Raise your hand if you had the Chicago Bears beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The odds all favored the Steelers, but the Bears pulled out a 23-17 win in overtime. That game is just one of the upsets from Week 3.
In the NFL, it seems like there are the “haves” (New England, Atlanta), the “have-nots” (Jets, Browns), and all those teams in between. Week 3 largely preserved this trend.
Still, predicting game outcomes is not an exact science. Injuries occur every day, and occasionally a key player will just have an inexcusably bad Sunday. Of course, a team that needs a big win can inexplicably run out of the tunnel flat and never find a spark.
One of Week’s 3 surprises was the game in London. The Jacksonville Jaguars routed the Baltimore Ravens 44-7 and, in the process, sent Joe Flacco to the bench early. It wasn’t even close even though the Ravens were favored.
Also on Sunday, the New York Jets, who were doubtful to win one game this season, topped the Miami Dolphins 20-6 despite the odds. The Buffalo Bills proved prognosticators wrong when they defeated the Denver Broncos 26-16.
On any given Sunday, no one really knows what will happen. It is what makes the NFL so great.
In Week 4, good matchups abound. Seattle is a huge favorite over Indianapolis, and the same with Atlanta over Buffalo. No surprise that New England gets the nod over the struggling Carolina Panthers. Can the Bears pull off a second straight upset? They play at Green Bay on Thursday night.
Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.
Click here to see Bing’s predictions for week 3 of the NFL.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
> Bing Predicts winner: Green Bay (72%)
> Kickoff time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thursday)
> Game spread: Green Bay -7.5
> Matchup history: Even at 94-94-6
The Bears haven’t won a road game since Dec. 27, 2015, while the Packers don’t lose often at Lambeau Field. In fact, Green Bay dropped just two at home in 2016 and are 1-0 at home this season. Yes. the Bears eked out an overtime win over the Steelers on Sunday, but give the nod to Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. The Bears have only topped Green Bay twice in their last 14 meetings. Did we mention we like Rodgers over Mike Glennon? Well, we do. This game could have all the ingredients for a classic NFC North battle. Or Rodgers, along the Packers defense, could make it look easy.
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New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (in London)
> Bing Predicts winner: New Orleans (64%)
> Kickoff time: 9:30 AM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pick’em
> Matchup history: Dolphins lead 6-5
Seriously, I think my golden retriever could predict this game. Well, except for one thing — it’s in London, where right is left and up is down. Just ask the Ravens, who got schooled there by the Jaguars on Sunday. Still, it’s easy to see why the Saints are favored. Despite their 1-2 record, the Saints won a big road game at moderately impressive Carolina. Also, Drew Brees is playing well (six touchdowns, no interceptions). The Dolphins (1-1) were trounced on Sunday 20-6 by the lowly Jets. Jay Cutler is no miracle worker in Miami, but he might get some help from Ndamukong Suh and the Dolphins defense — which is ranked 25th in the NFL, allowing 351.5 yards per game.
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Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons
> Bing Predicts winner: Atlanta (74%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Atlanta -9.5
> Matchup history: Falcons lead 7-4-0
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has the Falcons’ offense rolling so well that the defense doesn’t have to be spectacular — it just needs to do its job. Ryan isn’t perfect — he threw three interceptions in win over the Lions — but he’s steps ahead of Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Falcons ran for 151 yards against the Lions’ solid run defense. It’s not rocket science that the Falcons, the defending NFC champs, are the favorite at home.
The Bills (2-1) struggle on offense, averaging just 285.3 yards per game (26th in NFL). Running back LeSean McCoy scrambled for 110 yards in Week 1 but has just 30 rushing yards in the past two games combined. The Falcons have a score to settle after their heartbreak during the Super Bowl. For that to happen, they need to win games like these.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
> Bing Predicts winner: Cincinnati (58%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Cincinnati -3.5
> Matchup history: Bengals lead 48-39-0
It doesn’t say much about Ohio that both its NFL team are 0-3. The good news is that unless there’s a tie, one of them will win its first game on Sunday. The edge here goes to the Bengals, who showed signs of life when they took the Packers to overtime at Lambeau Field on Sunday. They did not score a touchdown in their first two games, but Andy Dalton threw a pair of them at Green Bay.
The Browns played tough at Indianapolis, but still lost 31-28. They were facing the Colts, not exactly an elite NFL team without Andrew Luck. Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer threw three interceptions against two touchdowns. In the battle of Ohio, the Bengals are the easy pick.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
> Bing Predicts winner: Dallas (70%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Dallas -9.5
> Matchup history: Cowboys lead 17-15-0
With Ezekiel Elliott coming off a big game (22 carries, 80 yards, and a touchdown) perhaps the Cowboys (2-1) are finding an offensive rhythm. Quarterback Dak Prescott was efficient and didn’t turn the ball over, throwing two touchdown passes in the Cowboys’ 28-17 Monday night win over Arizona. Although Rams quarterback Jared Goff threw for three scores in the win over the lowly 49ers, the Cowboys are the better team overall, with a stronger defense — which is why they’re the favorite in this matchup. However, keep an eye on Rams’ running back Todd Gurley, who gained 149 yards from scrimmage and scored three times. One last thought — Cowboys owner Jerry Jones knew what he was doing when he built the glitter palace that is home to the Cowboys. It’s a tough place to play for the road team.
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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
> Bing Predicts winner: Minnesota (52%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: No line
> Matchup history: Vikings lead 71-38-2
The Lions (2-1) have the better quarterback in Matthew Stafford, and they have won four of their last six contests against the Vikings, including a sweep in 2016. But none of this really matters. The Vikings (2-1), who have found a quarterback in Case Keenum until Sam Bradford returns, are favored — but not by much. Minnesota rookie running back Dalvin Cook averages 96 rushing yards per game, and he has made 10 catches too. It’s always easier for a quarterback to pull out a win with a solid run game. The Vikings have that; Detroit is working on it. The Lions came within a half yard of beating the defending NFC champion Falcons when a little-known NFL clock runoff rule ended the game after a Golden Tate touchdown was reversed on review. Expect the Lions to be a little angry when they arrive in the Twin Cities. It should be a close one with the edge to the Vikings at home.
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
> Bing Predicts winner: New England (77%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Day)
> Game spread: New England -9.5
> Matchup history: Tied 3-3-0
Tom Brady has proven he’s human early this season, losing the opener and then letting New England flounder most of the game on Sunday. The Patriots’ 40-year-old quarterback has got the defending Super Bowl champs on a two-game win streak after pulling out a last-second win over the Texans. Brady connected with Brandin Cooks for a 25-yard game-winning touchdown with 23 seconds left to pull out a 36-33 win over Houston. Naturally, the Patriots are favored here. Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in the last two games. It is thanks to their top-ranked defense that the Panthers are 2-1. Newton has been bothered with a shoulder injury. He assessed his performance on Sunday as “lackluster.” No argument here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
> Bing Predicts winner: Jacksonville (74%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Day)
> Game spread: Jacksonville -4
> Matchup history: Tied 6-6-0
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while, which explains the Jets’ 20-6 win over Miami. Of course, it helps when that squirrel is facing the Dolphins. No surprise that Jacksonville is the favorite here after decimating the Ravens in London on Sunday 44-7. It’s tough to get a real grip on the Jaguars, who routed their opponents in Weeks 1 and 3 but looked more like pussycats in their Week 2 blowout loss (37-16) to the Titans.
The Jaguars win when quarterback Blake Bortles does not throw the ball away. He had four touchdown passes in Sunday’s convincing win, with three of them caught by Marcedes Lewis. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette has rushed for a touchdown in each of the three games. It’s just taking a while for the Jaguars’ identity to be defined. The Jets have Josh McCown at quarterback, with Jermaine Kearse starting to feel at home after he was traded to the Jets on Sept. 1. Not much is expected from the Jets this season. That certainly includes this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
> Bing Predicts winner: Pittsburgh (58%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pittsburgh -1
> Matchup history: Steelers lead 25-21-0
Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was benched in the 44-7 loss to the Jaguars in London on Sunday in favor of Ryan Mallett. The veteran quarterback had two interceptions, no touchdowns, 28 yards, and a miserable 12.0 quarterback rating when he was asked to take a seat. Even though the Steelers (2-1) were upset by the Bears, at this point they are certainly a better team than Baltimore. Pittsburgh has the NFL’s second best defense allowing, just 259.3 yards per game. Meanwhile the Ravens (2-1) own the worst offense, averaging 263.7 yards per game. Strange things can happen in London. If that game was just an outlier, maybe the Ravens would have a chance at home. Don’t count on it though.
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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
> Bing Predicts winner: Tennessee (64%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Tennessee -1
> Matchup history: Titans lead 16-14-0
It’s early, but the Texans (1-2) have been one of the NFL’s bigger disappointments this season. It’s been the opposite for the Titans (2-1), who have topped Jacksonville and Seattle. They’re the favorite in this matchup. In that 33-27 win over the Seahawks, Marcus Mariota completed two touchdown passes, doubling his total from the first two games. Running back DeMarco Murray carried 14 times for 115 yards and a touchdown.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in the 36-33 loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Jadeveon Clowney finished with two sacks, his first two this season. Houston’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack (14th in the NFL), when it should be much higher with its personnel.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
> Bing Predicts winner: Arizona (67%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Arizona -7.5
> Matchup history: 49ers lead 29-22-0
Arizona (1-2) is coming off a short week after losing to Dallas on Monday night. Cardinals coach Bruce Arians called out the offensive line for not giving quarterback Carson Palmer enough protection. Palmer was sacked a half-dozen times by the Cowboys, bringing the total to 11 in three games. It’s possible that one of those times he just won’t be able to get up. That shouldn’t be on Sunday, when Arizona faces the hapless 49ers (0-3). Although they did show a pulse when they scored five touchdowns in a 41-39 loss to the Rams, after zero touchdowns in the first two games, the Cardinals are favored at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers
> Bing Predicts winner: Los Angeles (52%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pick’em
> Matchup history: Chargers lead 7-4-0
The Eagles (2-1) will be hurting without running back Darren Sproles, who is likely done for the season after he broke an arm and tore an ACL on the same play on Sunday. Ouch. This could be one reason the winless Chargers (0-3) are slightly favored. It’s certainly not because of home turf advantage. The Chargers, who moved from San Diego, are playing temporarily in a 27,000-seat stadium that they can’t fill up. They lost 24-10 to the Chiefs when quarterback Philip Rivers threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. He connected five times with wide receiver Travis Benjamin for 105 yards. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a 27-24 win over the Giants thanks to a 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz passed for 176 yards and one touchdown. However, he was sacked three times, which brings the total to 11 in three games.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Bing Predicts winner: New York (57%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
> Matchup history: Giants lead 14-6-0
This prediction is a bit of a head-scratcher since the Giants (0-3) are still looking for their first win. However, just take a closer look at the quarterbacks. New York quarterback Eli Manning is playing behind a weak offensive line — although he managed not to take a sack in Sunday’s 27-24 loss to the Eagles. He has four touchdowns and the same number of interceptions in the first three games. Still, he is Eli Manning. Tampa’s Jameis Winston threw a pair of touchdowns and three interceptions in the 34-17 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. Bucs’ wide receiver DeSean Jackson had a good game with four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. In a toss-up game you would want Manning at the helm. (Wouldn’t you?) Edge to the Giants.
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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
> Bing Predicts winner: Denver (55%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pick’em
> Matchup history: Raiders lead 62-51-2
The Broncos get the nod here coming off a 16-26 loss to the Bills, their first of the season. In that game, Trevor Siemian passed for 259 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for a score. The Broncos played their first two at home and won both. They are tough to beat in the thin air of Denver. Oakland, meanwhile, lost to Washington 26-16 on Sunday. In that one, Derek Carr threw for 262 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Marshawn Lynch had just six carries for 18 yards. It could be a nail-biter, but the Broncos play well at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
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Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
> Bing Predicts winner:Seattle (80%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Seattle -13.5
> Matchup history: Colts lead 7-4-0
Of all the predictions this week, the Seahawks are the most heavily favored. They’re playing at home and quarterback Russell Wilson is heating up, while the Colts are still sorely missing quarterback Andrew Luck. Plus, the Seahawks fans take pride in making CenturyLink Field a tough place for opponents to play. They do a great job. They are loud, proud, and powered by plenty of strong coffee and assorted adult beverages. Wilson had no touchdown passes in the first two games, but he had four in the 33-27 loss to the Titans on Sunday. The prediction doesn’t necessarily mean the Seahawks (1-2) are an elite team, but rather that the Colts (1-2) are not even close. Jacoby Brissett got the start at quarterback in the Colts’ 31-28 win over the Browns. Indianapolis needs Luck, no doubt about it.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
> Bing Predicts winner: Kansas City (61%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Monday)
> Game spread: Kansas City -9
> Matchup history: Chiefs lead 8-1-0
Quarterback Alex Smith and rookie running back sensation Kareem Hunt are two of the big reasons the Chiefs are favored in this Monday night showdown. Hunt has six touchdowns (four rushing) in his first three games, which ties him with Billy Sims (1980 Detroit Lions) and Dutch Sternaman (1920 Decatur Staleys) for most touchdowns in their first three games. That’s pretty good company. Smith has maintained his good start, leading the Chiefs to a 3-0 mark. Washington’s Kirk Cousins connected six times with wide receiver Chris Thompson for 150 yards and one touchdown in the 27-10 win over the Raiders. Cousins finished with 365 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Impressive, but he’s no Alex Smith. The Chiefs and Falcons are the only undefeated teams after three weeks.
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