It seems that no one told the Carolina Panthers that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were heavily favored in Week 4. So after a lackluster personal start in the first three games (two touchdowns, four interceptions), Cam Newton came up big for the Panthers, leading them to a 33-30 upset win. The Patriots fell to 2-2. What’s the NFL world coming to?

Don’t blame Brady. It’s the miscommunication on the Patriots’ defense that is a big issue for the defending Super Bowl champions. Coach Bill Belichick has some work to do.

It was a Sunday of upsets. The heavily favored, high-flying Atlanta Falcons were taken down by the Buffalo Bills, 23-17. And in Dallas, the Rams (yes, the Rams) topped the Cowboys 35-30 on their home turf.

So what’s on tap for Week 5?

Can the Patriots get back on the winning track at Tampa Bay on Thursday night? Despite two losses, they are favored. The Pittsburgh Steelers are also the heavy favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Has someone told the Jags they don’t have a chance? Probably not.

The Detroit Lions are favored for the first time this season when they play the Panthers. Can Newton pull another upset? Admittedly, this would be on a much smaller scale. The red-hot Lions, playing before a loud-and-proud Ford Field crowd, should be a handful.

Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.

See all NFL predictions on Bing

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Bing Predicts winner: New England (80%)
> Kickoff time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thursday)
> Game spread: New England -4
> Matchup history: Patriots lead 6-2

If only Tom Brady could play defense. After losing two of three at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots’ defense has been under scrutiny. Lack of execution? Check. Communication woes? You bet. Still, the defending Super Bowl champs (2-2) are favored over the Bucs (2-1). It will be Brady’s first game at Tampa Bay. Coach Belichick has just a few days to turn around this team since the Patriots play on Thursday night. Can he do it? If any coach can, it would be the hooded one.

The Bucs’ Jameis Winston is coming off one of the best games of his career with three touchdowns and 8.7 yards per attempt, connecting with his receivers for four plays of more than 30 yards.

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Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
> Bing Predicts winner: Buffalo (52%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Cincinnati -3.5
> Matchup history: Bills lead 16-14-0

If you aren’t a believer in the Bills just yet, ask Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the Bills on Sunday, what they think. The Bills defense held the typically explosive Falcons to 17 points and forced three fumbles. No wonder the Bills are favored over the Bengals, who beat the Browns (0-4) in the battle of Ohio’s winless NFL teams on Sunday. Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor is playing well enough to win, but the Bills defense is key to their 3-1 start. The Bengals’ Andy Dalton, who had been struggling, had little trouble breaking down the Browns’ defense by tossing four touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
> Bing Predicts winner: New York (58%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Cleveland -2.5
> Matchup history: Browns lead 13-11-0

At this point, basically any team facing the Browns is favored. Still, let’s give the Jets a little credit. After an 0-2 start they’ve won two straight, including Sunday’s overtime 23-20 win over the Jaguars. Running back Bilal Powell had a career day with 190 all-purpose yards (163 yards rushing) and a touchdown. Quarterback Josh McCown completed 22 of 31 passes for 224 yards.

Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer threw an interception and finished with just 118 passing yards and a low-end 43.5 quarterback rating in a 31-7 loss to the Bengals. When the season started this could have been a toss-up game, but the Jets have been a surprise. At least, so far.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
> Bing Predicts winner: Detroit (53%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Detroit -3
> Matchup history: Panthers lead 5-2-0

The Lions get no respect — they are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. That’s starting to change with their 3-1 start, and if you ask any Detroiter, they’ll tell you the Lions were six inches from 4-0. There is still plenty of second-guessing about the questionable clock runoff at the end of the loss to the Falcons in Week 3. The tide is starting to change for Detroit, which is one reason the Lions are favored against the Panthers. Their defense has made quite a statement — they’re talented, physical and speedy. They’ve created 11 turnovers in four games. Matthew Stafford didn’t play his best on Sunday, but the defense ensured the win at Minnesota.

Of course, the Panthers are coming off a huge road win at New England. Quarterback Cam Newton had a good day (three touchdowns, one interception) compared with his first three games when he had two touchdowns against four interceptions.

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San Francisco 49rs at Indianapolis Colts
> Bing Predicts winner: Indianapolis (52%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Indianapolis -2.5
> Matchup history: Colts lead 25-19-0

Between these two teams, they have just one win — and that belongs to the home-team Colts. So of course they are favored. The good news for the Colts is Andrew Luck, who is getting closer to a return from shoulder surgery. The bad news is it won’t be this Sunday. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett is improving but he is no Luck. The leading rusher for the Colts was Frank Gore, who gained just 46 yards.

The 49ers came close to getting their first win but lost 18-15 in overtime to the Arizona Cardinals. Brian Hoyer is the San Francisco quarterback, and Coach Kyle Shanahan said there is no controversy. He’s going forward with Hoyer. Rookie C.J. Beathard is the backup.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
> Bing Predicts winner: Tennessee (67%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Tennessee -2.5
> Matchup history: Dolphins lead 19-17-0

Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is day-to-day with a hamstring injury. His absence likely would mean Matt Cassel, who is far less mobile, will get the start. No matter the quarterback, the Titans (2-2) are favored on the road at the Dolphins, who have lost two straight.

Miami coach Adam Gase is not happy that Jay Cutler is getting so much blame for the 1-2 start. He has no plans to bench the veteran quarterback, who has two touchdown passes, two interceptions, and has been sacked nine times overall. The Dolphins have scored just two touchdowns in their first three games. The Titans might get off to a slow start. The Dolphins have not allowed a point in the first quarter all season.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
> Bing Predicts winner: New York (58%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Giants -4
> Matchup history: Chargers lead 6-5-0

Well, one of the teams in this matchup will finally get its first win. Both are 0-4. The Giants get the nod as they’re at home and they’ve been improving — even if this improvement has yet to result in a win. They lost to the Bucs on a late field goal on Sunday. After a slow start to the season, Odell Beckham Jr. is picking up steam and had his best game with 90 receiving yards against Tampa Bay. Quarterback Eli Manning had his first game this season without an interception on Sunday. (It’s the little things.) Manning is looking to defeat the team he spurned in 2004 — when he forced the Chargers, who drafted him, to then trade him to the Giants.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and running back Melvin Gordon are frustrated they can’t find a way to win. The fans have stayed back in San Diego, so it’s like they’re playing 16 road games, which equals more frustration. The Giants have not beaten the Chargers since 1998.

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Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
> Bing Predicts winner: Philadelphia (55%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Philadelphia -6.5
> Matchup history: Cardinals lead 59-55-5

Larry Fitzgerald may be a senior citizen as an NFL wide receiver, but the 34-year-old Cardinals’ mainstay will provide a huge test for the Eagles’ secondary. It’s not all about Fitzgerald. Quarterback Carson Palmer has other speedy weapons in wide receivers Jaron Brown, Andre Ellington, and J.J. Nelson.

That’s all good, but the Eagles get the edge in part due to running back LeGarrette Blount, who had 156 yards (136 rushing) on Sunday in the win over the Chargers. Quarterback Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in the last two games, and overall he has six touchdowns against just two picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
> Bing Predicts winner: Pittsburgh (74%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pittsburgh -9
> Matchup history: Jaguars lead 12-11-0

Have Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger made up yet? After the Steelers quarterback didn’t throw to a wide-open Brown on Sunday, the wide receiver went to the sideline and tossed a Gatorade cooler in disgust. Two days later, Roethlisberger called the scene a distraction. Regardless, the Steelers (3-1) should be back on the same page on Sunday when they’re heavily favored over the inconsistent Jaguars (2-2). Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell had his best game on Sunday, which is another good sign for the Steelers. And the stingy Steelers defense is second-best in the NFL, allowing just 267.0 yards per game.

Jaguars’ rookie Leonard Fournette racked up 145 all-purpose yards in the overtime loss to the Jets, but quarterback Blake Bortles has struggled with a completion percentage of 54.5 (just 42.9% against the Jets). It all adds up for the Steelers.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders
> Bing Predicts winner: Oakland (52%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Oakland -4
> Matchup history: Ravens lead 7-3-0

Joe Flacco and the Ravens (2-2) would like to forget this season and start over. No such luck. The Ravens followed up an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars in London with a 26-9 beatdown from the Steelers. At the quarter-pole mark, the Ravens are one of the biggest disappointments. Flacco shoulders much of the blame. So even though the Raiders will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr, who has a fracture in his back, and both teams are 2-2, Oakland still should dismiss the lowly Ravens.

E.J. Manuel is expected to start in Carr’s place. It’s not like the Raiders’ offense is lighting it up either. They’re 28th in the NFL, averaging 287.8 yards per game, while the Ravens are two spots lower at 269.8 yards per game.

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Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
> Bing Predicts winner: Seattle (52%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pick’em
> Matchup history: Seahawks lead 22-16-0

While this is expected to be another close game, the edge goes to the Seahawks (2-2) over the Rams (3-1), who are riding a two-game win streak. Make no mistake. Running back Todd Gurley is the Rams offense. He makes quarterback Jared Goff look good. All Goff has to do is get the ball in Gurley’s hands, either for yards on the ground or through the air. Gurley had 121 rushing yards and 94 receiving yards in the Rams’ win over the Cowboys in Dallas.

The Seahawks don’t have a Gurley — no one does — although the they feature multidimensional wide receiver Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks will be without running back Chris Carson who broke an ankle on Sunday night and also without defensive end Cliff Avril (neck), who will be out “a while.” Russell Wilson gets the edge over Goff.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
> Bing Predicts winner: Dallas (52%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Dallas -2.5
> Matchup history: Packers 18-17-0

This could be one of Sunday’s closer games. Dallas gets the edge over Green Bay, and it is obviously not all about the quarterback matchup. Rather, it’s about an injury-depleted Packers’ offense and the home crowd in the House That Jerry Jones Built. The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers is hands-down a better quarterback than Dak Prescott. Rodgers can practically will the Packers to win, especially in tight games.

Wide receiver Davante Adams, who was concussed on Sunday, could return to action. That would help the Packers, who could be missing left tackle David Bakhtiari (hamstring), right tackle Bryan Bulaga (ankle), running back Ty Montgomery (ribs), and running back Jamaal Williams (knee). Rodgers is getting help from a stingy defense ranked sixth in the NFL, allowing just 299 yards per game. They will have their hands full with Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Dez Bryant. A healthy Cowboys offense should be the difference here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
> Bing Predicts winner: Kansas City (64%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Kansas City -1.5
> Matchup history: Chiefs lead 5-4-0

After four weeks, the Chiefs are the last undefeated team left standing. So it’s not surprising that they get the edge in this matchup with the Texans, who are coming off a blowout 57-14 win over the Titans. Kansas City has a short week after playing on Monday night, but the Chiefs should be pumped, coming off yet another win. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt averages 125.5 yards per game, and quarterback Alex Smith is playing like his job depended on it.

They’ll have to get through Houston’s defense, which is ranked fifth in the NFL, allowing just 291.5 yards per game. Texans outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney has three sacks in the last two games, while defensive end J.J. Watt is still looking for his first.

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
> Bing Predicts winner: Minnesota (67%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Monday)
> Game spread: Minnesota -3
> Matchup history: Vikings lead 58-52-2

It’s a key NFC North matchup, and even though it’s at Soldier Field, the Vikings (2-2) get the edge. They will be without running back Dalvin Cook (torn ACL) the rest of the season, putting a huge dent in their offense. Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford could return after a three-game absence with a bum knee. If he’s not ready, Case Keenum will get the nod again.

After a 1-3 start with Mike Glennon, the Bears will give rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky a shot. No pressure at all — a big division game on Monday night with all the world watching. All eyes will be on the rookie. He says he’s ready, so we will see. If he is the Bears’ future, there is no use waiting any longer. The Vikings have won four of the last five matchups against the Bears. They can make that five of six on Monday night.

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