Special Report
Cities Where Incomes Are Shrinking the Fastest
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Total personal income in the United States climbed for the third consecutive year in 2016. Nationwide, the total amount Americans took home rose 1.1% — from $14.2 trillion in 2015 to $14.4 trillion in 2016. Factoring in population growth over the same period, per capita income inched up by a relatively modest 0.4%, and now stands at $44,450.
Per capita income growth was generally strongest in and around major American cities. However, there were several exceptions. In a number of metro areas, per capita income fell considerably in 2016.
Each metro area economy is unique, and a decline in income per capita in a certain area can be attributed to any number of causes. In some cities, the rapidly falling per capita income was the product of employment and wage declines in major industries — and often symptomatic of broader economic trouble.
In other cities, a dip in per capita income is simply the result of population growth outpacing income growth — and not necessarily an indication of economic decline.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed one-year changes in per capita income in U.S. metro areas to identify the cities where incomes are shrinking the fastest. Per capita income is total personal income divided by the population. The declines in 2016 in per capita income range from 2.2% to 8.8%.
Click here to see the cities where incomes are shrinking the fastest.
Click here to see our detailed findings and methodology.
25. Mankato-North Mankato, MN
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.2%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 6.0%
> Per capita income: $43,319
> May 2018 unemployment 2.4%
After climbing for six consecutive years, per capita income fell by 2.2% in the Mankato metro area in 2016. The last time per capita income dipped in the area was from 2008 to 2009, in the midst of the Great Recession. Despite the dip in 2016, Mankato’s income per capita of $43,319 is 6% higher than it was half a decade prior.
While income growth is lagging, the metro area’s job market remains strong. Just 2.4% of workers in the area are out of a job, the lowest unemployment rate of any Minnesota metro area and well below the May national unemployment rate of 3.8%.
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24. New Orleans-Metairie, LA
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.2%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 7.7%
> Per capita income: $44,979
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.5%
The total income of all workers in the New Orleans-Metairie metro area was 1.6% lower in 2016 than in 2015, even as the population increased by 0.5% over the same period. On a per capita basis, income fell by 2.2% from about $46,000 in 2015 to $45,000 in 2016. The metro area’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism — and income in the region fell despite a record 10.5 million visitors who spent some $7.4 billion in 2016.
The decline in per capita income in New Orleans is likely partially attributable to the oil industry. Oil and gas extraction and related fields account for a larger than typical share of employment and income in the metro area, and oil prices plummeted in both 2014 and 2015, hitting lows not seen in well over a decade in 2016. Total wages in the oil and gas extraction industry in New Orleans fell by 16.7% that year.
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23. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.2%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 12.6%
> Per capita income: $48,728
> May 2018 unemployment: 2.5%
The Denver metro area population grew by 1.4% in 2016, nearly three times the national population growth of 0.5% over the same period. Overall income did not climb commensurately, however. Per capita income in the Denver metro area was $48,728 in 2016, down 2.2% from the year before. Despite the dip, longer-term income growth in the area has been far faster than average. Over the last half decade, per capita income rose by 12.6% in the metro area — a greater increase than in the majority of cities and the 9.0% national average.
Long term income growth has likely contributed to the relative lack of financial hardship in the metro area. Denver’s 9.4% poverty rate is among the lowest of U.S. metro areas and well below the 14.0% U.S. poverty rate.
22. San Angelo, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.3%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 2.5%
> Per capita income: $41,582
> May 2018 unemployment: 3.2%
Per capita income in the San Angelo metro area fell for the second consecutive year in 2016 to $41,582 from $42,547 in 2015. The 2.3% decline was among the largest of any U.S. metro area. For reference, per capita income climbed 0.4% nationwide over the same period.
Like many other metro areas on this list, oil and gas extraction accounts for a larger than typical share of employment and wages in San Angelo. Plummeting oil prices in 2015 and 2016 likely largely explain the fall in per capita income in the area. Employment in the industry fell by 8.2% in 2016 and total wages in the industry fell by 7.8%.
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21. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.3%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 15.6%
> Per capita income: $75,635
> May 2018 unemployment: 3.6%
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. The metro area’s population increased by 2.2% from 2015 to 2016, more than four time the national population growth of 0.5% over that time. Income growth has not kept pace, however. Over the same period, total income remained flat and per capita income fell by 2.3%. This may be largely due to a rapidly growing retired population as the number of area residents 65 and older increased by 4.9% in 2016, faster than the comparable 4.7% national increase.
Despite the decline in per capita income, the area remains among the highest earning in the country. Per capita income in the Naples metro area is $75,635, about $31,200 more than per capita income nationwide.
20. Morgantown, WV
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.3%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -0.7%
> Per capita income: $38,691
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.4%
Morgantown is one of two West Virginia metro areas with a near nation-leading decline in income per capita in 2016. Per capita income fell in the Morgantown metro area by 2.3% in 2016 even as per capita income climbed by 0.4% nationwide the same year. While there has been no consistent pattern of growth or decline year by year in the metro area, over the last half decade, per capita income in the metro area declined by 0.7%. Many Morgantown residents are feeling the pinch. The SNAP — formerly known as Food Stamp — recipiency rate in the area climbed from 8.4% in 2011 to 13.6% in 2016. Over the same period, the poverty rate climbed from 18.1% to 20.1%.
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19. Parkersburg-Vienna, WV
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 5.0%
> Per capita income: $39,276
> May 2018 unemployment: 5.7%
By several measures, the Parkersburg-Vienna metro area’s economy is stagnating. Per capita income fell for the second consecutive year in 2016, declining by 2.4%. Currently, 5.7% of the metro area’s labor force is out of a job, one of higher metro area unemployment rates nationwide and well above the May U.S. unemployment rate of 3.8%. Per capita income in the area relatively low at just $39,276 — about $5,200 less than the national per capita income.
The area is also rapidly losing residents. From 2015 to 2016, Parkersburg-Vienna’s population fell by 2.4%, nearly the steepest one-year decline of any metro area.
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18. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 9.6%
> Per capita income: $67,841
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.5%
Like every other Florida metro area on this list, Sebastian-Vero Beach’s population is growing rapidly. From 2015 to 2016, the metro area’s population climbed by 2.5% — five times the national population growth rate the same year. Income growth of 0.1% in 2016 was not enough to keep pace, and as a result, per capita income fell by 2.4% in 2016. This may be largely due to a rapidly growing retired population. The number of area residents 65 and older increased by 6.5% in 2016, faster than the comparable 4.7% national increase.
Despite the decline in 2016, the longer term per capita income growth in the area remains high. Over the last five years per capita income grew by 9.6%. For reference, national per capita income grew by 9.0% over the same period. The last time income per capita fell in the Sebastian-Vero Beach metro area was during the Great Recession, from 2008 to 2009.
17. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 3.1%
> Per capita income: $43,309
> May 2018 unemployment: 3.4%
Total personal income grew by 0.7% in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area in 2016. Still, the increase in personal income did not keep pace with population growth. The metro area’s population increased by 2.9%, from 702,000 in 2015 to 722,300 in 2016, nearly six times the 0.5% U.S. population growth over the same period. As a result, per capita income in Cape Coral-Fort Myers fell by 2.4% in 2016.
In every Florida metro area on this list — including Cape Coral-Fort Myers — the rapidly growing population is fueling demand for new housing and development. Partially as a result, construction accounts for 10.5% of total private industry employment in Cape Coral-Fort Myers, more than double the industry’s employment share on a national scale. Growth in employment and wages in the construction industry in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area partially offset declines in other industries.
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16. Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.7%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 9.6%
> Per capita income: $45,168
> May 2018 unemployment: 5.3%
Income per capita fell for the first time in five years in the Shreveport-Bossier City metro area. The area’s income per capita of $45,168 is 2.7% lower than in 2015. Oil and gas extraction is a major industry in the area, employing a five times larger share of workers than the comparable nationwide share. The area’s relative dependence on oil and gas extraction likely partially explains the falling per capita income. Oil prices plummeted globally in both 2014 and 2015, hitting lows not seen in well over a decade in 2016. Both employment and total wages in the metro area’s oil and gas extraction industry fell by roughly 20% that year.
Despite the recent decline, per capita income over the last half decade has kept pace with income growth nationwide. Per capita income is up 9.6% from 2011 compared to the 9.0% increase over the same five year period nationwide.
15. Sebring, FL
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -2.8%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 4.6%
> Per capita income: $35,303
> May 2018 unemployment: 5.2%
Income growth has been relatively slow in the Sebring, Florida, metro area in recent years. Over the last half decade, per capita income grew by just 4.6%, nearly half the nationwide 9.0% income growth over the same time. The slower five-year growth in Sebring is attributable in larger part to a 2.8% decline in per capita income in 2016 alone.
Sebring’s economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting. The industry employs 9.3% of the area’s workforce, about 10 times the share of workers nationwide employed in the industry. The decline in per capita income is likely due to declines in wages and employment in the sector. From 2015 to 2016, total wages in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting in the metro area fell by 11.4% and industry employment dipped by 15.9%.
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14. Abilene, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -3.0%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 5.5%
> Per capita income: $40,409
> May 2018 unemployment: 3.3%
Abilene is one of several Texas metro areas to report a decline in per capita income in 2016. As is the case in other metro areas in the state, the decline in per capita income in Abilene is largely attributable to falling oil prices. The concentration of oil and gas extraction workers in the metro area is more than four times the national concentration — and in 2016, oil prices hit a multi year low. Falling oil prices contributed to considerable employment and wage declines in the metro area’s oil and gas extraction sector. Both wages and employment in the industry dipped by about a third from 2015 to 2016.
By some measures, Abilene’s economy has improved as oil prices have rebounded in recent months. Currently, just 3.3% of the labor force is unemployed, below the national unemployment rate of 3.8% and considerably lower than the metro area’s peak 2016 jobless rate of 4.1%.
13. Tyler, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -3.0%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 3.2%
> Per capita income: $48,269
> May 2018 unemployment: 3.7%
Per capita income fell in Tyler, Texas, in 2016 for the first time since the Great Recession. A far larger than typical share of workers in the metro area work in oil and gas extraction, and the decline in per capita income is likely tied to the decline in oil prices from 2014 to 2016, when oil prices bottomed out. Employment in the metro area’s oil and gas extraction industry dipped by 22.5% and total industry wages fell 18.2%. Over the last half decade, per capita income rose by 3.2% in the metro area, well below the 9.0% increase nationwide over the same period.
While per capita income growth is lagging in the metro area, the job market remains relatively healthy. The 3.7% unemployment rate in Tyler is slightly lower than the 3.8% unemployment rate nationwide and is a considerable improvement from the 4.7% unemployment peak in the city in 2016.
12. The Villages, FL
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -3.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -0.2%
> Per capita income: $38,557
> May 2018 unemployment: 5.2%
As is the case in every other Florida metro area on this list, overall income is not growing as fast as the population in The Villages. The metro area’s population grew by 4.3% in 2016, nearly the most of any city in the country. Meanwhile, total income climbed by 0.8%. As a result, per capita income fell by 3.4% in metro area in 2016. Retirees likely comprised a large share of the metro area’s population growth as the already substantial 65 and older population in The Villages grew 7.0% in 2016.
The decline fits into a longer-term trend as per capita income in the metro area declined 0.2% over the last half decade. Incomes fell on a per capita basis in three out of the last four years, including 2016, largely wiping out near nation leading per capita income increases in from 2009 through 2012.
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11. Longview, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -3.8%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -5.4%
> Per capita income: $40,405
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.3%
Longview, Texas, is one of several metro areas on this list with an economy that depends heavily on the energy sector. The price of oil fell from the middle of 2014 through 2016, and American cities like Longview were hit hard. Employment in the metro area’s oil and gas extraction industry fell by 29.5% in 2016. Meanwhile, overall unemployment in Longview climbed from 5.3% at the end of 2015 to 6.3% at the end of 2016. The industry’s struggles and the weakening job market likely had an effect on income. Per capita income in Longview fell by 3.8% in 2016 and by 5.4% over the last five years.
However, as oil prices have rebounded in recent months, economic conditions are improving in the city. Longview’s unemployment rate has fallen in each of the last three months and currently sits at 4.3%.
10. Anchorage, AK
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -3.9%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -0.1%
> Per capita income: $48,031
> May 2018 unemployment: 6.5%
Alaska has some of the largest oil fields in the country and more proved oil reserves than all but three other states. With an economy heavily dependent on energy production, Alaska has been hit harder than most states by falling oil prices in recent years. In Anchorage, the largest city in the state, employment in oil and gas extraction fell by 22% from 2015 to 2016. Total wages in the sector fell by 23% over the same period. The industry’s decline likely contributed to the metro area’s 3.9% drop in per capita income across all sectors in 2016.
The metro area’s job market is not indicative of a healthy economy. Some 6.5% of the workforce in the Anchorage metro area is unemployed, nearly double the 3.8% U.S. unemployment rate.
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9. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -5.1%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 1.8%
> Per capita income: $46,378
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.4%
Per capita income fell by 5.1% in the Houston metro area in 2016, a steeper drop than in all but eight other metro areas nationwide. The drop was likely due in large part to declines in the oil and gas extraction industry. Precipitated in part by falling oil prices, employment in oil and gas extraction fell by 12.1%, and total wages in the sector declined by 9.8% from 2015 to 2016.
Still, the decline in per capita income in 2016 was not large enough to completely offset the longer term trend of climbing income per capita. Over the last five years, per capita income increased by 1.8% in the Houston metro area.
8. Victoria, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -5.2%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 2.9%
> Per capita income: $42,678
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.1%
As with most other Texas cities on this list, Victoria’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas extraction. As the price of oil fell to its lowest point in over a decade in 2016, Victoria’s energy sector took a hit. Employment in oil and gas extraction fell by 39.7% from 2015 to 2016, with total industry wages falling by 41.6% over the same period. The industry’s downsizing had broader economic implications, and across all sectors income per capita fell by 5.2% in Victoria in 2016.
Despite the recent decline, per capita income was 2.9% higher in Victoria in 2016 than it was half a decade earlier.
7. Casper, WY
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -5.3%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 21.0%
> Per capita income: $64,266
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.4%
Per capita income fell by 5.3% in the Casper metro area in 2016, the first year-over-year decline since the Great Recession. Despite the recent decline, incomes remain far higher in the Casper metro area than they were five years ago. Per capita income climbed 21% in Casper from 2011 to 2016, the sixth largest increase of any metro area in the country.
The oil and gas extraction industry accounts for more than one in every $10 in wages paid out to workers in the Casper metro area, and declining oil prices in 2016 likely largely explain the drop in income per capita in the metro area. As oil prices hit their lowest level in over a decade in 2016, the metro area’s oil and gas extraction sector shed 40% of its workforce and total wages in the industry fell by nearly 47%.
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6. Midland, MI
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -6.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -14.2%
> Per capita income: $40,822
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.3%
Along with Mankato, Minnesota, Midland, Michigan is one of only two Midwestern metro areas on this list. Per capita income fell by 6.4% in Midland in 2016. The decline is a part of a longer term trend as, with the exception of 2011, incomes have fallen in the metro area every year since the Great Recession. As it stands, the metro area’s per capita income of $40,822 is 14.2% lower than it was half a decade ago. For reference, per capita income is up 9.0% over the same period nationwide.
Despite falling income per capita, Midland households are less likely to be face serious financial hardship than those across the country. Some 8.2% of the population in Midland lives in poverty, one of the smallest shares of any metro area and well below the 14.0% national poverty rate. Similarly, only 4.5% of area households earn less than $10,000 per year compared to 6.7% of households nationwide.
5. Houma-Thibodaux, LA
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -6.4%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 0.7%
> Per capita income: $42,177
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.8%
From 2015 to 2016, per capita income in the Houma-Thibodaux metro area fell by 6.4%. The drop was likely the result of considerable employment declines across multiple industries. The metro area’s oil and gas industry shed 24.0% of its workers, while construction employment contracted by 9.2%, manufacturing by 22.3%, and transportation and warehousing by 19.9%. By the end of 2016, 6.5% of the metro area’s labor force was unemployed, well above the 4.7% national unemployment rate at the time. These contractions as well as the stagnating broader area economy are largely attributable to the decline of the oil industry, as oil prices hit their lowest point in more than a decade in 2016.
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4. Odessa, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -6.8%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -6.6%
> Per capita income: $38,918
> May 2018 unemployment: 2.8%
Few cities lost a larger share of residents in 2016 than Odessa, Texas. The metro area’s population contracted by 1.2% in 2016, even as the U.S. population grew by 0.5%. Incomes in the metro area fell even faster that year. Lead largely by wage decline in oil and gas extraction and transportation and warehousing, income per capita fell by 6.8% — in Odessa.
Odessa is heavily dependent on its oil and gas sector, and as oil prices have rebounded from a multi-decade low in 2016, some economic conditions have been improving. For example, the metro area’s 2.8% unemployment rate is well below the 3.8% national rate and less than half the area’s 6.7% unemployment rate in mid-2016.
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3. Tulsa, OK
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -7.8%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: 6.8%
> Per capita income: $50,151
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.0%
Per capita income fell by 7.8% in the Tulsa metro area in 2016, one year after it dropped by 8.5%. These precipitous drops were not enough to offset earlier income gains since the Great Recession, and the five-year income growth remains positive. Currently, Tulsa’s income per capita of $50,151 is 6.8% higher than it was half a decade ago.
By some measures, Tulsa’s economy has recovered considerably in recent months. While the unemployment rate in Tulsa was at 5.2% as recently as August 2016, the share of unemployed workers in the metro area since fallen to 4.0%
2. Lafayette, LA
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -7.9%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -4.1%
> Per capita income: $40,491
> May 2018 unemployment: 4.8%
Per capita income fell by 7.9% in Lafayette, Louisiana in 2016, the largest drop of any U.S. metro area after Midland, Texas. Lafayette is one of many cities in the South where the drop in per capita income is tied to the contraction of the oil and gas extraction sector. Employment in the sector fell by 22%, and total wages fell by over 25% in 2016. That year, global oil prices hit their lowest point in well over a decade.
Over the last five years, per capita income in the metro area declined by 4.1%, compared to a 9.0% increase nationwide. Over the same period, the metro area’s poverty rate climbed from 18.6% to 20.3%, and the share of residents who rely on SNAP benefits — formerly known as food stamps — jumped from 10.5% to 16.6%.
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1. Midland, TX
> Per capita income growth in 2016: -8.8%
> 5 yr. per capita income growth: -2.0%
> Per capita income: $93,204
> May 2018 unemployment: 2.2%
In both 2011 and 2010, Midland, Texas, had nation leading per capita income growth — at 16.2% and 29.8%, respectively. For reference, national per capita income growth was just 0.6% and 2.9% in those years. Income growth has slowed in Midland since then, and per capita income contracted by 8.8% in 2016, the largest decline of any metro area that year.
As is the case with many other metro areas on this list — and every other metro area in Texas with falling per capita income — the decline in per capita income in Midland in recent years is closely tied to the drop in the price of oil. The oil and gas extraction sector, one of the largest employers in the metro area, took a hit when oil prices hit their lowest level in over a decade in 2016. Oil prices have steadily recovered since, however, and now just 2.2% of the metro area’s workforce is unemployed, less than half the five-year peak unemployment rate of 4.6% in September 2016.
Detailed Findings
In any American city — on this list or not — declines in overall wages or employment in a single industry can have far reaching economic implications. The effects can be especially profound when a suffering industry is the backbone of the local economy.
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, churning out an average of 14.5 million barrels per day. When oil prices plummeted in 2014 and 2015, reaching their lowest level in over a decade in 2016, dozens of American cities felt the pinch — and many of them are on this list.
In over half of the cities where income per capita fell the most in 2016, the concentration of workers employed in mining or oil and gas extraction is more than double the concentration nationwide. And in each of those metro areas, the oil and gas extraction sector reported considerable employment and wage declines from 2015 to 2016.
In Casper, Wyoming, for example, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction fell by 40.1%, and industry wages fell by 46.8% from 2015 to 2016. Partially as a result, income per capita in the metro area fell by 5.3% in 2016.
For many of the cities on this list in Louisiana, Texas, and Wyoming, where falling per capita income is attributable to declines in the oil and gas industry, the decline has had serious implications for large shares of residents. For example, SNAP benefit recipiency increased in nine of the 14 metro areas with relatively large oil and gas extraction industries in 2016.
Encouragingly, oil prices have rebounded since 2016, and unemployment rates in many of the same cities have declined through 2017 and 2018. Whether or not climbing oil prices and improved unemployment translates to higher per capita income in these areas remains to be seen.
Another common explanation for falling per capita income in the cities on this list is rapid population growth — particularly among Florida metro areas. Five metro areas on this list are located in the Sunshine State, and each of them reported population growth more than double the 0.5% national population growth from 2015 to 2016 — and in some cases eight times the national growth rate.
Even though most of these cities reported positive overall income growth, population growth was enough in these places to outpace climbing total personal income. Indeed, older, likely retired populations accounted for much of that growth. In four of the five Florida metro areas on this list, the 65 and older population grew faster than the 4.7% growth rate in 2016 for the cohort nationwide.
In places like these, the falling income per capita does not necessarily mean residents are worse off financially than in years past. To be sure, the poverty rate declined in four of the five Florida metro areas on this list in 2016.
Methodology
To identify the cities where incomes are shrinking the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the largest real personal income per capita declines in 2016 among the nation’s 382 metropolitan statistical areas with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal income also came from the BEA. The BEA’s income figures for each year starting in 2008 were reviewed as well, all adjusted for inflation, chained to 2009 dollars. The share of each MSA’s workforce employed in each industry in 2015, 2016, and 2017 as well as average wages by industry for each MSA, came from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates also came from the BLS. Population growth, median household income, poverty rates, the percentage of households earning at least $200,000 and less than $10,000, and SNAP recipiency came from the American Community Survey.
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