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BING PREDICTS: Who Will Win the Oscars
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The Academy Awards have fallen on hard times. Last year’s show attracted only 26.5 million viewers — an all-time low — and the Academy’s inability to find a replacement host following the removal of comedian Kevin Hart suggests that Hollywood’s top talent may not regard the awards show as the prestigious event it once was.
Despite its waning importance, the Academy Awards are still the most watched entertainment awards ceremony in the country. And this year’s nominations reflect a wide range of movies — from the Mexican drama “Roma” to the superhero blockbuster “Black Panther” — that are sure to deliver an exciting evening for those interested in the awards.
In anticipation of the 91st Annual Academy Awards, scheduled to air Feb. 24 on ABC, Bing Predicts has calculated the projected winners in 24 of the awards’ major categories.
Click here to see who will win the Oscars.
“Roma,” directed by Alfonso Cuarón, is projected to be one of the night’s biggest winners. In addition to Best Picture, the film is expected to win the awards for Best Foreign Language Film, Best Cinematography, and Best Director for Cuarón. “Roma” is the first Mexican film to ever be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture.
The Golden Globes, which took place this past January, are often a fairly good predictor of the Oscars. At the Golden Globes, Glenn Close won Best Actress for her performance in “The Wife,” and Rami Malek won Best Actor for his work in “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Bing Predicts also favors these actors as winners in these categories at the Oscars.
1. Best Picture
> Predicted winner: Roma (23% odds)
> Also likely: Green Book (18% odds)
> Other nominee: A Star Is Born (14% odds)
> Other nominee: BlacKkKlansman (13% odds)
> Other nominee: Black Panther (11% odds)
> Other nominee: Bohemian Rhapsody (10% odds)
> Other nominee: The Favourite (8% odds)
> Other nominee: Vice (3% odds)
“Roma” is the favorite to win the 2019 Oscar for Best Picture. The film about a working-class family in Mexico directed by Alfonso Cuarón won the Golden Globe for Best Picture earlier this year. “Roma” has been nominated for 10 Academy Awards. There has been a growing buzz for contender “Green Book,” which has odds of 18% to win the award.
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2. Best Actor
> Predicted winner: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (42% odds)
> Also likely: Christian Bale – Vice (21% odds)
> In the running: Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (16% odds)
> Dark horse: Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (14% odds)
> Long shot: Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate (7% odds)
Rami Malek’s portrayal of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury has already won him both a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild award. The vast majority of actors to win the SAG award — which celebrated its 25th anniversary this year — have also won the Oscar.
3. Best Actress
> Predicted winner: Glenn Close – The Wife (34% odds)
> Also likely: Olivia Colman – The Favourite (32% odds)
> In the running: Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (25% odds)
> Dark horse: Yalitza Aparicio – Roma (6% odds)
> Long shot: Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3% odds)
Glenn Close has been nominated for an Academy Award seven times, beginning in 1983 for Best Supporting Actress in the film “The World According to Garp,” and the oddsmakers like her chances for winning the statue this year. A close second is Olivia Colman, who starred in the period film “The Favourite.”
4. Best Supporting Actor
> Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali – Green Book (56% odds)
> Also likely: Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (17% odds)
> In the running: Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (14% odds)
> Dark horse: Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (10% odds)
> Long shot: Sam Rockwell – Vice (3% odds)
Mahershala Ali is heavily favored to take home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, an award he previously won for his role in “Moonlight.” Ali already won the award for Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role at this year’s Golden Globes for his work in “Green Book.”
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5. Best Supporting Actress
> Predicted winner: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (54% odds)
> Also likely: Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (21% odds)
> In the running: Emma Stone – The Favourite (14% odds)
> Dark horse: Marina de Tavira – Roma (7% odds)
> Long shot: Amy Adams – Vice (4% odds)
Regina King is the prohibitive favorite to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress, her first Academy Award nomination. King won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress for “If Beale Street Could Talk” earlier this year. Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone are each nominated in this category for the film “The Favourite.”
6. Best Director
> Predicted winner: Alfonso Cuarón – Roma (79% odds)
> Also likely: Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite (10% odds)
> In the running: Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War (5% odds)
> Dark horse: Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (4% odds)
> Long shot: Adam McKay – Vice (2% odds)
Director Alfonso Cuarón, whose previous films include “Gravity” and “Children of Men,” has 79% chance of winning this year’s award for Best Director, according to Bing. Cuarón has already won the Directors Guild of America award in this category, a feat accomplished by 22 of the previous 26 winners of the Best Director Oscar.
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7. Best Adapted Screenplay
> Predicted winner: BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, et al. (36% odds)
> Also likely: If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins (22% odds)
> In the running: Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty (17% odds)
> Dark horse: A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, et al. (15% odds)
> Long shot: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (10% odds)
The Spike Lee-directed “BlacKkKlansman,” a satire based on the true story of an African American police detective who infiltrated the Ku Klux Klan, is the favorite to pick up the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. Lee co-wrote the film, along with Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott, and David Rabinowitz.
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8. Best Original Screenplay
> Predicted winner: The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (35% odds)
> Also likely: Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, et al. (30% odds)
> In the running: Roma – Alfonso Cuarón (23% odds)
> Dark horse: First Reformed – Paul Schrader (9% odds)
> Long shot: Vice – Adam McKay (3% odds)
Period drama “The Favourite” is also the favorite to win Best Original Screenplay, although odds for “Green Book” are not far behind. “The Favourite” is the only feature film credited to writer Deborah Davis, and the second credited to her co-writer Tony McNamara.
9. Best Animated Feature
> Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (46% odds)
> Also likely: Incredibles 2 (21% odds)
> In the running: Isle of Dogs (15% odds)
> Dark horse: Ralph Breaks the Internet (12% odds)
> Long shot: Mirai (6% odds)
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” was released by Sony Pictures Animation. The film has already won a Golden Globe and British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) award this year to establish itself as the favorite for Best Animated Feature Oscar. Sony is looking to break the grip Disney has held on this category. Disney has won Best Animated Feature for six straight years and in 10 of the last 11. Speaking of Disney, “Incredibles 2” is its hope to win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature this year.
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10. Best Documentary Feature
> Predicted winner: RBG (38% odds)
> Also likely: Free Solo (33% odds)
> In the running: Minding the Gap (21% odds)
> Dark horse: Of Fathers and Sons (5% odds)
> Long shot: Hale County This Morning, This Evening (3% odds)
“RBG,” an exploration of the life and legacy of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, has won multiple awards already, including Best Political Documentary and Most Compelling Living Subject of a Documentary at the 2018 Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards.
11. Best Foreign Language Film
> Predicted winner: Roma – Mexico (83% odds)
> Also likely: Shoplifters – Japan (7% odds)
> In the running: Cold War – Poland (5% odds)
> Dark horse: Capernaum – Lebanon (3% odds)
> Long shot: Never Look Away – Germany (2% odds)
“Roma” is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Foreign Language film. Alfonso Cuarón‘s movie based on his childhood in Mexico has already won the Best Foreign Language Golden Globe and a BAFTA for a film not in the English language. “Roma” is the ninth Mexican film ever to be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film. The previous eight did not win.
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12. Best Cinematography
> Predicted winner: Roma – Alfonso Cuarón (51% odds)
> Also likely: A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique (23% odds)
> In the running: The Favourite – Robbie Ryan (11% odds)
> Dark horse: Cold War – Lukasz Zal (10% odds)
> Long shot: Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel (5% odds)
Alfonso Cuarón, the director of “Roma,” is the odds-on favorite, to take home the golden statue for Best Cinematography, one of 10 Academy Awards for which the film was nominated. Cuarón won the Golden Globe for Best Cinematography earlier this year.
13. Best Costume Design
> Predicted winner: The Favourite – Sandy Powell (42% odds)
> Also likely: Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter (39% odds)
> In the running: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres (8% odds)
> Dark horse: Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell (6% odds)
> Long shot: Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne (5% odds)
This year’s contest for Best Costume Design is a toss up between the period-specific wardrobe of “The Favourite” and the fantastic designs in “Black Panther.” Slight favorite Sandy Powell has previously won Oscars for her costume design in “Shakespeare in Love,” “Young Victoria,” and “The Aviator.” She also is nominated for “Mary Poppins Returns.”
14. Best Film Editing
> Predicted winner: Vice – Hank Corwin (26% odds)
> Also likely: BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown (25% odds)
> In the running: Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman (24% odds)
> Dark horse: The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (16% odds)
> Long shot: Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito (9% odds)
Hank Corwin is the favorite for the movie “Vice,” about the life of former Vice President Dick Cheney. Corwin won the BAFTA in this category earlier this year. This is his second Academy Award nomination. He was nominated for Best Achievement in Film Editing for the “The Big Short” in 2015. Other contenders are Barry Alexander Brown for “BlacKkKlansman” and John Ottman for “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
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15. Best Makeup & Hairstyling
> Predicted winner: Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, et al. (51% odds)
> Also likely: Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, et al. (25% odds)
> In the running: Border – Göran Lundström, et al. (24% odds)
The Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling is a contest between only three films this year. The likely winner is the biographical film “Vice,” which stars a prosthetic-laden Christian Bale as former Vice President Dick Cheney.
16. Best Original Score
> Predicted winner: If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell (26% odds)
> Also likely: Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson (24% odds)
> In the running: BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard (21% odds)
> Dark horse: Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat (15% odds)
> Long shot: Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman (14% odds)
In another competitive category, Nicholas Britell is the favorite to win the Best Original Score award for “If Beale Street Could Talk.” Britell was nominated in this category in 2016 for the film “Moonlight.” Other contenders with odds of better than 20% are Ludwig Goransson for “Black Panther” and Terence Blanchard for “BlacKkKlansman.”
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17. Best Original Song
> Predicted winner: Shallow – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, et al. – A Star Is Born (73% odds)
> Also likely: All The Stars – Kendrick Lamar, SZA – Black Panther (10% odds)
> In the running: The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns (6% odds)
> In the running: When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (6% odds)
> Long shot: I’ll Fight – Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson – RBG (5% odds)
“Shallow,” written by Lady Gaga and collaborators, is heavily favored to win Best Original Song. The song has already won the Golden Globe for Best Original Song and two Grammys for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance and Best Song Written for Visual Media.
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18. Best Production Design
> Predicted winner: The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (36% odds)
> Also likely: Black Panther – Hannah Beachler (23% odds)
> In the running: First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (16% odds)
> Dark horse: Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim (13% odds)
> Long shot: Roma – Eugenio Caballero, et al. (12% odds)
“The Favourite,” a period piece set during the reign of Queen Anne in early 18th-century England, has been nominated for 10 Academy Awards, including Best Production Design. It is the first Oscar nomination for Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton.
19. Best Sound Editing
> Predicted winner: First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, et al. (30% odds)
> Also likely: A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, et al. (22% odds)
> In the running: Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, et al. (20% odds)
> Dark horse: Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay (15% odds)
> Long shot: Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst (13% odds)
The race for the Best Sound Editing award this year’s is the closest of all awards. Slight favorite “First Man” boasts the work of supervising sound editors Mildred Iatrou and Ai-Ling Lee, who were nominated in 2017 for their work on “La La Land.”
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20. Best Sound Mixing
> Predicted winner: First Man – Jon Taylor, et al. (32% odds)
> Also likely: Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, et al. (20% odds)
> In the running: A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, et al. (18% odds)
> Dark horse: Roma – Skip Lievsay, et al. (16% odds)
> Long shot: Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, et al. (14% odds)
The sound team for “First Man,” a biopic about the first moon walker Neil Armstrong, worked with NASA and other space agencies to make the film as authentic as possible. They also consulted with moon-walking astronaut Jim Lovell to get a better idea of the sounds astronauts experience.
21. Best Visual Effects
> Predicted winner: Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, et al. (29% odds)
> Also likely: Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, et al. (26% odds)
> In the running: First Man – Paul Lambert, et al. (21% odds)
> Dark horse: Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, et al. (13% odds)
> Long shot: Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, et al. (11% odds)
The past year has featured many visually stunning movies, but few match the CG-driven action of “Avengers: Infinity War,” according to Bing. The Steven Spielberg-directed “Ready Player One” also has a high chance of taking home the Best Visual Effects Oscar.
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22. Best Documentary Short
> Predicted winner: Black Sheep – Ed Perkins (27% odds)
> Also likely: A Night at the Garden – Marshall Curry (25% odds)
> In the running: End Game – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman (23% odds)
> Dark horse: Lifeboat – Skye Fitzgerald (13% odds)
> Long shot: Period. End of Sentence. – Rayka Zehtabchi (12% odds)
The 27-minute film “Black Sheep” is about the extremes a Nigerian boy goes to when he deals with racism at a housing project in the county of Essex in England after his mother moves the family there following the killing of a young boy in London. Best Documentary Short is a competitive category with three films showing odds of better than 20% of winning the Oscar.
23. Best Animated Short
> Predicted winner: Bao – Domee Shi (57% odds)
> Also likely: Late Afternoon – Louise Bagnall (14% odds)
> Also likely: One Small Step – Andrew Chesworth, et al. (14% odds)
> Dark horse: Animal Behaviour – Alison Snowden, David Fine (8% odds)
> Long shot: Weekends – Trevor Jimenez (7% odds)
The Pixar-produced short “Bao” is heavily favored to take home the award for Best Animated Short this year. The 8-minute film, in which a Chinese-Canadian woman imagines her dumpling coming to life, incorporates Pixar’s popular combination of humor and heartbreak.
24. Best Live Action Short
> Predicted winner: Marguerite – Marianne Farley (31% odds)
> Also likely: Fauve – Jeremy Comte (22% odds)
> In the running: Detainment – Vincent Lambe (17% odds)
> Dark horse: Mother – Rodrigo Sorogoyen (16% odds)
> Long shot: Skin – Guy Nattiv (14% odds)
“Marguerite,” a Canadian film directed and written by Marianne Farley, is a story about an older woman who confronts her repressed romantic feelings for another woman after discovering that her nurse is a lesbian. This is Farley’s first Oscar nomination. “Marguerite,” has won many awards since it was released.
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