As the 2021 NFL season gets underway, fanbases across the country will sit down to watch their teams in the hopes that they can make a deep playoff run and win the Super Bowl.
While every fanbase can hope for the best, the reality is that only a handful of teams actually have the talent, coaching, and experience to stand a chance at winning it all. Even the best teams face an uphill climb to reach the Super Bowl and some franchises that are in the midst of rebuilding their rosters have astronomically low odds of even reaching the playoffs.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL predictions for how the season will play out, based on 50,000 simulated games, as of September 23, 2021. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
With 32 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy, even the most talented teams face a difficult challenge in their quest to win the title. No franchise has a more than 16% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season, according to FiveThirtyEight. Any team can have their season be derailed by injuries, or make crucial mistakes in a playoff game. Some teams, however, seem to have virtually no chance to make it to the Super Bowl.
Many downtrodden franchises just don’t have the talent to compete with perennial playoff teams, and have a less than 1% chance to win it all. Some of these teams are breaking in highly touted rookies or second-year quarterbacks that they hope can turn around the franchise sooner rather than later. These are the youngest athletes to dominate their sport.
Click here to see how each team will finish this NFL season
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
30. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
29. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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28. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 8%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
27. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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26. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
25. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 25%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 8-8
24. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 20%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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23. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 11-5
22. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 33%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
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21. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 31%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 33%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
19. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 43%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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18. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 68%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
17. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 47%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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16. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
15. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 5-11
14. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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13. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 59%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
12. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 59%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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11. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 52%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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10. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 54%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 8-8
9. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 56%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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8. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 61%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 8-8
7. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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6. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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5. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 76%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10
4. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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3. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 81%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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