With the 2021 NFL season in full swing, fans are starting to get a clearer picture of which teams are the most likely to win the Super Bowl. Though it is early in the season, some teams are already establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with.
The Los Angeles Rams beat the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-24 in what could be an NFC Championship game preview. The Green Bay Packers picked up a big road win against the San Francisco 49ers, and the Los Angeles Chargers finally took down the Kansas City Chiefs. These big wins can help separate the contenders from the pretenders in the 2021 NFL season, and boost the team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL predictions for how the season will play out, based on 50,000 simulated games, as of September 23, 2021. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
With 32 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy, even the most talented teams face a difficult challenge in their quest to win the title. No franchise has a more than 14% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The most crucial factor in determining who could win the Super Bowl is the quarterback — undoubtedly the most important position in football, teams with proven signal callers like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes have an edge that other teams simply cannot match. This is the best quarterback in each team’s history.
Click here to see how each NFL team will finish this season.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
30. New York Jets
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
29. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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28. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
27. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 12%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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26. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4
25. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
24. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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23. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 23%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 4-11
22. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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21. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 10-6
20. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 28%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
19. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 41%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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16. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 54%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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15. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 11-5
14. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 71%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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13. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 8-8
12. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 60%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 12-4
10. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 66%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 13-3
9. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 67%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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8. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 69%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 5-11
7. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 61%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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6. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
5. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
4. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 61%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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3. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 13-3
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 83%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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1. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 86%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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