Week 5 of the NFL season was an eventful one — the Buffalo Bills emerged as one of the top teams in the league after going to Kansas City and demolishing the Chiefs 38-20. The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers picked up statement wins over good teams to both move to 4-1, beating the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, respectively.
Elsewhere, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams looked dominant, while the Arizona Cardinals remained the only unbeaten team, moving to 5-0. These teams have shown they can win big games against top-notch opponents, establishing themselves as serious threats to make a deep playoff run.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 12, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
While some teams have excelled, others have fallen back to the pack, or simply fallen apart. Injury, illness, and dysfunction have made it unlikely for some promising teams to make the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs slipped to 2-3 and lost running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire for weeks due to a knee injury. Other players like Russell Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and more appear poised to miss significant time.
Perhaps the biggest NFL story of the week was Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden stepping down. Gruden resigned after the New York Times reported on a slew of offensive emails he sent in recent years that were seen by the league. The Raiders had started 3-0 but lost their last two games, significantly curbing their chances of making the playoffs.
Click here to see how each NFL team will finish this season
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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31. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
27. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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26. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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25. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 4-11
24. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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23. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4
22. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 32%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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21. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 26%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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20. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 8-8
19. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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18. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 11-5
17. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 35%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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16. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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15. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 42%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 5-11
14. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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13. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 31%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
12. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 58%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
10. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 64%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 14-2
9. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 68%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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8. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 13-3
7. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 85%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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6. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 93%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 8-8
5. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 88%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 10-6
4. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 90%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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3. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 11-5
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 93%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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1. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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