Special Report
After Week 6, What Chance Does Your Team Have to Win the Super Bowl?
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Week six of the 2021 NFL season provided fans with some tantalizing matchups, giving some of the league’s top teams huge tests early in the season. The Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens both entered their game at 4-1, but it was Baltimore that walked away with the win, as they rolled over the Chargers 34-6.
The Buffalo Bills looked like the NFL’s team to beat after week five, but they came up short against the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football, losing 34-31. The Arizona Cardinals remain the league’s lone undefeated team, cruising by the Cleveland Browns 37-14 — but they still aren’t the team most likely to win the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 19, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Though there is still a long way to go in the NFL season, football fans are getting a clearer picture of which teams are truly Super Bowl contenders. Of the 32 teams, most have a 1% or smaller chance of winning it all, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Teams like the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos that started well have now fallen back to the pack, while teams like the Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys that struggled in 2020 have proven they are postseason threats with big wins over quality opponents, thanks to big games from their young quarterbacks. This is the best quarterback in each team’s history.
Click here to see how each NFL team will finish this season
32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
27. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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26. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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25. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
24. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 15.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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23. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 5-11
22. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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21. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 23.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4
19. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 23.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 37.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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16. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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15. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 48.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
14. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 54.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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13. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
12. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 85.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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10. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 60.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 12-4
9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 84.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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8. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 72.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 14-2
7. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 90.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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6. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 93.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10
5. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 94.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 10-6
4. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 14-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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3. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 13-3
2. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97.0%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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