Special Report
After Week 7, Every NFL Team's Chance to Win the Super Bowl
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In Week 7 of the NFL season, many of the league’s top teams flex their muscles against struggling opponents. The Arizona Cardinals remained undefeated, coasting to a 31-5 victory over the Houston Texans. The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers smothered the Chicago Bears 38-3, and the Green Bay Packers pulled away from the Washington Football Team late to earn a 24-10 win.
Some of the blowouts from Week 7 were surprises as well. The Tennessee Titans held the normally-potent Kansas City Chiefs offense to just a field goal, winning 27-3. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals now sit atop the AFC North after running rampant against the Baltimore Ravens, winning 41-17. These top teams showed just how dangerous they can be once the playoffs arrive.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Oct. 26, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
With the NFL season almost halfway gone, many teams with Super Bowl aspirations are running out of time to right the ship. The Chiefs and 49ers played each other in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. Now both are below .500 and run the risk of falling out of contention early. FiveThirtyEight’s predictions show both teams have a less than 50% chance of even making the playoffs.
On the flip side, several long-suffering fan bases are starting to have some reasons for optimism. If the season ended today, the Cardinals and Bengals would be the only teams to get a first round bye, putting them in prime position to win their first Super Bowl in franchise history. These are the teams that have lost all their Super Bowls.
Click here to see how each NFL team will finish this season
32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. New York Jets
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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28. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
27. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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26. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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25. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
24. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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23. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
22. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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21. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 16%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 6-10
20. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 15%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
19. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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18. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 26%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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16. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 45%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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15. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
14. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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13. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 8-8
12. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 44%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 75%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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10. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 77%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 4-11
9. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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8. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 80%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
7. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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6. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 94%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 13-3
5. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 94%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10
4. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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3. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 14-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 8-8
2. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 96%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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