Special Report
Before Week 9, This Is Every NFL Team’s Chance To Win the Super Bowl
Published:
In week 8 of the 2021 NFL season, several top teams lost in surprising fashion, while a few others lost key players. The Arizona Cardinals were the last undefeated team in the NFL before losing in a wild contest on Thursday Night to the Green Bay Packers. The Cincinnati Bengals were on top of the AFC but lost a 34-31 shocker to the New York Jets and their backup QB Mike White.
Elsewhere, the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts in overtime to move to 6-2 on the year. In the process, they lost star running back Derrick Henry to a foot injury, perhaps for the rest of the season. The New Orleans Saints also suffered a big loss in a big win — QB Jameis Winston tore the ACL in his left knee early in the game, but backup Trevor Siemian guided the Saints to a big win over the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With all these surprising losses and injuries to key players, each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl are in flux.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 3, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Though the NFL is less than half of the way through its 18-week season, the true contenders have started to separate themselves from the rest of the pack — most of the 32 teams have a 1% or less chance of winning the Super Bowl, per FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, while just five teams have a 10% or greater chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy.
While some teams are fighting for a playoff spot, others are just floundering. The Detroit Lions are 0-8 after getting blown out by a lackluster Philadelphia Eagles team 44-6. It seems as if Detroit is in for another long stretch of losing as they try to rebuild their roster. These are the NFL teams with the all-time worst losing streaks.
Click here to see every NFL team’s chance to win the Super Bowl.
32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
30. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
27. New York Giants
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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26. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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25. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
24. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 8%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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23. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
22. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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21. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
20. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
19. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 34%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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16. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 33%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
14. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 46%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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13. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 76%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
12. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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11. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 48%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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10. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 8-8
9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 67%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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8. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 11-5
7. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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6. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 8-8
5. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 13-3
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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3. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 6-10
2. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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1. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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