Special Report
After Week 9, This Is Every NFL Team’s Chance To Win the Super Bowl
Published:
The end of the NFL’s Week 9 means the season is halfway over, and teams are starting to jockey for playoff spots in earnest. Teams are running out of time to rack up wins and put themselves in position to make the playoffs.
Several top teams are starting to pull away from the rest of their division, while others are muddling through injuries and tough competition in their division for a shot at the Super Bowl. After nine weeks, there are six teams with a 95% or better chance of making the playoffs, and just four with a 10% or better chance of winning the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 9, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Week 9 was all about backup quarterbacks and surprising upsets. The Arizona Cardinals regained the NFL’s best record at 8-1 when backup QB Colt McCoy ably stepped in for the injured Kyler Murray to beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-17. On the other hand, Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love struggled in his first start, replacing Aaron Rodgers who was out with COVID-19. Green Bay could only muster a late touchdown and lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 13-7.
A few Super Bowl contenders were taken down a peg by some surprising opponents. The Buffalo Bills fell to 5-3 after losing a messy 9-6 game to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who picked up just their second win of the season. The Dallas Cowboys fell to 6-2 after being dominated at home by the Denver Broncos 30-16.
The marquee matchup of the week saw the Tennessee Titans win in Los Angeles over the Rams 28-16. Both teams are now 7-2. The Rams will hope the newly-acquired Von Miller can help bolster their defense and get after the opposing quarterback, adding to his already impressive sack total. These are the NFL’s all-time sack leaders.
Click here to see each NFL team’s chance of winning the Super Bowl.
32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 2-15
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 3-14
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
30. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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28. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
27. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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26. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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25. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
24. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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23. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
22. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 25%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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21. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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20. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
19. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 32%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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18. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 30%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 12-4
17. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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16. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 43%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
15. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 37%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
14. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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13. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
12. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 53%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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11. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
10. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 56%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 14-2
9. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 77%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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8. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 6-10
7. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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6. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 84%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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5. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 13-3
4. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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3. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 11-5
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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1. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 14-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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