Special Report
After Week 10, This Is Every NFL Team’s Chance To Win the Super Bowl
Published:
After 10 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, fans are starting to get a clearer picture of which teams are likely to make the playoffs. Many top teams faltered during week 10, giving their fans cause for concern, while other playoff contenders looked the part in convincing wins.
The Tennessee Titans have staked their claim as the top team in the NFL. After beating the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, they now hold the NFL’s longest active win streak at six games — five of which came against teams that made the 2020 playoffs. The Green Bay Packers cruised to a 17-0 win against the Seattle Seahawks, putting them in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s top playoff seed. With just one bye available per conference, Tennessee and Green Bay are well positioned for a Super Bowl run.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 16, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Earlier in the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals appeared to be the class of the NFC. But both suffered surprising losses on Sunday — the Bucs lost 29-19 to the Washington Football Team and the Cardinals floundered without starting QB Kyler Murray, losing to the Carolina Panthers 34-10.
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots both scored 45 points and won handily over the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns, respectively. Both teams have six wins, setting up a late-season showdown for the AFC East.
The AFC North is muddled as well, as all four teams in the division have either five or six wins. Its teams struggled in week 10, as the Baltimore Ravens lost to the lowly Miami Dolphins. The Cincinnati Bengals were on a bye week, and the aforementioned Browns received a drubbing. Perhaps most surprisingly, the Pittsburgh Steelers tied against the still-winless Detroit Lions. These are the NFL teams with the all-time worst losing streaks.
Click here to see every NFL team’s chance to win the Super Bowl
32. Detroit Lions
> Current record: 0-8-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. Houston Texans
> Current record: 1-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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30. New York Jets
> Current record: 2-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Current record: 2-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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28. Chicago Bears
> Current record: 3-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
27. Atlanta Falcons
> Current record: 4-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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26. Miami Dolphins
> Current record: 3-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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25. New York Giants
> Current record: 3-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
24. Denver Broncos
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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23. Washington Football Team
> Current record: 3-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 12%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
22. Las Vegas Raiders
> Current record: 5-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 28%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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21. Seattle Seahawks
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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20. Philadelphia Eagles
> Current record: 4-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 26%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 4-11
19. Cincinnati Bengals
> Current record: 5-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 38%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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18. San Francisco 49ers
> Current record: 4-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 35%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 6-10
17. Cleveland Browns
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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16. Minnesota Vikings
> Current record: 4-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 41%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
15. Carolina Panthers
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 35%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Current record: 5-3-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 39%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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13. New Orleans Saints
> Current record: 5-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 47%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
12. Indianapolis Colts
> Current record: 5-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 46%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. Los Angeles Chargers
> Current record: 5-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 63%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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10. Baltimore Ravens
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
9. Los Angeles Rams
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 86%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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8. New England Patriots
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 7-9
7. Kansas City Chiefs
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
5. Arizona Cardinals
> Current record: 8-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 8-8
4. Dallas Cowboys
> Current record: 7-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 96%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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3. Buffalo Bills
> Current record: 7-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 92%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 13-3
2. Green Bay Packers
> Current record: 8-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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1. Tennessee Titans
> Current record: 8-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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