Special Report
After Week 12, What Is Your Team’s Chance to Win the Super Bowl?
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Week 12 of the NFL season pitted several playoff contenders against each other, and the results could have a huge impact on the final playoff picture. A large number of teams are hovering around .500, just within striking distance of the playoffs, setting up a mad scramble toward the end of the regular season.
While many teams are struggling to stay relevant, others are proving why they are serious Super Bowl contenders. Only four teams have at least a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Nov. 30, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
The NFL’s marquee matchup for Week 12 saw the Green Bay Packers defeat the Los Angeles Rams 36-28. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. as the Packers looked like the best team in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, have struggled to integrate new additions Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. into their team and lost their third game in a row, dropping to 7-4.
Elsewhere, the Baltimore Ravens now lead the AFC with a record of 8-3, after they beat the Cleveland Browns in an ugly 16-10 game. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions, but the defense bailed him out and shut down the Browns rushing attack.
The New England Patriots stifled the Tennessee Titans 36-13, giving both teams an 8-4 record. The Patriots are now just a half-game out of first place in the AFC. It appears the team has returned to dominance after posting its first losing season in two decades in 2020. These are the NFL teams with the most consecutive winning seasons.
Click here to see your team’s chance to win the Super Bowl
32. Detroit Lions
> Current record: 0-10-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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31. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Current record: 2-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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30. Houston Texans
> Current record: 2-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. New York Jets
> Current record: 3-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. Seattle Seahawks
> Current record: 3-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
27. Chicago Bears
> Current record: 4-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 2%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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26. Atlanta Falcons
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 8%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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25. New York Giants
> Current record: 4-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
24. Carolina Panthers
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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23. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Current record: 5-5-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 10%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
22. Philadelphia Eagles
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
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21. Las Vegas Raiders
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 8-8
20. Miami Dolphins
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 10-6
19. New Orleans Saints
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 24%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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18. Cleveland Browns
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
17. Denver Broncos
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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16. Minnesota Vikings
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 7-9
15. Washington Football Team
> Current record: 5-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 44%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 7-9
14. San Francisco 49ers
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 73%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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13. Los Angeles Chargers
> Current record: 6-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
12. Indianapolis Colts
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 53%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. Los Angeles Rams
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 83%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 10-6
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10. Cincinnati Bengals
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 65%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
9. Dallas Cowboys
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 85%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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8. Tennessee Titans
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
7. Buffalo Bills
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 86%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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6. Baltimore Ravens
> Current record: 8-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
5. Kansas City Chiefs
> Current record: 7-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 84%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 14-2
4. New England Patriots
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Current record: 8-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 11-5
2. Arizona Cardinals
> Current record: 9-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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1. Green Bay Packers
> Current record: 9-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 17%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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