Special Report
After Week 13, What Is Your Team’s Chance to Win the Super Bowl?
Published:
During Week 13, the NFL’s top-tier teams showed why they are Super Bowl contenders. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and Kansas City Chiefs all cruised to double digit wins over inferior opponents, strengthening their chances of winning their divisions or even getting a first round bye.
Playoff seeding can be crucial for playoff success, setting up teams with the best records for home field advantage. Winning games down the stretch in December can make the difference when the playoffs roll around, with winning teams increasing their odds of winning the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Dec. 7, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
While many division leaders cruised to easy wins in Week 13, a number of Wild Card hopefuls played each other in games with huge postseason ramifications. The LA Chargers’ offense lit up the Cincinnati Bengals defense in a 41-22 win, putting both teams at 7-5. The Washington Football Team hit a last-minute field goal to beat the Las Vegas Raiders. Now both teams have a 6-6 record. The Pittsburgh Steelers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-19 win over the Baltimore Ravens, boosting their record to 6-5-1, while the Ravens dropped to 8-4.
It was an eventful week for some of the struggling NFL teams as well. The Detroit Lions finally won their first game of the season on a last-second touchdown pass, beating the Minnesota Vikings 29-27. For the first time in over a month, they do not rank as the NFL’s worst team.
The 2-10 Houston Texans became the first team to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after being steamrolled 31-0 by the Indianapolis Colts. These are the NFL teams with the all-time worst losing streaks.
Click here to see your team’s chance to win the Super Bowl.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Current record: 2-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
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31. Detroit Lions
> Current record: 1-10-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
30. Houston Texans
> Current record: 2-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: Eliminated%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: Eliminated%
> 2020 record: 4-12
29. New York Jets
> Current record: 3-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: <0.1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. Chicago Bears
> Current record: 4-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
27. Atlanta Falcons
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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26. New York Giants
> Current record: 4-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
25. Seattle Seahawks
> Current record: 4-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 4%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
24. Carolina Panthers
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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23. New Orleans Saints
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 14%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
22. Las Vegas Raiders
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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21. Denver Broncos
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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20. Minnesota Vikings
> Current record: 5-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 7-9
19. Philadelphia Eagles
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 37%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 4-11
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18. Miami Dolphins
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 11%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 10-6
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Current record: 6-5-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 18%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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16. Cleveland Browns
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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15. Washington Football Team
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 51%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
> 2020 record: 7-9
14. San Francisco 49ers
> Current record: 6-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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13. Cincinnati Bengals
> Current record: 7-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 44%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
12. Indianapolis Colts
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 62%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. Los Angeles Rams
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 90%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 10-6
10. Dallas Cowboys
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
9. Buffalo Bills
> Current record: 7-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 73%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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8. Tennessee Titans
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 11-5
7. Los Angeles Chargers
> Current record: 7-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 78%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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6. Baltimore Ravens
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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5. Kansas City Chiefs
> Current record: 8-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 14-2
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Current record: 9-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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3. New England Patriots
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 14%
> 2020 record: 7-9
2. Green Bay Packers
> Current record: 9-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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1. Arizona Cardinals
> Current record: 10-2
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 16%
> 2020 record: 8-8
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