Special Report
After Week 14, What Is Your Team’s Chance to Win the Super Bowl?
Published:
Week 14 was a wild one in the NFL, as teams continued to fight to rack up enough wins to make it to the playoffs. So far, four teams have a greater than 99% chance to make the postseason, while four other teams have already been eliminated from contention. This leaves more than 20 teams scrapping for just a handful of playoff spots and an opportunity to compete for the Super Bowl.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviews each week FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Dec. 14, 2021, and teams are ranked by their projected chance of winning the Super Bowl. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
Several of the week’s biggest games went right down to the last play, starting with the Thursday Steelers-Vikings game, in which Minnesota broke up a last-second pass in the endzone to secure a 36-28 win. The Cleveland Browns stymied a last-minute comeback attempt by the Baltimore Ravens to win 24-22 and push their record above .500. This game could have far-reaching consequences for the Ravens, as superstar QB Lamar Jackson left the game early with an ankle injury.
The Buffalo Bills nearly staged a huge comeback against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, scoring 17 fourth quarter points to force overtime, but Tom Brady came up clutch again, throwing a game-winning 58-yard touchdown to Breshad Perriman in overtime. In the week’s only other overtime game, the San Francisco 49ers knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals with a Brandon Aiyuk game-winning touchdown catch from Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans took care of business with big wins over struggling divisional opponents. The New Orleans Saints kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the downtrodden New York Jets as did the Seattle Seahawks by beating the Houston Texans. A week after finally picking up their first win of the season, the Detroit Lions lost again, this time to the Denver Broncos, 38-10. These are the NFL teams with the all-time worst losing streak.
Click here to see your team’s chance to win the Super Bowl.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Current record: 2-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: Eliminated
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: Eliminated
> 2020 record: 1-15
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31. Houston Texans
> Current record: 2-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: Eliminated
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: Eliminated
> 2020 record: 4-12
30. Detroit Lions
> Current record: 1-11-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: Eliminated
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: Eliminated
> 2020 record: 5-11
29. New York Jets
> Current record: 3-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: Eliminated
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: Eliminated
> 2020 record: 2-14
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28. Chicago Bears
> Current record: 4-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
27. Carolina Panthers
> Current record: 5-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 0.3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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26. New York Giants
> Current record: 4-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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25. Las Vegas Raiders
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 8-8
24. Atlanta Falcons
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 12%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
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23. Seattle Seahawks
> Current record: 5-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Current record: 6-6-1
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 10%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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21. New Orleans Saints
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 19%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
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20. Washington Football Team
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 7-9
19. Minnesota Vikings
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 7-9
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18. Miami Dolphins
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 10%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 10-6
17. Denver Broncos
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 21%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 5-11
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16. Philadelphia Eagles
> Current record: 6-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 37%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
15. Cincinnati Bengals
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 29%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.5%
> 2020 record: 4-11-1
14. Cleveland Browns
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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13. San Francisco 49ers
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 75%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 6-10
12. Indianapolis Colts
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 67%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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11. Baltimore Ravens
> Current record: 8-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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10. Buffalo Bills
> Current record: 7-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 66%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> 2020 record: 13-3
9. Dallas Cowboys
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 6-10
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8. Los Angeles Rams
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 97%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> 2020 record: 10-6
7. Tennessee Titans
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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6. Los Angeles Chargers
> Current record: 8-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 86%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 6%
> 2020 record: 7-9
5. Arizona Cardinals
> Current record: 10-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 8-8
4. Kansas City Chiefs
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 95%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> 2020 record: 14-2
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3. New England Patriots
> Current record: 9-4
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 98%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> 2020 record: 7-9
2. Green Bay Packers
> Current record: 10-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 18%
> 2020 record: 13-3
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Current record: 10-3
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: >99%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 19%
> 2020 record: 11-5
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