The 20 Countries Responsible for Nearly All Global Emissions

Struggling with its economy and Covid-19, Poland is the only country in the European Union that has not signed onto a pledge to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Instead, it has set a shorter term goal of reducing emissions by 30% by 2030. Historically, Poland has relied on coal for energy, and with coal being a national resource, there is a reluctance to give up coal plants. Still, the country is moving on plans to invest in nuclear energy and wind power in pursuit of its climate goals.

Along with dozens of countries around the world, Vietnam has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, with a 2030 goal of reducing coal dependence by doubling its renewable energy generation. Speaking last November at the U.N.’s climate conference in Glasgow, Vietnamese prime minister Pham Minh Chinh called on more developed nations to provide financial and technological assistance and the expertise needed for his country to meet its goals.

In step with most of the rest of the European Union, France has signed onto a net zero emissions goal for 2050, and is increasing its efforts to shrink its carbon footprint. Like most of the world, however, it has failed miserably in meeting previous climate goals. France’s failure to meet its Paris accord commitments from 2015 inspired a lawsuit by four NGOs that resulted in a court order giving the French government until the end of 2022 to “repair the damage” for excess emissions between 2015 and 2018..

Italy has beaten EU averages by lowering emissions in all sectors since 2005, the largest in energy (42%) and manufacturing and construction (47%). Coal replacement, significant progress in energy efficiency, and expansion of clean transportation programs are supplemented by policies that have increased Italy’s forest cover, which has grown to over 31% of the country’s surface area, functioning as a carbon sink.

The UK has reduced its carbon emissions by an impressive 49% from 1990 levels, and, as was true elsewhere, this number was greatly enhanced by the pandemic, with emissions dropping by 11% in 2020 alone. Unfortunately, Covid-19’s gift to the climate is fast disappearing around the world as emissions bounce back to near pre-pandemic numbers.

Australia, a massive user and exporter of fossil fuels, has been heavily criticized for its approach to climate change. While joining many other countries in setting a 2050 net zero emissions goal, it is focusing on carbon capture and large investments in low emission technology rather than a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. Most agree this is not a winning strategy.

Facing a tidal wave of condemnation for its cavalier attitude toward climate change, Brazil arrived at November’s climate conference in Glasgow with a new sense of urgency. An apparently chastened President Bolsonaro committed to “acting responsibly” as he endorsed tough goals for reducing GHG emissions, and promised to slow the deforestation that has accelerated on his watch and outraged the world.

Mexico has sometimes been viewed as a climate leader among poorer nations, largely based on a history of rhetoric and lofty goals, yet that history has played out as one of backsliding and continued commitment to oil production. With 80% of Mexico’s population concerned about climate change in the face of stronger hurricanes and recurring drought and heat waves, some states and cities within Mexico are moving ahead with their own emission reduction plans without federal help.

Under pressure from investors and environmental groups, and in anticipation of the 2021 international climate summit, South Africa tightened its climate change goals. The lowered emission targets will require a shift away from coal, which currently powers the state-owned energy utility. South Africa’s leadership is seeking billions of dollars in aid to allow a transition to renewables.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter and is not about to divorce itself from its fossil fuel economy. Still, the country has pledged to a zero emission goal, which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has set for 2060. Saudi Arabia will attempt to reach its target by shifting to renewables for domestic consumption, planting billions of trees, and employing technology to reduce emissions and remove carbon from the air.

In 2020 South Korea announced its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, and introduced a “Green New Deal” with a plan to address the pandemic, reduce GHG, and create green jobs. With the Glasgow summit looming in 2021, the country sharpened its focus on climate with new targets and plans, which the government admits will be challenging. Addressing its fossil fuel dependence, Korea’s leadership has pledged to reduce the share of coal burning in its energy mix from 41.9% to 21.8% and to increase its renewables from 6.2% to 30.2% by 2030.

Canada has joined the nations pledging zero emissions by 2050 and has codified the goal into law, but it faces serious challenges with high per capita energy use and opposition to the drastic measures needed on the part of the energy utility sector. Though Prime Minister Trudeau ran on a climate platform in 2015, environmentalists are unhappy that there is still no plan or strategy in play sufficient to meet aggressive goals.

In the months leading up to the Glasgow climate conference, Indonesia introduced two major initiatives designed to put the country on a path to achieving a 29% reduction in emissions by 2030 — and up to 41% with international financial assistance. The first is a carbon tax to be charged against entities that emit above pollution caps set for various sectors. To allow for flexibility, the tax will be augmented with a cap and trade system that will place a value on carbon and allow for market trading.

Germany’s GHG emissions dropped by 8.7% in 2020 as the country struggled with lockdowns and a slowed economy. In this way, the pandemic gave Germany the distinction of overshooting by .8% its goal of reducing emissions by 40% between 1990 and 2020. This success is now being undermined by the 2021 economic rebound, projected to result in the highest annual emission rate since 1990.

Though it is facing some of the worst consequences of climate change, including threats to water supplies and agriculture, and, despite the fact that it depends on fossil fuels for 90% of its energy supply, Iran has shown little interest in participating in the international effort to reduce GHG emissions. To the extent it has set vague and minimal emission goals, Iran has indicated it will only make efforts to meet these goals with the lifting of international sanctions, and with financial assistance.

Japan has decreased its carbon emissions by 14% since 1913 and, in a 2021 revision, plans to increase the reduction to 46% by 2030, replacing its previous 26% goal. Even with new carbon capture technologies and increased efficiencies, Japan’s current dependence on fossil fuels – 56% of the mix – has to change drastically if the country is to meet its 2050 zero emissions target.

Apparently awakened by the rapid loss of Arctic permafrost, President Putin has dropped his climate denial rhetoric and announced that Russia will strive for net zero emissions by 2060. Critics are skeptical of Putin’s planned reliance on the carbon reduction function of the country’s forests and natural systems, particularly in the face of the immense Siberian forest fires of recent years. The Russian plan also includes a transition to a greater dependence on natural gas over oil and coal. The country’s massive gas pipe infrastructure is already leaking 14 millions tons of methane a year, methane being a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Citing the larger contributions of GHG emissions from the prosperous nations of the world, India has resisted setting emission goals, arguing instead for “emissions intensity” targets, measuring emissions per unit of economic growth. Given its heavy dependence on oil and coal, it has also spurned a 2050 target for zero emissions, setting its own goal for 2070. Much of India’s climate plan centers around reforestation.

Determined to demonstrate that the U.S. is back in the game following former President Trump’s climate skepticism and rejection of the Paris Accord, President Biden appeared at the Glasgow conference with a message of urgency, describing climate change as an “existential crisis,” and emphasizing the need to assist poorer nations in reducing emissions. Throughout 2021 Binden has announced a number of climate initiatives and goals, relying heavily on executive powers and the EPA in the face of opposition to his Build Back Better bill. The legislation includes $500 billion in climate investments needed to meet the country’s climate goals.

China’s emissions continue to grow along with its population and swelling economy. President Xi Jinping has declared a commitment to zero emissions by 2060, but has promised no reductions until 2030. With its contribution to worldwide carbon output at 28.22/% and growing, its actions – or inaction – will likely determine the world’s success or failure in curbing the rate of climate change.