Special Report
The Likelihood of Dying from COVID After Testing Positive in Every State
Published:
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed 5.5 million lives globally as of early January 2022. More than 840,000 of those deaths have been in the United States — more than the total number of U.S. troops killed in battle in every war since the American Revolution.
Since the first known infection in the United States in early 2020, COVID-19 survival rates have improved considerably. Due in part to improved treatments as well as vaccines, which can reduce the severity of symptoms, those infected with the virus today are less likely to die than those who were infected earlier in the pandemic.
Currently, approximately 1.4% of known COVID-19 infections in the United States have resulted in death. This percentage varies from state to state, however, and in some parts of the country, infections are far more likely to be fatal than in others.
Using data from Johns Hopkins University’s interactive dashboard, 24/7 Tempo reviewed the case fatality ratio — the likelihood of dying from COVID-19 — in each state. States are ranked by the number of COVID-19 deaths as a share of the number of confirmed cases, or the infection fatality rate.
It is important to note that the case fatality rate is an imperfect measure, as it only takes into account the number of confirmed cases, and in all likelihood, there have been a significant number of unconfirmed cases in the U.S. Unconfirmed cases include asymptomatic people who never got tested and others whose illness went undocumented. As a result, the fatality rates listed likely overestimate the risk of death.
The official death toll from COVID-19 is also considered to be an underestimate, meaning the case fatality ratio could also be an underestimate in some cases. A recent report in The Lancet suggests that COVID-19 has likely caused as many as 195,000 more deaths nationwide in the last two years than the official figure.
Variations in case fatality rates by state are the result of a wide range of variables, including vaccination rates and overall population health as well as reporting. Americans who are fully vaccinated are far less likely to die from COVID-19 than those who are unvaccinated. The states with the highest risk of death from COVID-19 tend to be those with vaccination rates below the 63.6% U.S. average. Here is a look at 13 reasons Americans are not getting vaccinated.
Additionally, certain pre-existing diseases or conditions can make COVID-19 far more deadly than it would otherwise be. While there are many conditions associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes, two of the most common are obesity and diabetes. In states where the risk of death from COVID-19 is higher, rates of both diabetes and obesity tend to be higher than average. Here is a look at the most obese states in America.
Click here to see the likelihood of dying from COVID after testing positive in every state
To find the likelihood of dying from COVID-19 after testing positive, 24/7 Tempo reviewed COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins University’s interactive dashboard, whose methodology is explained in a Lancet article. States were ranked by their case fatality ratio — the number recorded deaths * 100 / number confirmed cases. Additional data from JHU includes total deaths, total cases, and cases per 100,000 people. We also added the death rate — deaths per 100,000 people. All data was collected on Jan. 11 and is as of Jan. 10.
Data on the share of the population that are fully vaccinated for each state came from state and local health departments. Data on diabetes and obesity rates among the adult population in each state County Health Rankings & Roadmap, a collaboration of University of Minnesota and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
50. Utah
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.55%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 123 per 100,000 people — 4th lowest (3,907 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 22,027 per 100,000 people — 5th highest (706,183 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 60.2% (24th highest)
> Obesity rate: 27.0% (8th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 7.5% (2nd lowest)
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49. Alaska
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.58%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 128 per 100,000 people — 5th lowest (980 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 23,050 per 100,000 people — 3rd highest (168,618 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 56.3% (18th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 31.9% (22nd highest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.3% (3rd lowest)
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48. Vermont
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.63%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 73 per 100,000 people — the lowest (483 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 12,288 per 100,000 people — 4th lowest (76,673 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 78.0% (the highest)
> Obesity rate: 27.0% (9th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.8% (7th lowest)
47. Hawaii
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.75%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 77 per 100,000 people — 2nd lowest (1,105 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 10,389 per 100,000 people — the lowest (147,099 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 64.4% (21st highest)
> Obesity rate: 24.6% (3rd lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.1% (17th highest)
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46. New Hampshire
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.91%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 149 per 100,000 people — 8th lowest (2,027 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 16,445 per 100,000 people — 9th lowest (223,599 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 67.9% (11th highest)
> Obesity rate: 28.6% (16th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.6% (17th lowest)
45. Wisconsin
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.94%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 196 per 100,000 people — 15th lowest (11,475 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,944 per 100,000 people — 13th highest (1,219,470 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 62.6% (22nd highest)
> Obesity rate: 31.7% (23rd highest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.5% (14th lowest)
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44. Nebraska
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 0.95%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 179 per 100,000 people — 9th lowest (3,468 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,799 per 100,000 people — 19th lowest (363,641 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 60.6% (23rd highest)
> Obesity rate: 33.4% (13th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.0% (22nd lowest)
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43. Colorado
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.01%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 183 per 100,000 people — 10th lowest (10,466 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,068 per 100,000 people — 16th lowest (1,040,510 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 67.6% (12th highest)
> Obesity rate: 22.4% (the lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 6.6% (the lowest)
42. Minnesota
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.02%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 194 per 100,000 people — 14th lowest (10,950 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,062 per 100,000 people — 21st lowest (1,075,028 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 66.4% (16th highest)
> Obesity rate: 29.0% (18th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.5% (4th lowest)
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41. Washington
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.02%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 132 per 100,000 people — 6th lowest (10,028 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 12,852 per 100,000 people — 5th lowest (978,680 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 69.2% (9th highest)
> Obesity rate: 28.6% (17th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.3% (11th lowest)
40. North Carolina
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.04%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 189 per 100,000 people — 12th lowest (19,685 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 17,997 per 100,000 people — 14th lowest (1,887,560 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 57.9% (21st lowest)
> Obesity rate: 32.3% (20th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.5% (14th highest)
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39. Maine
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.05%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 119 per 100,000 people — 3rd lowest (1,603 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 11,410 per 100,000 people — 3rd lowest (153,376 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 76.8% (3rd highest)
> Obesity rate: 29.8% (23rd lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.4% (24th highest)
38. Rhode Island
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.12%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 294 per 100,000 people — 14th highest (3,136 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 26,415 per 100,000 people — the highest (279,831 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 77.5% (2nd highest)
> Obesity rate: 28.5% (15th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.1% (24th lowest)
37. North Dakota
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.13%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 267 per 100,000 people — 25th highest (2,074 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 24,016 per 100,000 people — 2nd highest (183,013 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 53.2% (10th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 33.9% (11th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.4% (13th lowest)
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36. Delaware
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.14%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 236 per 100,000 people — 17th lowest (2,365 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,395 per 100,000 people — 9th highest (208,340 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 65.3% (17th highest)
> Obesity rate: 32.4% (18th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.8% (13th highest)
35. Oregon
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.21%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 137 per 100,000 people — 7th lowest (5,779 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 11,338 per 100,000 people — 2nd lowest (478,203 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 67.3% (13th highest)
> Obesity rate: 29.3% (21st lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.7% (18th lowest)
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34. California
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.22%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 192 per 100,000 people — 13th lowest (77,203 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 15,979 per 100,000 people — 8th lowest (6,313,572 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 66.9% (15th highest)
> Obesity rate: 24.3% (2nd lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.8% (6th lowest)
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33. Virginia
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.23%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 184 per 100,000 people — 11th lowest (15,671 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 14,981 per 100,000 people — 7th lowest (1,278,739 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 68.8% (10th highest)
> Obesity rate: 30.5% (24th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.7% (21st highest)
32. Kansas
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.23%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 242 per 100,000 people — 19th lowest (7,115 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,898 per 100,000 people — 21st highest (579,682 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 57.6% (20th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 33.0% (15th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.5% (23rd highest)
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31. Illinois
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.26%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 248 per 100,000 people — 20th lowest (31,001 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,415 per 100,000 people — 24th highest (2,460,270 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 64.5% (19th highest)
> Obesity rate: 29.7% (22nd lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.9% (19th lowest)
30. Idaho
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.29%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 241 per 100,000 people — 18th lowest (4,238 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,407 per 100,000 people — 18th lowest (328,946 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 47.4% (the lowest)
> Obesity rate: 29.0% (19th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.3% (12th lowest)
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29. Wyoming
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.29%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 272 per 100,000 people — 24th highest (1,572 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,996 per 100,000 people — 12th highest (121,519 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 48.1% (2nd lowest)
> Obesity rate: 29.2% (20th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.0% (9th lowest)
28. Iowa
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.32%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 254 per 100,000 people — 22nd lowest (8,019 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,271 per 100,000 people — 25th lowest (608,000 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 59.4% (25th highest)
> Obesity rate: 34.3% (8th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.9% (21st lowest)
27. Florida
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.32%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 294 per 100,000 people — 15th highest (62,810 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 22,158 per 100,000 people — 4th highest (4,759,073 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 64.4% (20th highest)
> Obesity rate: 27.2% (12th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.8% (20th highest)
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26. South Dakota
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.32%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 286 per 100,000 people — 19th highest (2,528 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,601 per 100,000 people — 7th highest (191,094 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 57.9% (22nd lowest)
> Obesity rate: 32.4% (19th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.1% (23rd lowest)
25. Kentucky
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.33%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 276 per 100,000 people — 22nd highest (12,425 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,873 per 100,000 people — 14th highest (932,552 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 54.7% (15th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 34.6% (6th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.7% (7th highest)
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24. South Carolina
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.35%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 290 per 100,000 people — 18th highest (14,793 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,252 per 100,000 people — 10th highest (1,094,226 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 54.3% (13th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 34.0% (9th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 13.3% (5th highest)
23. Ohio
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.36%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 254 per 100,000 people — 21st lowest (30,072 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,883 per 100,000 people — 20th lowest (2,207,270 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 55.8% (17th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 33.5% (12th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.2% (10th highest)
22. Montana
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.43%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 274 per 100,000 people — 23rd highest (2,921 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,161 per 100,000 people — 24th lowest (204,788 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 54.6% (14th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 27.1% (11th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.9% (8th lowest)
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21. Tennessee
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.43%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 311 per 100,000 people — 6th highest (20,941 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,423 per 100,000 people — 8th highest (1,462,996 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 52.2% (8th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 33.3% (14th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.5% (8th highest)
20. New York
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.44%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 306 per 100,000 people — 8th highest (60,689 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,616 per 100,000 people — 6th highest (4,205,019 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 72.3% (6th highest)
> Obesity rate: 26.4% (6th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.1% (25th lowest)
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19. Indiana
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.45%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 291 per 100,000 people — 17th highest (19,796 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,302 per 100,000 people — 17th highest (1,366,754 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 52.7% (9th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 33.9% (10th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.1% (11th highest)
18. Maryland
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.46%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 200 per 100,000 people — 16th lowest (12,258 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 13,905 per 100,000 people — 6th lowest (840,623 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 71.1% (7th highest)
> Obesity rate: 31.6% (24th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.1% (16th highest)
17. Missouri
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.48%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 266 per 100,000 people — 25th lowest (16,515 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,152 per 100,000 people — 17th lowest (1,114,094 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 53.5% (11th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 32.5% (16th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.4% (15th highest)
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16. Arkansas
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.50%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 308 per 100,000 people — 7th highest (9,333 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,613 per 100,000 people — 15th highest (622,069 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 51.8% (6th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 35.0% (5th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 13.5% (4th highest)
15. Texas
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.50%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 261 per 100,000 people — 24th lowest (76,530 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 17,546 per 100,000 people — 12th lowest (5,087,686 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 58.1% (24th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 31.4% (25th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.2% (25th highest)
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14. West Virginia
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.51%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 299 per 100,000 people — 10th highest (5,445 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,103 per 100,000 people — 19th highest (360,269 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 55.0% (16th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 37.8% (2nd highest)
> Diabetes rate: 15.1% (the highest)
13. Massachusetts
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.54%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 297 per 100,000 people — 12th highest (20,643 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,509 per 100,000 people — 23rd highest (1,344,643 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 75.2% (5th highest)
> Obesity rate: 25.0% (4th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 8.7% (5th lowest)
12. Connecticut
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.55%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 260 per 100,000 people — 23rd lowest (9,377 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 16,972 per 100,000 people — 10th lowest (605,116 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 75.2% (4th highest)
> Obesity rate: 26.3% (5th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.2% (10th lowest)
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11. Georgia
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.56%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 300 per 100,000 people — 9th highest (31,694 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,075 per 100,000 people — 23rd lowest (2,025,262 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 51.9% (7th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 32.3% (21st highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.0% (12th highest)
10. Michigan
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.58%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 298 per 100,000 people — 11th highest (30,014 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,075 per 100,000 people — 22nd lowest (1,904,949 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 57.3% (19th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 32.4% (17th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.0% (18th highest)
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9. New Jersey
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.58%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 329 per 100,000 people — 4th highest (29,494 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 21,017 per 100,000 people — 11th highest (1,866,735 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 71.0% (8th highest)
> Obesity rate: 27.0% (7th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.9% (20th lowest)
8. New Mexico
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.59%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 285 per 100,000 people — 20th highest (6,020 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 18,045 per 100,000 people — 15th lowest (378,363 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 66.9% (14th highest)
> Obesity rate: 27.3% (13th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.5% (15th lowest)
7. Louisiana
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.61%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 323 per 100,000 people — 5th highest (15,073 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,165 per 100,000 people — 18th highest (937,447 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 50.6% (5th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 36.3% (3rd highest)
> Diabetes rate: 13.0% (6th highest)
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6. Nevada
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.62%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 280 per 100,000 people — 21st highest (8,527 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 17,061 per 100,000 people — 11th lowest (525,511 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 58.0% (23rd lowest)
> Obesity rate: 27.1% (10th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 10.5% (22nd highest)
5. Pennsylvania
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.64%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 292 per 100,000 people — 16th highest (37,686 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 17,928 per 100,000 people — 13th lowest (2,295,089 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 64.6% (18th highest)
> Obesity rate: 30.8% (25th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 11.0% (19th highest)
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4. Oklahoma
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.65%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 295 per 100,000 people — 13th highest (12,650 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,324 per 100,000 people — 25th highest (764,651 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 54.2% (12th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 34.5% (7th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 12.3% (9th highest)
3. Arizona
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.66%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 343 per 100,000 people — 2nd highest (24,773 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,518 per 100,000 people — 16th highest (1,493,420 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 58.5% (25th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 27.9% (14th lowest)
> Diabetes rate: 9.6% (16th lowest)
2. Alabama
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.69%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 339 per 100,000 people — 3rd highest (16,624 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 20,087 per 100,000 people — 20th highest (984,882 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 48.3% (3rd lowest)
> Obesity rate: 36.1% (4th highest)
> Diabetes rate: 14.5% (3rd highest)
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1. Mississippi
> Confirmed cases resulting in death: 1.79%
> Cumulative COVID-19 deaths: 352 per 100,000 people — the highest (10,527 total)
> Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases: 19,708 per 100,000 people — 22nd highest (586,547 total)
> Fully vaccinated population: 48.7% (4th lowest)
> Obesity rate: 39.1% (the highest)
> Diabetes rate: 14.6% (2nd highest)
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