Special Report

Each Remaining Playoff’s Team Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

Grant Suneson

Published: January 18, 2022 2:00 pm

After Super Wild Card Weekend, just eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs. The teams that won their divisions and earned home field advantage continued to play well, and just one Wild Card team was able to pick up a road playoff win.

All eight teams are just three victories away from being crowned Super Bowl champions. But because of home field advantage, superstar quarterbacks, and quality coaching, some of these teams have a much better chance to win the Super Bowl than others.

To determine each remaining NFL team’s chance of winning the Super Bowl, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL Predictions, which are based on 50,000 simulated games and are updated after every game. The predictions are as of Jan. 17, 2022, and teams are ranked by their Elo rating, which measures quality based on results and the quality of opponents. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.

Most of the Wild Card games were blowouts. The Buffalo Bills crushed their division rivals, the New England Patriots, 47-17. All of the Bills’ possessions ended in a touchdown or kneel down to run out the clock — the first time any team has accomplished this feat in NFL history, regular season or playoffs.

The defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the Philadelphia Eagles scoreless for three quarters and coasted to a 31-15 win. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 as quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns. The Los Angeles Rams defense smothered the Arizona Cardinals’ offense as LA eased to a 34-11 victory.

The Cincinnati Bengals finally won their first postseason game in over 30 years, holding off the Las Vegas Raiders 26-19. The Bengals jumped out to an early lead, but the Raiders clawed back into the game and nearly came back to tie it, but Raiders QB Derek Carr threw a last-minute goal line interception to seal the game.

The San Francisco 49ers were the only team that managed to pull off a road win in the opening round of the playoffs, upsetting the Dallas Cowboys 23-17. Dallas was driving in the dying seconds of the game but ran an ill-advised quarterback draw with 14 seconds left. The Cowboys could not stop the clock, and time ran out on their playoff hopes. The team will have to wait another year to try to add to their illustrious playoff history. These are the players with the most Super Bowl rings.

Click here to see each remaining playoff team’s chance of winning the Super Bowl.

8. Cincinnati Bengals
> 2021 record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 8%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 3%
> Playoff seed: AFC #4
> Next opponent: Tennessee Titans

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7. San Francisco 49ers
> 2021 record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 4%
> Playoff seed: NFC #6
> Next opponent: Green Bay Packers

24/7 Wall St.
Most and Least Valuable Teams in the NFL

6. Los Angeles Rams
> 2021 record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 13%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> Playoff seed: NFC #4
> Next opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. Tennessee Titans
> 2021 record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> Playoff seed: AFC #1
> Next opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

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4. Buffalo Bills
> 2021 record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 22%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 12%
> Playoff seed: AFC #3
> Next opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> 2021 record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 30%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 15%
> Playoff seed: NFC #2
> Next opponent: Los Angeles Rams

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2. Kansas City Chiefs
> 2021 record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 43%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 24%
> Playoff seed: AFC #2
> Next opponent: Buffalo Bills

24/7 Wall St.
NFL Teams With the All-Time Worst Losing Streaks

1. Green Bay Packers
> 2021 record: 13-4
> Pct. chance to make the Super Bowl: 48%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 25%
> Playoff seed: NFC #1
> Next opponent: San Francisco 49ers