Most Americans should be prepared with sunscreen, shade, and plenty of water, as the summer of 2022 is expected to be a hot one. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s summer forecast predicts nearly the whole country will have above average temperatures from June through August.
Global average temperatures have been on the rise over recent decades. Thanks to climate change, that trend is likely to continue. Intensifying summer heat could have Americans fondly remembering past summers with cooler temperatures.
To determine how a normal season feels in every state, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed station-level data on climate normals for June, July, and August from the National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Several states in the southwestern part of the country have the highest chance – about 50% – of experiencing above-average temperatures this summer. Other states, primarily in the Southeast and Northeast, are also projected to have a 40% chance of a warmer than normal summer.
In the past, most states typically have had relatively pleasant average temperatures in the summer of somewhere between 65°F and 75°F throughout the summer. Only three states average summer temperatures above 80°F. Alaska is the only state with average summer temperatures below 60°F. This is the American city with the best weather.
NOAA also warned that the drought could intensify. Though some of the East Coast may have above-average precipitation levels this summer, much of the West, Southwest, and Midwest are projected to get less rain than is typical in the summer.
Click here to see how a normal summer feels in every state
Click here to read our detailed methodology
Alabama
> Avg. summer temperature: 78.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.65 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: August 2007 (84.4°F)
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Alaska
> Avg. summer temperature: 54.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.25 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1989 (58.1°F)
Arizona
> Avg. summer temperature: 79.1°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 50% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.49 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: August 2020 (84.1°F)
Arkansas
> Avg. summer temperature: 79.0°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.58 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of higher rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 1954 (85.4°F)
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California
> Avg. summer temperature: 71.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 0.21 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2021 (79.8°F)
Colorado
> Avg. summer temperature: 66.3°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.95 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of lower rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 2003 (72.4°F)
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Connecticut
> Avg. summer temperature: 69.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.31 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2013 (75.9°F)
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Delaware
> Avg. summer temperature: 74.9°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.15 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2012 (80.9°F)
Florida
> Avg. summer temperature: 81.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 7.36 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: June 1998 (84.1°F)
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Georgia
> Avg. summer temperature: 78.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.84 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1986 (83.4°F)
Hawaii
> Avg. summer temperature: 74.2°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.58 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: N/A
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Idaho
> Avg. summer temperature: 65.3°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.00 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2007 (72.0°F)
Illinois
> Avg. summer temperature: 73.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.00 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (82.8°F)
Indiana
> Avg. summer temperature: 72.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.09 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (80.5°F)
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Iowa
> Avg. summer temperature: 71.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.56 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (82.7°F)
Kansas
> Avg. summer temperature: 76.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.94 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1934 (86.8°F)
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Kentucky
> Avg. summer temperature: 74.9°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.06 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1901 (81.2°F)
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Louisiana
> Avg. summer temperature: 81.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 5.21 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: August 2011 (86.7°F)
Maine
> Avg. summer temperature: 64.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.84 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1921 (70.0°F)
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Maryland
> Avg. summer temperature: 74.2°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.92 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2020 (80.1°F)
Massachusetts
> Avg. summer temperature: 68.4°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.94 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2013 (75.0°F)
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Michigan
> Avg. summer temperature: 67.0°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.30 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1921 (74.7°F)
Minnesota
> Avg. summer temperature: 67.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.02 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (75.8°F)
Mississippi
> Avg. summer temperature: 79.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.53 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: August 1954 (84.2°F)
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Missouri
> Avg. summer temperature: 75.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.20 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of higher rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 1934 (85.7°F)
Montana
> Avg. summer temperature: 64.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.79 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of higher rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (73.7°F)
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Nebraska
> Avg. summer temperature: 72.1°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.33 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (82.7°F)
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Nevada
> Avg. summer temperature: 71.4°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 50% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 0.52 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2021 (77.7°F)
New Hampshire
> Avg. summer temperature: 65.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.23 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2020 (71.1°F)
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New Jersey
> Avg. summer temperature: 72.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.32 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2020 (78.8°F)
New Mexico
> Avg. summer temperature: 71.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 50% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 2.12 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of lower rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 2016 (76.9°F)
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New York
> Avg. summer temperature: 67.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.00 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1921 (73.2°F)
North Carolina
> Avg. summer temperature: 75.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.91 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1993 (80.7°F)
North Dakota
> Avg. summer temperature: 67.1°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 50% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 2.76 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (80.1°F)
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Ohio
> Avg. summer temperature: 71.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.88 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1901 (78.0°F)
Oklahoma
> Avg. summer temperature: 79.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.51 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2011 (89.2°F)
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Oregon
> Avg. summer temperature: 64.4°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 0.95 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2021 (71.4°F)
Pennsylvania
> Avg. summer temperature: 69.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.09 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1955 (74.9°F)
Rhode Island
> Avg. summer temperature: 69.2°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 3.79 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2013 (76.4°F)
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South Carolina
> Avg. summer temperature: 78.8°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.90 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1993 (84.2°F)
South Dakota
> Avg. summer temperature: 69.9°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 2.88 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1936 (83.3°F)
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Tennessee
> Avg. summer temperature: 75.9°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.22 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: August 2007 (82.6°F)
Texas
> Avg. summer temperature: 81.7°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 50% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 2.99 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of lower rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: August 2011 (88.2°F)
Utah
> Avg. summer temperature: 70.3°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 0.91 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of lower rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 2003 (77.2°F)
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Vermont
> Avg. summer temperature: 65.2°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.40 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1921 (71.3°F)
Virginia
> Avg. summer temperature: 73.9°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.11 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2012 (78.7°F)
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Washington
> Avg. summer temperature: 64.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.23 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of higher rainfall than normal
> Hottest month on record: July 2021 (69.7°F)
West Virginia
> Avg. summer temperature: 70.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of being warmer than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.34 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1901 (76.1°F)
Wisconsin
> Avg. summer temperature: 67.6°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 40% chance of being cooler than normal
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 4.11 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 1921 (75.0°F)
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Wyoming
> Avg. summer temperature: 64.5°F
> Temperature prediction for June: 33% chance of normal temperature
> Avg. monthly summer rainfall: 1.32 in.
> Precipitation prediction for June: 33% chance of normal rainfall
> Hottest month on record: July 2007 (70.7°F)
Methodology
To determine how a normal season feels in every state, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed station-level data on climate normals for June, July, and August from the National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. State-level average daily temperature and average monthly rainfall totals were calculated by averaging 1981-2010 climate normals data for June, July, and August for all weather stations with available data in the Global Historical Climatology Network.
Data on climate outlook for June 2022 and the likelihood of a warmer or cooler temperature or higher or lower rainfall came from the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and are relative to climate normals for the 1991-2020 period. Data used to calculate the hottest month on record came from the NOAA’s statewide time series dataset and goes back to 1895.
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