To get an idea of how modern technological advances are a leading cause in the decline of certain professions, consider the insurance underwriter, a professional who evaluates risk and establishes the price to insure people or assets.
While insurance remains in high demand, many of the tasks involved in these risk and price determinations have been automated, using algorithmic evaluations that require fewer human inputs. The result is a projected 1.8% decline in the number of insurance underwriters between 2020 and 2030, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
To determine the 25 fastest shrinking jobs that require a college degree, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed Bureau of Labor Statistics employment growth projections from 2020 to 2030 per occupation. We considered only occupations that require a college degree, from associate’s degree higher, and that have a negative projected employment growth. Occupations were ranked based on the decline in employment. Median annual wage is for 2021, also from the BLS. Note that the BLS caps wages at $208,000, so occupations noted to have this median wage could have a higher median.
Insurance underwriters are not the only profession getting squeezed out by automated digital technologies. Other professions include tax examiners, human resources assistants, drafters, credit analysts, and purchasing agents. These are all jobs that are using more software and fewer people over time.
Thanks to outsourcing and remote work technologies, the number of U.S.-based computer programmers is expected to shrink by almost 10% by 2030 as companies outsource such jobs to countries like India that have lower-wage, comparably skilled programmers.
Among these 25 occupations, the projected employment decline ranges from 0.3% to 12.4%. Desktop publishers, who use computer software to design page layouts for items that are printed or published online, is the second shrinking job that requires a college degree, thanks largely to the decline in print and software that makes the skill more broadly accessible. The fastest shrinking job is nuclear technicians, as more U.S. nuclear power plants are retired. (These are America’s oldest nuclear power plants.)
Fourteen of the 25 occupations on the list pay annual wages above the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760 or the mean wage $58,260. Six of these occupations currently employ nearly 1.5 million workers — led by purchasing agents, pharmacists, and CEOs. (These are the highest paying jobs you can have in America.)
Some professions expected to shrink despite a projected shortage. For example, the BLS projects the number of anesthesiologists to shrink by 0.5% by 2030 even as the Association of American Medical Colleges expects a shortfall of 12,500 anesthesiologists by 2033. This could present an opportunity for medical students and professionals to specialize in the field and enjoy high demand.
Here are the fastest shrinking jobs that require a college education
25. Landscape architects
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -0.3%
> Median annual wage: $67,950– #127 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 23,700 — #90 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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24. Anesthesiologists
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -0.5%
> Median annual wage: $208,000– #302 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 31,300 — #119 lowest out of 306 Jobs
23. Embalmers
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -0.6%
> Median annual wage: $47,780– #27 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 5,000 — #14 lowest out of 306 Jobs
22. General internal medicine physicians
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -0.7%
> Median annual wage: $208,000– #304 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 55,500 — #160 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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21. Architectural and civil drafters
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -0.9%
> Median annual wage: $60,340– #69 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 99,900 — #208 lowest out of 306 Jobs
20. Farm and home management educators
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -1.2%
> Median annual wage: $49,990– #49 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 9,300 — #36 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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19. Electro-mechanical and mechatronics technologists and technicians
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -1.7%
> Median annual wage: $60,360– #70 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 13,400 — #50 lowest out of 306 Jobs
18. Pediatricians, general
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -1.8%
> Median annual wage: $170,480– #293 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 30,200 — #116 lowest out of 306 Jobs
17. Insurance underwriters
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -1.8%
> Median annual wage: $76,390– #141 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 119,400 — #220 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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16. Obstetricians and gynecologists
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -2.1%
> Median annual wage: $208,000– #300 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 20,700 — #84 lowest out of 306 Jobs
15. Pharmacists
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -2.2%
> Median annual wage: $128,570– #280 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 322,200 — #276 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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14. Surgeons, except ophthalmologists
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -2.8%
> Median annual wage: $208,000– #303 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 41,500 — #135 lowest out of 306 Jobs
13. Human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -2.9%
> Median annual wage: $45,630– #17 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 112,000 — #215 lowest out of 306 Jobs
12. Tax examiners and collectors, and revenue agents
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -3.7%
> Median annual wage: $56,780– #55 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 56,900 — #163 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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11. Labor relations specialists
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -4.3%
> Median annual wage: $77,010– #144 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 73,500 — #185 lowest out of 306 Jobs
10. Mechanical drafters
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -4.7%
> Median annual wage: $60,200– #65 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 53,600 — #156 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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9. Adult basic education, adult secondary education, and English as a Second Language instructors
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -5.0%
> Median annual wage: $59,720 — #59 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 48,300 — #148 lowest out of 306 Jobs
8. Drafters, all other
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -5.4%
> Median annual wage: $54,240– #52 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 14,400 — #57 lowest out of 306 Jobs
7. Buyers and purchasing agents
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -5.4%
> Median annual wage: $63,470– #113 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 439,000 — #288 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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6. Chief executives
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -5.7%
> Median annual wage: $179,520– #295 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 292,500 — #268 lowest out of 306 Jobs
5. Credit analysts
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -5.8%
> Median annual wage: $77,440– #152 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 73,000 — #182 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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4. Nuclear engineers
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -8.4%
> Median annual wage: $120,380– #264 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 17,200 — #68 lowest out of 306 Jobs
3. Computer programmers
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -9.9%
> Median annual wage: $93,000– #208 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 185,700 — #246 lowest out of 306 Jobs
2. Desktop publishers
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -12.3%
> Median annual wage: $46,910– #20 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 8,200 — #33 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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1. Nuclear technicians
> Employment growth projection (2020-2030): -12.4%
> Median annual wage: $99,340– #236 lowest out of 306 Jobs
> Total employment: 6,600 — #20 lowest out of 306 Jobs
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