Special Report
These Are the Places Most Likely to Have Wildfires
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Since January, nearly 32,000 wildfires have scorched more 3.3 million acres in the U.S., the National Interagency Fire Center estimates. Currently, 50 active fires are burning across 1.7 million acres. Sadly, the agency says nine of out 10 wildfires are human-caused and therefore preventable. (These are the 30 most destructive wildfires in the U.S. this century.)
Nationally, more than 71.8 million homes are at risk of a fire hazard, reports Risk Factor, an online tool from the nonprofit First Street Foundation that assesses a property’s risk from environmental threat such as fire or flooding.
Not every area in the nation carries the same fire risk. Some counties and states are more prone to wildfires than others, with western states including California, Texas, and Arizona disproportionately at higher risk. To determine the places most likely to have wildfires, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Risk Assessment from climate risk assessment advocacy group First Street Foundation. U.S. counties were ranked based on the percentage of properties with at least a 0.03% risk of burning in 2022.
Based on First Street Foundation’s most recent evaluation, portions of Texas and New Mexico are most vulnerable to a wildfire. Seven high-risk counties are in Texas, followed closely by six in New Mexico. (This is the state where temperature is rising the fastest.)
New Mexico is currently fighting three fires burning 671,493 acres, the National Interagency Fire Center notes. One fire in Texas is scorching 500 acres. Although not on this list, there are 30 large fires in Alaska across 925,548 acres.
These fire-borne disasters take a huge human and financial toll. According to risk assessment firm Aon, insured losses from wildfires in three of the past four years – 2017, 2018, and 2020 – have exceeded more than $12 billion in the U.S.
In 2021, 58,968 wildfires burned 7.1 million acres, the Congressional Research Service reported in June. The blazes led to the deaths of 15 firefighters and 33 civilians through October 2021. And just in mid-April, an elderly couple perished in the McBride wildfire in Ruidoso, New Mexico, Reuters reported.
Click here to see the places most likely to have wild fires
20. Schleicher County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.5%
> Total properties at risk: 4,100
> Largest city in the county: Eldorado
When the Pope 2 wildfire began in Schleicher County in mid-May, the burn area reached about 500 acres and was reportedly 40% contained. But within two days, the fire spread to 2,000 acres and was said to be 50% contained, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. The Pope 2 wildfire was centered about 10 miles southwest of Fort McKavett, a historic military outpost active during the Texas Indian Wars of 1850-1875.
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19. Coryell County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.5%
> Total properties at risk: 28,200
> Largest city in the county: Copperas Cove
Fueled by grass and brush, about 33,000 acres were on fire near Fort Hood military base in late March. Soon after the blaze started, firefighters quelled the blaze by 55%. A New York Times report said no evacuations were ordered and the fire posed no threat to residents or buildings. As for a possible cause, the Times reported the wildfire may have been started by soldiers live-training with small arms on weapons ranges or mortar training.
18. Gila County, Arizona
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.5%
> Total properties at risk: 31,400
> Largest city in the county: Payson
Known as the Telegraph and Mescal fires, the Gila County blazes scorched more than 150,000 acres in June, prompting multiple evacuations and a State of Emergency order from the Gila County Board of Supervisors. Some 1,500 firefighters battled the fire, which was said to be human caused and accelerated by the worst drought conditions seen in the state in 1,000 years.
17. Baca County, Colorado
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.6%
> Total properties at risk: 600
> Largest city in the county: Springfield
Sprouting up near a number of highways in Baca County, wildfires burned across 1,200 acres in mid-May. According to local reports, the fires were soon brought under control.
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16. Santa Fe County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.6%
> Total properties at risk: 74,500
> Largest city in the county: Santa Fe
The largest wildfire recorded in the state’s history started in June, when the U.S. Forest Service set several prescribed burns, a method to clear out combustible brush. However, the fire leaped out of control, spreading to 500 square miles and destroying hundreds of homes. President Joe Biden visited the area and promised expedited federal aid to pay for emergency response and debris removal.
15. McPherson County, Nebraska
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.9%
> Total properties at risk: 1,600
> Largest city in the county: N/A
In July 2012, firefighters fought a 1,000-acre blaze at the Nebraska National Forest, a 141,864-acre park established in 1907. A lightning storm ignited the fire, which forced evacuation of two nearby campsites. Thick smoke made driving in the area difficult, but no injuries were reported.
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14. Winkler County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.9%
> Total properties at risk: 6,100
> Largest city in the county: Kermit
Located 14 miles south of Kermit, Texa, the Sands wildfire in Winkler County began Aug. 27, 2020. More recently, Gov. Greg Abbott renewed a Disaster Declaration in May in response to wildfires spreading in a number of Texas counties, including Winkler. In May, a red flag warning for heightened fire conditions was issued for Winkler County.
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13. Carson City, Nevada
> Pct. of properties at risk: 96.9%
> Total properties at risk: 19,600
On June 17, a wildfire ignited a building at the Genoa Cemetery in Carson City. Nearby roads were closed to motorists due to the smoke, and evacuations were ordered for several neighborhoods. The fire was soon contained.
12. Kimble County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.1%
> Total properties at risk: 8,600
> Largest city in the county: Junction
The Whitworth Fire in Kimble County blazed across 15 acres in early June. As smoke rose, planes doused the flames with fire retardant, containing 30% of the blaze. Earlier in May, a 55-acre wildfire in Kimble County was brought under 90% control.
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11. Custer County, South Dakota
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.3%
> Total properties at risk: 12,500
> Largest city in the county: Custer
Strong winds accelerated a wildfire burning between 40 to 100 acres in Custer in early April. Soon after it began, 30% of the fire was contained. Residents ordered to evacuate were told to find shelter at the Custer Armory.
10. Guadalupe County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.5%
> Total properties at risk: 700
> Largest city in the county: Santa Rosa
A wildfire estimated to burn between 200 and 600 acres blazed near the Guadalupe and Torrance county borders in June 2017. Firefighters from the U.S. Forest Service, New Mexico State Forestry, Torrance County, and the Bureau of Land Management responded. The fire reportedly threatened no structures.
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9. San Miguel County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.7%
> Total properties at risk: 28,100
> Largest city in the county: Las Vegas
In early May, a wildfire east of Santa Fe was said to be the largest fire burning in the U.S. at the time. Covering all of San Miguel County, the fire reached over 100,000 acres. Max Trujillo, a commissioner for San Miguel County, told NPR the fire started when a prescribed burn at Hermit’s Peak spread and ignited the Calf Canyon blaze. Trujillo attributed the wildfire to low snowpack and hotter, drier weather.
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8. Arthur County, Nebraska
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.8%
> Total properties at risk: 1,100
> Largest city in the county: Arthur
Wildfires swept across several states in April, including southwest Nebraska. A retired fire chief, John Trumble, died fighting the prairie fire in rural Nebraska. Fifteen fighters sustained injuries, and six homes were destroyed.
7. Hooker County, Nebraska
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.8%
> Total properties at risk: 1,800
> Largest city in the county: Mullen
On May 18, the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for Hooker County. Citing low humidity, warm temperatures, and strong winds, the agency said conditions were ripe for a wildfire.
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6. Menard County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.8%
> Total properties at risk: 5,000
> Largest city in the county: Menard
A wildfire broke out on Aug. 8, 2020, in Menard County. Located 4 miles northeast of Fort McKavett, the 300-acre brush fire was set ablaze by lightning.
5. Gillespie County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.9%
> Total properties at risk: 27,000
> Largest city in the county: Fredericksburg
The Gillespie County Commissioners Court instituted a burn ban in late March, prohibiting residents from outdoor burning. Hot, dry conditions and no significant rainfall increased the risk of a wildfire, local officials said.
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4. Colfax County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 97.9%
> Total properties at risk: 24,100
> Largest city in the county: Raton
In mid-May, the Calf Canyon/Hermit’s Peak wildfire covered 260,000 acres with containment estimated at 29%. The blaze prompted mandatory evacuation orders for residents in the communities of Black Lake and Hidden Lake in Colfax County.
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3. Harding County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 98.0%
> Total properties at risk: 5,200
> Largest city in the county: Roy
The Mitchell Fire in Harding County burned some 25,000 acres in late April. No structures were in the path of the fire, and no evacuations were ordered. No cause was identified.
2. Mason County, Texas
> Pct. of properties at risk: 98.8%
> Total properties at risk: 6,300
> Largest city in the county: Mason
After a spate of wildfires in the summer of 2018, the Mason County Sheriff’s office set up a task force to study the events. A spokesperson for the department said 15 fires in a short period raised suspicions. At the time of the announcement, the Kings Landing Fire scorched 62 acres and was 30% contained.
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1. Los Alamos County, New Mexico
> Pct. of properties at risk: 98.9%
> Total properties at risk: 8,300
> Largest city in the county: Los Alamos
A May wildfire in Los Alamos County swept over 40,000 acres. Evacuations were not ordered immediately, but residents were cautioned to prepare to leave at short notice. In 2011, the Cerro Grande Fire and the Las Conchas fire struck the same community.
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