The midterm elections are only about a month away, and across the country, political campaigns are in full swing. A handful of key, closely contested races will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years and could meaningfully alter the balance of power in Washington. Still, the majority of races – particularly for the U.S. Senate – are decidedly lopsided.
There are a total of 34 senate seats up for grabs this November, and in 28 of them, an incumbent senator is running for reelection. Historically, incumbent senators have held a significant advantage in election years, benefitting from greater name recognition, a larger fundraising network, and often, challengers who lack a similar level of qualifications.
Going back to 1964, over 80% of incumbent senators have won their reelection bid, and this year will likely be no different. (Here is a look at America’s most popular senators.)
Reviewing a range of polling and fundraising data, 24/7 Wall St. identified the U.S. senators who are most likely to keep their job this year. Each incumbent senator on this list is up for reelection in November and has at least an 80% chance of winning, according to poll analysis from data analytics company FiveThirtyEight. The projections model aggregates poll results and weights them based on pollster quality and sample size. Senators are ranked by their odds of winning.
The candidates on this list have raised anywhere from $3.5 million to over $50 million to fund their reelection campaigns. And in the majority of cases, this fundraising accounts for over 90% of the total fundraising for the entire race, including money raised by other rivals.
This list is made up of 11 Democrats and 13 Republicans. The majority of these candidates – 15 out of 24 – have been in office for over a decade, including some who were first sworn in in the 1980s and ‘90s. (Here is a look at the senators who became more popular in the last year.)
Click here to see 24 Senate seats least likely to flip this year.
Click here to see our detailed methodology.
24. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 82%
> Assumed office in: 2020
> Campaign fundraising: $52.4 million (91.1% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Blake Masters (R)
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23. Sen. Margaret Hassan, D-New Hampshire
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 84%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $30.9 million (98.1% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Don Bolduc (R)
22. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 86%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $36.5 million (43.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Val Demings (D)
21. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colorado
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 92%
> Assumed office in: 2009
> Campaign fundraising: $14.3 million (80.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Joe O’Dea (R)
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20. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 93%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $7.9 million (71.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Evan McMullin (I)
19. Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 93%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $28.3 million (91.6% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Luke Mixon (D)
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18. Sen. Todd Young, R-Indiana
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 97%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $13.0 million (95.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Tom McDermott (D)
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17. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 97%
> Assumed office in: 1993
> Campaign fundraising: $14.3 million (66.9% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Tiffany Smiley (R)
16. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: 98%
> Assumed office in: 1981
> Campaign fundraising: $7.5 million (61.9% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mike Franken (D)
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15. Sen. John Hoeven, R-North Dakota
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $3.5 million (99.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Katrina Christiansen (D)
14. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2012
> Campaign fundraising: $4.2 million (99.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Bob McDermott (R)
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13. Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $6.0 million (93.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mark Holland (D)
12. Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1999
> Campaign fundraising: $6.2 million (98.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: David Roth (D)
11. Sen. James Lankford, R-Oklahoma
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2015
> Campaign fundraising: $6.4 million (97.6% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Madison Horn (D)
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10. Sen. John Boozman, R-Arkansas
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $6.7 million (99.3% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Natalie James (D)
9. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Maryland
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $8.0 million (100.0% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Chris Chaffee (R)
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8. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $8.1 million (85.4% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Leora Levy (R)
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7. Sen. Alex Padilla, D-California
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2021
> Campaign fundraising: $10.6 million (95.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Mark Meuser (R)
6. Sen. John Thune, R-South Dakota
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2005
> Campaign fundraising: $11.2 million (98.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Brian Bengs (D)
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5. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1996
> Campaign fundraising: $12.5 million (99.7% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Jo Rae Perkins (R)
4. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Illinois
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2017
> Campaign fundraising: $17.7 million (97.5% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Kathy Salvi (R)
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3. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2011
> Campaign fundraising: $22.4 million (83.2% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Charles Booker (D)
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2. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-New York
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 1999
> Campaign fundraising: $38.5 million (98.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Joseph Pinion III (R)
1. Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina
> Projected odds of winning in Nov. 2022: >99%
> Assumed office in: 2013
> Campaign fundraising: $44.3 million (99.8% of total race fundraising)
> Opponent: Krystle Matthews (D)
Methodology
To identify the U.S. senators who are most likely to win in the November 2022 midterm elections, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed fundraising and polling data for each of the 28 incumbent senators running for reelection.
Using polling data analysis from data analytics company FiveThirtyEight, we selected those senators who are projected to have at least an 80% chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight’s projections are based on polling data that is weighted for pollster quality and sample size. All polling data is current as of Oct. 3, 2022.
We also reviewed campaign fundraising data from the Federal Election Commission, compiled by the nonprofit, nonpartisan campaign finance transparency website, OpenSecrets. All fundraising data is current as of Oct. 4, 2022.
Senators in this story are ranked by their odds of winning. In the case of a tie, the senator who has raised the most in campaign contributions ranks higher. In listing opponents, we only considered those running in one of the two major political parties.
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