Humanity Closer Than Ever to Destroying Itself: The Doomsday Clock Over the Years

Two years after the end of World War II, world nations are aligning themselves either with the East, the Soviet Union and communism, or with the West, as the world is gearing up to the Cold War. The clock makes its debut at seven minutes to midnight.

The Soviet Union attempts to take control of Berlin by blocking all road traffic to the city, fueling tensions between the communist country and Western powers.

The Soviet Union tests its first nuclear weapon. The Bulletin states, “We do not advise Americans that doomsday is near and that they can expect atomic bombs to start falling on their heads a month or year from now, but we think they have reason to be deeply alarmed and to be prepared for grave decisions.” The clock is advanced from seven to three minutes to midnight.

The conflict between North Korea, which is supported by communist China and the Soviets, and South Korea, which is supported by the U.S., breaks into war in June. Often called the forgotten war, the Korean War would end in 1953.

The nuclear threat continues to hover around the world in 1951. Julius and Ethel Rosenberg are convicted of passing U.S. nuclear secrets to the Soviet Union and are sentenced to death. Yet for the first time electricity is generated from a nuclear power plant.

Britain joins the nuclear club when it tests its first atomic weapon.

After the Soviet Union detonates a thermonuclear device, then Secretary of State John Foster Dulles tells the United Nations that “physical scientists have now found means which, if they are developed, can wipe life off the surface of the planet.” Meanwhile, the U.S. decides to pursue a hydrogen bomb, a more powerful explosive than an atomic bomb. The clock advances from three to two minutes to midnight.

The U.S. launches its first nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Nautilus. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles tells the Council of Foreign Relations the U.S. will protect its allies with “massive retaliatory power,” in what is believed to be the first statement in the doctrine of “mutually assured destruction.”

To push back against the growing influence of NATO, which was founded in 1949, the Soviet Union and several Eastern European countries formally sign the Warsaw Pact. Countries include Albania, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and the German Democratic Republic (East Germany).

Although it signed on to the Warsaw Pact, Hungary bristles under Soviet rule. A rebellion is quickly quelled by the Soviets.

The Space Race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union blasts off with the launch of the first Earth-orbiting satellite, Sputnik.

President Dwight Eisenhower signs the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958. NASA is intended to promote aeronautical research.

Then Vice President Richard Nixon and Soviet Union Premier Nikita Khrushchev engage in an impromptu debate, known as the “Kitchen Debate.” The two leaders have a lively back-and-forth on the merits of communism versus capitalism at a fair. In the same year, Fidel Castro comes to power in Cuba, an event which would have implications in later years.

Despite U-2 pilot Gary Powers being shot down and captured over the Soviet Union, the clock is set back from two to seven minutes to midnight. The Bulletin notes that there seems to be a change in humanity’s attitude to war and rule of force and that there seems to be an awakening of a world community. Specifically, there is “a change in the climate of our diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union … engendered by the personal contacts of the leaders of the great powers and their visits to different countries of the world.”

In 1958, Soviet Union Premier Nikita Khrushchev demanded the Western Powers leave Berlin. Despite ensuing diplomatic efforts, East Berlin Mayor Walter Ulbricht closes the border and erects the infamous Berlin Wall in August 1961.

The simmering Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union culminates in the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1962, the U.S. learns the Soviets had installed nuclear missiles in Cuba, an island 90 miles from our shores. President John F. Kennedy demands the Soviets remove the weapons, and the U.S. imposes a naval “quarantine” of Cuba. After a tense staredown, Khrushchev eventually agrees to remove the missiles.

After a decade of almost nonstop nuclear tests, the United States and Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, which ends all atmospheric nuclear testing. While it does not outlaw underground testing, the treaty represents progress in at least slowing the arms race, the Bulletin notes. The clock is moved further back from midnight, from seven to 12 minutes to midnight.

In August 1964, the North Vietnamese fire at two U.S. destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin. In response, Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, authorizing President Lyndon Johnson to retaliate, thereby setting the legal basis for the Vietnam War. Also that year, China tests its own atomic bomb.

In March, the Vietnam War intensifies with a U.S. and South Vietnamese-led bombing campaign against targets in North Vietnam. In November, U.S. and North Vietnamese forces engage in the first major battle of the war, the Battle of Ia Drang.

China’s Communist Leader Mao Zedong launches China’s Cultural Revolution to reassert the government’s control over the population. However, the legacy is one of hardship, with millions killed and imprisoned.

A break in the Cold War takes place in Glassboro, New Jersey, when President Lyndon Johnson and Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin meet to discuss relations between the two countries.

Across the globe, regional wars rage, and U.S. involvement in Vietnam intensifies. Tensions flare between North Korea and the U.S. after the communist state captures the USS Pueblo. Johnson declines to run again for president, and the Soviet Army crushes a revolt in Czechoslovakia. As it moves the clock forward, closer to midnight, the Bulletin laments, “There is a mass revulsion against war, yes; but no sign of conscious intellectual leadership in a rebellion against the deadly heritage of international anarchy.”

The Cold War takes a backseat to a human achievement. In July, Apollo II lands on the moon, a major accomplishment in the space race. The Bulletin again moves the clock back from midnight, from seven to 10 minutes to midnight.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons goes into effect.

The U.N. General Assembly officially recognizes the People’s Republic of China as a legitimate governing body.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moves the clock two minutes back from midnight, explaining: “The United States and Soviet Union attempt to curb the race for nuclear superiority by signing the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. The two treaties force a nuclear parity of sorts.”

This year, the U.S. officially exits the war in Vietnam, marked with the signing of the Paris Peace Accords.

The clock moves closer to midnight for the first time since 1968. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists explains: “South Asia gets the Bomb, as India tests its first nuclear device. And any gains in previous arms control agreements seem like a mirage. The United States and Soviet Union appear to be modernizing their nuclear forces, not reducing them.”

The Fall of Saigon officially ends the Vietnam War as North Vietnamese forces take over the capital city of South Vietnam.

Chinese leader Mao Zedong dies. He served as chairman or chief of state of the People’s Republic of China from 1949 to 1959 and chairman of the party until his death.

Newly elected President Jimmy Carter goes before the United Nations, outlining his policy of holding countries accountable for human rights.

In a deal brokered by President Carter, Israel and Egypt sign a peace treaty at Camp David. The Camp David Accords are the first such agreements between an Arab state and Israel.

The U.S. and Soviet Union sign the SALT II agreement to reduce the number of offensive weapons systems.

Despite some encouraging disarmament agreements, the U.S. and the USSR continue the arms race, acting, as the Bulletin describes, “as ‘nucleoholics’  — drunks who continue to insist that the drink being consumed is positively ‘the last one,’ but who can always find a good excuse for ‘just one more round’.” The Bulletin advances the clock two minutes closer to midnight. This is the beginning of the early 1980s heightened nuclear tension.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan hardens the U.S. nuclear posture. The rhetoric only intensifies with the election of Ronald Reagan, who scraps any talk of arms control and proposes that the best way to end the Cold War is for the United States to win it, as the Bulletin moves the clock three minutes closer to midnight.

Britain and Argentina fight over the Falkland Islands, a British territory off the coast of South America. In Moscow, Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev dies and is replaced by former KGB chief Yuri Andropov.

President Reagan proposes the “Star Wars” missile program in an effort to combat the Soviet’s nuclear power. The Strategic Defense Initiative is an anti-ballistic missile program designed to shoot down nuclear missiles in space.

U.S.-Soviet relations reach their iciest point in decades, with the U.S. flouting arms control agreements with its space-based anti-ballistic missile program. Dialogue between the two superpowers virtually stops. “Arms control negotiations have been reduced to a species of propaganda,” a concerned Bulletin informs readers as it advances the clock one minute closer to midnight.

Mikhail Gorbachev becomes head of the Soviet Union. He launches a new policy of “glasnost” or openness to freedom of expression.

In a sign of a thawing of the Cold War, Reagan and Gorbachev agree to remove all intermediate nuclear missiles from Europe in the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The INF Treaty would be signed the following year.

Standing before the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Reagan declares, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”

After the signing of the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the United States and Soviet Union agreed to ban a whole category of nuclear weapons. The leadership shown by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev makes the treaty a reality, but public opposition to U.S. nuclear weapons in Western Europe inspires it, the Bulletin notes as it moves back the clock three minutes away from midnight.

On Nov. 9, the Berlin Wall finally falls, as Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Rumania, and Poland break from their communist governments. East and West Germany would be reunited a year later.

“We are poised to bend the arc of history toward a world free of nuclear weapons,” is the Bulletin’s assessment as it moves the clock four more minutes back from midnight. Talks between Washington and Moscow for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, and more negotiations for further reductions in the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned.

With the Cold War officially over, the United States and Russia begin making deep cuts to their nuclear arsenals. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty greatly reduces the number of strategic nuclear weapons deployed by the two former world power adversaries. “The illusion that tens of thousands of nuclear weapons are a guarantor of national security has been stripped away,” the Bulletin declares as it moves the clock to its furthest position from midnight ever.

The breakup of Yugoslavia leads to the Bosnia War, a conflict between the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina,

In a firefight with rebels in Somalia, 18 U.S. soldiers die after their Black Hawk helicopters are shot down. The troops are sent to quell a rebellion within the country.

After years of apartheid, Nelson Mandela becomes the first Black president of South Africa.

Hopes for a post-Cold War peace and a renouncing of nuclear weapons fade as more than 40,000 nuclear weapons remain worldwide. Hardliners in the U.S. still see Russia as a threat. There is also concern that terrorists could exploit poorly secured nuclear facilities in the former Soviet Union, the Bulletin warns and moves the clock three minutes closer to midnight.

strong>1996

The Taliban, a militant Islamic group, first comes to power in Afghanistan.

After 99 years, Britain turns Hong Kong over to China. China agrees to maintain the city’s freedoms not permitted in the rest of the country.

India and Pakistan stage nuclear weapons tests only three weeks apart. “The tests are a symptom of the failure of the international community to fully commit itself to control the spread of nuclear weapons,” a dismayed Bulletin reports as it moves the clock five minutes closer to midnight. Russia and the United States still maintain 7,000 warheads ready to fire at each other within 15 minutes warning.

Boris Yeltsin, who had served as president of Russia since 1991, resigns and hands over power to Vladimir Putin.

Anticipation for the new millennium is high, but so are concerns about the Y2K bug, also called the Year 2000 bug, or the Millennium bug. The bug is expected to wreck computer programs as the year switches to 2000, but few problems actually result.

On Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers linked to terrorist group al-Qaeda fly planes into the both World Trade towers and the Pentagon. A fourth plane crashes in a Pennsylvania field. The killing of thousands of innocent civilians leads to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

After the 9/11 attacks, concerns mount regarding a nuclear attack with unsecured nuclear materials. The U.S. rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces it will withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, instead seeking to build new nuclear weapons, the Bulletin explains and moves the clock two minutes closer to midnight.

NASA’s space program takes a devastating blow when the space shuttle Columbia breaks up as it returns to Earth, killing all seven astronauts aboard. The disaster follows the 1986 Challenger catastrophe.

In Beijing, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority Zhang Huazhu commit to heightened cooperation on nuclear proliferation, security, and counterterrorism.

strong>2005

Hurricane Katrina slams into New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, causing 1,833 deaths and roughly $108 billion in damage (in 2005 dollars).

On Aug. 31, Iran refuses to halt its nuclear program, leading to the ongoing standoff between Iran and the U.S.

North Korea conducts a nuclear test as the U.S. and Russia remain ready to stage a nuclear attack within minutes. Meanwhile, the Bulletin warns for the first time that climate change presents a dire challenge to humanity and moves the clock two more minutes closer to midnight.

Barack Obama becomes the first Black American elected president of the U.S.

North Korea continues its march toward nuclear weapons with several underground nuclear tests.

“We are poised to bend the arc of history toward a world free of nuclear weapons,” is the Bulletin’s assessment as it moves the clock one minute away from midnight – the last time the position of the clock improved. Talks between Washington and Moscow for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, and more negotiations for further reductions in the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned.

Japan is hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami. The catastrophe causes a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

“The challenges to rid the world of nuclear weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from global warming are complex and interconnected,” the Bulletin stresses as it moves the clock one minute closer to midnight. The pace of technological solutions to address climate change may not be adequate to meet the hardships that large-scale disruption of the climate portends.

For the first time in 55 years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere exceeds 400 parts per million. It also may be the first time in 3 million years of Earth history that greenhouse gasses reached such a level.

The 2022 invasion of Russia into Ukraine was not the first in recent years. In 2014, Russia seized control of Crimea from Ukraine.

The Doomsday Clock moves two minutes closer to midnight as “unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity,” the Bulletin warns. Despite some modestly positive developments in the climate change arena, current efforts are entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic warming of Earth.

“Last year, the Science and Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward to three minutes to midnight, noting the probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon,” the Bulletin says in reiterating its position from 2015.

President Donald Trump withdraws the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, dealing a setback to global efforts on tackling climate change. The Bulletin moves the clock 30 seconds closer to midnight.

The Bulletin moves the clock another 30 seconds closer to midnight, saying, “the failure of world leaders to address the largest threats to humanity’s future is lamentable —but that failure can be reversed. They can seize the opportunity to make a safer and saner world.”

The Bulletin’s Science and Security Board refers to the current world security situation as a “new abnormal,” adding, “This new abnormal is a pernicious and dangerous departure from the time when the United States sought a leadership role in designing and supporting global agreements that advanced a safer and healthier planet.”

Another danger hovers over the planet. In early 2020, the WHO declares the spread of COVID-19 a pandemic. Schools turn to remote learning and most businesses shut down. More than 6.5 million would die of the disease in two and half years. The Bulletin moves the clock to its closest ever position to midnight, 100 seconds.

In one of his first acts in office, President Joe Biden announces plans to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement.

Russia President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, the first major battle on European soil after World War II. Putin turns up the heat by threatening the use of a nuclear bomb.