Special Report
The States Where Gun-Related Crimes Are Surging
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An estimated 1 in 3 American adults own at least one firearm. The most common reasons Americans cite for exercising their Second Amendment rights include personal protection, target shooting, and hunting. But with nearly 400 million civilian-owned firearms in circulation, some have inevitably fallen into the wrong hands, fueling a nationwide surge in gun violence. (Here is a look at the states where people buy the most guns.)
According to the FBI, active shooter incidents climbed by over 50% in 2021 compared to the previous year. Additionally, firearms were involved in over 234,500 violent crimes in 2021, a more than 30% increase from 2020.
Amid rising rates of gun violence, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives reported a spike in firearm trace requests from local, state, federal, and international law enforcement agencies. Guns that are traced by the ATF are typically those found at crime scenes and are that have either been used, or are suspected to have been used, to commit a crime.
The ATF traced more than 453,500 firearms in 2021, up from 389,300 in 2020 – and the increase is being driven by several states in particular.
Using gun tracing data from the ATF as a proxy for gun crime levels, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where gun crime is rising fastest. States are ranked by the percent change in the number of firearms traced from 2020 to 2021. In each of the 24 states on this list, the number of guns traced by the ATF increased by over 10%.
Nationwide, the most commonly traced firearms are chambered for 9mm, .40 caliber, and .22 caliber ammunition. In many of the states on this list, these chamberings also account for the largest share of trace requests.
These chamberings are among the most popular in the United States. Their availability – in addition to their concealability, as these chamberings are commonly found in handguns – likely explain their widespread use in crime. (Here is a look at the 50 most popular guns in the world).
Click here to see 24 states where gun-related crimes are surging.
Click here to read our detailed methodology.
24. Delaware
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +10.7%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 1,651 in 2021; 1,491 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (65.1% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (60.7% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -10.4%
> Firearm background checks: 69,068 in 2021, 77,057 in 2020
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23. New Jersey
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +11.5%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 4,640 in 2021; 4,161 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (59.9% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (53.5% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: +25.6%
> Firearm background checks: 223,437 in 2021, 177,901 in 2020
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22. Alabama
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +11.8%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 8,797 in 2021; 7,868 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (64.0% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (58.7% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -12.8%
> Firearm background checks: 946,271 in 2021, 1,085,475 in 2020
21. Wyoming
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +13.4%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 288 in 2021; 254 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .22 cal, & .45 cal (52.8% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .22 cal, & .45 cal (57.1% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -7.4%
> Firearm background checks: 84,624 in 2021, 91,384 in 2020
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20. Minnesota
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +13.4%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 4,560 in 2021; 4,020 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (64.7% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (59.0% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -1.4%
> Firearm background checks: 945,299 in 2021, 958,391 in 2020
19. Kentucky
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +13.9%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 6,764 in 2021; 5,941 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (60.9% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (59.5% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: +15.5%
> Firearm background checks: 3,848,061 in 2021, 3,330,462 in 2020
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18. Indiana
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +14.0%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 10,316 in 2021; 9,049 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (65.1% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (60.4% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -6.2%
> Firearm background checks: 1,815,531 in 2021, 1,935,587 in 2020
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17. New Mexico
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +14.1%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 4,060 in 2021; 3,557 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (58.0% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .40 cal (56.6% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -5.5%
> Firearm background checks: 194,989 in 2021, 206,252 in 2020
16. South Carolina
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +14.7%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 10,661 in 2021; 9,295 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (64.6% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (61.2% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -8.6%
> Firearm background checks: 485,487 in 2021, 530,930 in 2020
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15. Kansas
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +16.7%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 4,273 in 2021; 3,661 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (61.8% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (59.8% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -7.8%
> Firearm background checks: 230,168 in 2021, 249,589 in 2020
14. Tennessee
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +18.2%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 15,337 in 2021; 12,970 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (63.3% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (61.0% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -2.1%
> Firearm background checks: 964,512 in 2021, 984,760 in 2020
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13. Texas
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +19.0%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 45,351 in 2021; 38,109 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (65.7% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (61.4% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -14.8%
> Firearm background checks: 1,980,753 in 2021, 2,325,281 in 2020
12. Wisconsin
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +19.2%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 7,021 in 2021; 5,892 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (68.4% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (64.5% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: +7.4%
> Firearm background checks: 785,856 in 2021, 731,618 in 2020
11. California
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +20.2%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 53,761 in 2021; 44,709 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (59.4% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (52.0% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -7.8%
> Firearm background checks: 1,476,073 in 2021, 1,601,054 in 2020
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10. North Carolina
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +20.8%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 22,918 in 2021; 18,973 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (60.0% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (56.0% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -12.2%
> Firearm background checks: 781,733 in 2021, 890,284 in 2020
9. Louisiana
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +24.1%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 13,702 in 2021; 11,041 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (62.2% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (60.5% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -6.8%
> Firearm background checks: 401,345 in 2021, 430,537 in 2020
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8. Ohio
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +25.8%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 20,723 in 2021; 16,472 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (68.9% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (65.9% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -12.8%
> Firearm background checks: 851,887 in 2021, 976,751 in 2020
7. Florida
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +27.3%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 34,331 in 2021; 26,966 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (62.6% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (61.1% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -10.5%
> Firearm background checks: 1,711,685 in 2021, 1,912,204 in 2020
6. Illinois
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +28.1%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 19,086 in 2021; 14,897 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .45 cal (68.5% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .45 cal (64.5% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: +13.7%
> Firearm background checks: 8,474,505 in 2021, 7,455,065 in 2020
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5. Connecticut
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +40.9%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 1,596 in 2021; 1,133 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (59.8% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (56.6% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: +26.5%
> Firearm background checks: 277,250 in 2021, 219,227 in 2020
4. New York
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +41.9%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 10,198 in 2021; 7,187 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .380 cal, & .22 cal (58.2% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .380 cal, & .22 cal (54.8% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -8.5%
> Firearm background checks: 464,575 in 2021, 507,940 in 2020
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3. Oklahoma
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +54.4%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 5,246 in 2021; 3,397 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (60.3% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (58.3% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -11.4%
> Firearm background checks: 416,514 in 2021, 470,286 in 2020
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2. Rhode Island
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +59.7%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 661 in 2021; 414 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (63.5% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .22 cal (58.0% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -26.2%
> Firearm background checks: 37,936 in 2021, 51,369 in 2020
1. Massachusetts
> 1-yr. change in guns traced by the ATF: +74.5%
> Guns traced by the ATF: 3,193 in 2021; 1,830 in 2020
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2021: 9mm, .22 cal, & .40 cal (59.8% of annual total)
> Most commonly traced firearms, 2020: 9mm, .40 cal, & .380 cal (59.8% of annual total)
> 1-yr. change in firearm background checks: -1.3%
> Firearm background checks: 259,248 in 2021, 262,583 in 2020
Methodology
To identify the states where gun crime is surging, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed gun tracing data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. States are ranked by the increase in the number of firearms traced by the ATF from 2020 to 2021. In each state on this list, gun tracings increased by over 10% year over year.
Guns that are traced by the ATF are typically those found at crime scenes and either have been used, or are suspected to have been used, to commit a crime. Though it is important to note that not all firearms used in a crime are traced. Data on the most commonly traced firearm calibers and chambers are also from the ATF.
We also reviewed data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, a proxy for gun sales, to reflect annual firearm sales and change in annual sales.
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