Special Report
This State Will Have the Highest Rate of New Cancer Cases by the End of 2023
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Ohio small-business owner Joe Wurzelbacher stepped into the national spotlight during the 2008 presidential election cycle when he became known as “Joe The Plumber,” appearing on national TV as a conservative activist and symbol of the struggling middle-class entrepreneurs Republicans said would be crippled by Barack Obama’s proposed tax policies.
On Aug. 27 of this year, the husband, veteran, and father of four died at 49 from pancreatic cancer, his death first announced as an update to an online fundraiser curated by friends of the family. Out of more than 200 known types of the disease that causes cells to grow uncontrollably, pancreatic cancer is one of the most dangerous because it’s difficult to identify in its early stages, when treatment would be most effective. (These will be the deadliest cancers in 2023.)
According to a data analysis from the National Program for Cancer Registries database, the rate of early-onset pancreatic cancer – that which affects those younger than 55 – is increasing. There’s better news about cancer in general, however: Fewer Americans are dying from it, thanks to factors including advances in treatment, an increase in early detection, and a drop in tobacco use.
About 1.95 million Americans across the 50 states are expected to be diagnosed with cancer by the end of this year, and their chances of survival are much higher than they used to be. In the mid-’70s the average cancer survival rate beyond five years from diagnosis was 49% – essentially a coin flip. As of 2018, that rate had risen to 68%. In 1990, 216 out of 100,000 Americans died from cancer. By 2020, the rate was 144.1 – a 33% decline.
The most common forms of the disease are prostate and female breast cancer, which make up between 14% and 22% of all cancer cases nationwide. Prostate cancer, along with thyroid and testis cancers and melanoma, have the highest five-year survival rates – between 94% and 98%. (The cancer that killed Wurzelbacher? The rate is just 12%.)
To identify the states that will have the highest rate of new cancer diagnoses by the end of 2023, 24/7 Tempo reviewed the estimated number of new cancer cases this year from the American Cancer Society’s Cancer Statistics Center. Each state’s population and percentage of adults who had health insurance in 2021 came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and are 5-year averages. (Here are the 21 states where the most people don’t have health insurance.)
Click here to see the states estimated to have the highest rate of new cancer cases by the year
50. Alaska
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 751
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 3,390
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (520 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 12.2% – #49 highest
> Population (2021): 735,951
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49. Utah
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 774
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 13,840
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (2,500 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 9.0% – #35 highest
> Population (2021): 3,231,370
48. Colorado
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 795
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 28,920
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (4,910 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.9% – #25 highest
> Population (2021): 5,723,176
47. California
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 854
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 192,770
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (32,020 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.2% – #1 highest
> Population (2021): 39,455,353
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46. Wyoming
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 867
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 3,170
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (690 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 11.7% – #50 highest
> Population (2021): 576,641
45. Texas
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 881
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 139,100
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (22,280 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 17.6% – #3 highest
> Population (2021): 28,862,581
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44. Virginia
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 882
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 47,100
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (7,810 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.9% – #12 highest
> Population (2021): 8,582,479
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43. Hawaii
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 894
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 8,460
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (1,480 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 4.0% – #42 highest
> Population (2021): 1,453,498
42. New Mexico
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 911
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 11,280
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (1,730 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 9.6% – #38 highest
> Population (2021): 2,109,366
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41. Maryland
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 914
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 35,200
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (5,980 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 6.0% – #20 highest
> Population (2021): 6,148,545
40. Washington
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 920
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 44,630
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (7,050 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 6.4% – #13 highest
> Population (2021): 7,617,364
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39. North Dakota
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 930
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 4,370
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (740 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.5% – #47 highest
> Population (2021): 773,344
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38. Nevada
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 943
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 17,370
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (2,620 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 11.3% – #33 highest
> Population (2021): 3,059,238
37. Illinois
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 947
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 74,580
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (11,530 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.0% – #6 highest
> Population (2021): 12,821,813
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36. Minnesota
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 955
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 34,380
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (5,220 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 4.6% – #21 highest
> Population (2021): 5,670,472
35. Kansas
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 957
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 16,840
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (2,680 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.9% – #34 highest
> Population (2021): 2,932,099
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34. Oregon
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 957
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 26,030
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (4,220 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 6.7% – #27 highest
> Population (2021): 4,207,177
33. Massachusetts
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 959
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 42,880
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (6,770 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 2.8% – #15 highest
> Population (2021): 6,991,852
32. New Jersey
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 968
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 56,150
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (9,460 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.6% – #11 highest
> Population (2021): 9,234,024
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31. Arizona
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 972
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 41,120
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (6,240 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 10.7% – #16 highest
> Population (2021): 7,079,203
30. Michigan
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 977
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 61,910
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (8,980 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.3% – #9 highest
> Population (2021): 10,062,512
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29. Georgia
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 980
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 61,170
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (9,440 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 13.1% – #10 highest
> Population (2021): 10,625,615
28. Nebraska
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 986
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 11,530
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (2,180 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.0% – #37 highest
> Population (2021): 1,951,480
27. South Dakota
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 995
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 5,340
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (1,040 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 9.6% – #46 highest
> Population (2021): 881,785
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26. Missouri
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 995
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 37,910
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (5,760 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 9.5% – #18 highest
> Population (2021): 6,141,534
25. Indiana
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 997
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 40,270
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (6,020 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.0% – #17 highest
> Population (2021): 6,751,340
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24. Idaho
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,000
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 10,810
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (1,700 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 10.2% – #39 highest
> Population (2021): 1,811,617
23. New York
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,006
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 123,810
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (20,390 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.3% – #4 highest
> Population (2021): 20,114,745
22. Wisconsin
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,006
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 37,640
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (5,800 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.5% – #19 highest
> Population (2021): 5,871,661
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21. Ohio
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,007
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 74,140
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (11,200 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 6.3% – #7 highest
> Population (2021): 11,769,923
20. Montana
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,008
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 7,100
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (1,370 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.6% – #44 highest
> Population (2021): 1,077,978
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19. Oklahoma
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,012
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 23,420
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (3,390 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 14.3% – #29 highest
> Population (2021): 3,948,136
18. Vermont
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,025
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 4,370
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (630 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 4.1% – #47 highest
> Population (2021): 641,637
17. Connecticut
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,025
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 23,480
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (3,990 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.2% – #28 highest
> Population (2021): 3,605,330
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16. Rhode Island
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,029
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 7,030
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (1,050 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 4.4% – #45 highest
> Population (2021): 1,091,949
15. Alabama
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,030
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 30,730
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (5,320 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 9.7% – #23 highest
> Population (2021): 4,997,675
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14. New Hampshire
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,038
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 9,580
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (1,410 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.9% – #41 highest
> Population (2021): 1,372,175
13. Iowa
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,040
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 20,460
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (2,970 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 4.9% – #30 highest
> Population (2021): 3,179,090
12. Tennessee
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,048
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 43,790
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (6,580 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 10.1% – #14 highest
> Population (2021): 6,859,497
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11. Arkansas
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,053
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 18,670
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (2,950 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.7% – #31 highest
> Population (2021): 3,006,309
10. Louisiana
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,058
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 28,580
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (4,970 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 8.3% – #26 highest
> Population (2021): 4,657,305
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9. Pennsylvania
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,063
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 88,450
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (13,210 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.6% – #5 highest
> Population (2021): 12,970,650
8. North Carolina
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,073
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 67,690
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Female breast (10,730 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 10.7% – #8 highest
> Population (2021): 10,367,022
7. Mississippi
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,077
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 18,210
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (2,830 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 12.1% – #32 highest
> Population (2021): 2,967,023
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6. South Carolina
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,088
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 33,890
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (5,770 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 10.5% – #22 highest
> Population (2021): 5,078,903
5. Maine
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,125
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 10,490
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (1,550 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 7.4% – #40 highest
> Population (2021): 1,357,046
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4. Kentucky
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,131
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 30,270
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (5,170 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.8% – #24 highest
> Population (2021): 4,494,141
3. West Virginia
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,141
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 12,840
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Lung & bronchus (2,170 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 6.4% – #36 highest
> Population (2021): 1,801,049
2. Delaware
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,151
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 7,240
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (1,330 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 5.8% – #43 highest
> Population (2021): 981,892
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1. Florida
> Estimated new cases per 100,000 people by end of 2023: 1,188
> Total estimated new cases by end of 2023: 162,410
> Cancer with most estimated new cases: Prostate (24,000 new cases)
> People without health insurance (2021): 12.6% – #2 highest
> Population (2021): 21,339,762
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