Special Report
States Where Gun Sales Fell The Most This Year, All 50 States Ranked
Published:
Firearm sales nationwide continue to cool down from pandemic highs — at least as estimated by firearm background checks. While the FBI conducted nearly 39.7 million firearm checks in 2020, the figure fell to 31.6 million checks in 2022 and to 27.1 million checks in the first 11 months of 2023. With few exceptions, firearm background checks fell in the large majority of states.
To identify the states where gun sales fell the most this year, 24/7 Wall St. used data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. We ranked the states based on the percent change in background checks reported between January and November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, listing them from the largest increase to the largest drop. To reach a more accurate approximation of gun sales, we adjusted background checks by excluding checks for such categories as pawn shop transactions, returns, rentals, and rechecks.
Nationwide, adjusted firearm background checks declined by 5.7% in the first 11 months of 2023 compared to the first 11 months of 2022. Background checks rose in only 10 states and declined in 40. In 25 states, background checks declined by more than the national average, including 11 in which checks declined by over 10%. (Also see, the most government registered guns in every state.)
Among the states with the largest declines in firearm background checks so far in 2023 are those with some of the lowest and some of the highest checks per capita. For example, in New York state, where adjusted firearm background checks fell by 13.2% in the first 11 months of 2023, there were nearly 329,000 checks so far this year, or 16.7 checks per 1,000 residents.
On the other hand in Tennessee, where background checks dropped by 14.8% in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period in 2022, there were over 636,000 checks so far this year, or 90.2 checks per 1,000 residents. (These are the 22 best selling guns bought online last year.)
Here are the states where gun sales fell the most this year, all 50 states ranked.
Methodology
To identify the states where gun sales are decreasing this year, 24/7 Wall St. used data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. We ranked the states based on the percent change in background checks reported between January and November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, listing from the largest increase to the largest drop. To reach a more accurate approximation of gun sales, we adjusted background checks by excluding checks for such categories as pawn shop transactions, returns, rentals, and rechecks.
Even after removing some types of checks that are clearly unrelated to a new firearm purchase, because every state has different laws in terms of when background checks are required and different accounting practices, background checks still only serve as a rough approximation of gun sales.
The most glaring example of this is Illinois, which alone accounted for about half of the background checks in the country after excluding the aforementioned categories. Illinois no longer breaks down background checks separately, but did from July 2016 through July 2021. During the four full years of data, an average of 9.2% of Illinois’s non-private sale or gun-specific permit checks were non-rechecks. We applied that average to the most recent state figures to estimate Illinois’ count. This was done only because Illinois is such a glaring example of inconsistency and because there was historical data to produce an estimate.
There are likely other states for which the background check figures listed are inflated or underestimated proxies for gun sales.
Population data came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates Program, and are for July of 2022, the most recent data available.
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