Every vote counts in American politics — but in certain parts of the country, a single vote can be far more important than in others. Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of states. In these so called swing or battleground states, the electorate is virtually an even split between likely Democratic and Republican voters.
In most presidential election cycles in recent decades, Democratic candidates can count on winning in places like California, Connecticut, New York, and Vermont, while other states, including Alabama, Indiana, Louisiana, and Wyoming are reliable Republican strongholds. This year’s presidential election between President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican, promises to be no different.
Which candidate garners the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidency in November will likely hinge on who can win in the most closely contested states. This election cycle, there are expected to be seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
With the exception of North Carolina, Biden won each of these states in 2020, and with them, the presidency. But while the same candidates are at the top of each major party’s ticket this year, voter sentiment in the battleground states appears to have shifted meaningfully since the last election.
Using February 2024 polling data from public opinion research company Morning Consult, 24/7 Wall St. compared voter perceptions of both Biden and Trump in each of the seven likely swing states. In each state, we reviewed popular opinion surveys on both the personal attributes and political abilities of Biden and Trump, as well as polling data measuring which candidate would win if the election were held today.
The results of these polls should be a wake up call for the Democratic Party. According to the survey, Trump has a commanding lead over the president in the two most important issues to voters in this election: the economy and immigration. Biden, meanwhile, leads in most swing states — but by decidedly lower margins — on other issues including abortion and American democracy. Notably, however, these issues top of mind for a far smaller share of voters. (Here is a look at the most partisan issues in American politics.)
While Biden could conceivably turn public sentiment back in his favor on immigration and the economy, public perception of his personal attributes will be harder to change. In every state on this list, at least 40% of voters see Biden as too old, while no more than 10% of swing state voters describe Trump as too old. The electorate in these states also generally view Trump as more mentally fit than Biden.
Although Biden has an advantage in some areas, swing states appear to have moved to the right since 2020. In every state on this list, Trump would defeat Biden by anywhere from 2 to 9 percentage points if the election were held today, according to Morning Consult. (Here is a look at Biden’s approval rating in each of the 50 states.)
Swing state voters on the personal attributes of Biden and Trump:
Arizona
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 7% Trump, 48% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 47% Trump, 26% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 46% Trump, 20% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 37% Trump, 39% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 44% Trump, 35% Biden
Georgia
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 10% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 44% Trump, 26% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 45% Trump, 20% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 37% Trump, 37% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 44% Trump, 34% Biden
Michigan
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 7% Trump, 46% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 41% Trump, 28% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 45% Trump, 20% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 35% Trump, 38% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 47% Trump, 33% Biden
Nevada
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 10% Trump, 45% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 43% Trump, 28% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 44% Trump, 21% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 37% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 37% Trump, 35% Biden
North Carolina
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 8% Trump, 45% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 44% Trump, 26% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 45% Trump, 19% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 37% Trump, 36% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 43% Trump, 33% Biden
Pennsylvania
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 10% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 44% Trump, 25% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 44% Trump, 18% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 39% Trump, 36% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 44% Trump, 36% Biden
Wisconsin
- Voters who say candidate is too old: 8% Trump, 40% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is mentally fit: 39% Trump, 24% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is in good health: 41% Trump, 18% Biden
- Voters who say candidate cares about someone like them: 31% Trump, 38% Biden
- Voters who say candidate is dangerous: 49% Trump, 31% Biden
Swing state voters on the ability of Biden and Trump to handle key issues:
Arizona
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 49% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 53% Trump, 36% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 52% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 36% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 39% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 40% Trump, 44% Biden
Georgia
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 49% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 53% Trump, 34% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 52% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 39% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 42% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 41% Trump, 43% Biden
Michigan
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 46% Trump, 44% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 50% Trump, 35% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 47% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 33% Trump, 45% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 37% Trump, 45% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 36% Trump, 44% Biden
Nevada
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 48% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 51% Trump, 34% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 55% Trump, 29% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 34% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 38% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 40% Trump, 40% Biden
North Carolina
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 50% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 52% Trump, 34% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 53% Trump, 30% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 38% Trump, 39% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 40% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 42% Trump, 41% Biden
Pennsylvania
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 49% Trump, 43% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 52% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 52% Trump, 33% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 34% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 41% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 41% Trump, 42% Biden
Wisconsin
- Voters’ candidate of choice if the election were today: 46% Trump, 42% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle the economy: 50% Trump, 32% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle immigration: 49% Trump, 32% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle abortion: 33% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle Social Security and Medicare: 37% Trump, 41% Biden
- Voters who trust candidate to best handle American democracy: 33% Trump, 42% Biden
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