Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state – either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration and natural population change resulting from births and deaths can cause significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.

Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities – which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax.

According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Florida’s population is projected to expand by 32.0% between 2020 and 2040 – an increase of 7,009,726 people. If the Cooper Center’s projections bear out, Florida’s ranking as the third most populous state will remain unchanged, also taking into account population changes in other states.

The projected change is in keeping with the trend of the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Florida climbed by 16.4%, or 3,075,947 people.

A full methodological explanation for how these projections were calculated can be found here.

 

Rank	Name	Projected 2020 to 2040 pop. change (%)	2020 population	2020 rank	2040 projected population	2040 rank
1	Texas	35.2	29,604,099	2	40,015,913	2
2	North Dakota	34.3	789,403	47	1,060,457	45
3	Utah	34.1	3,240,569	30	4,344,339	29
4	Florida	32.0	21,877,257	3	28,886,983	3
5	Colorado	31.7	5,843,359	20	7,692,907	17
6	Nevada	30.1	3,119,265	32	4,058,371	30
7	Washington	27.3	7,681,818	13	9,776,126	12
8	Arizona	26.1	7,268,694	14	9,166,279	14
9	Idaho	25.4	1,777,249	39	2,227,842	36
10	South Carolina	22.5	5,184,564	23	6,352,502	22
11	Oregon	21.0	4,267,534	27	5,164,041	24
12	North Carolina	19.8	10,568,033	9	12,658,927	7
13	Georgia	19.5	10,725,351	8	12,820,271	5
14	Delaware	17.9	987,393	45	1,164,344	44
15	South Dakota	17.0	891,688	46	1,043,032	47
16	Montana	15.0	1,074,635	43	1,236,304	43
17	California	14.9	40,438,640	1	46,467,001	1
18	Virginia	14.1	8,655,021	12	9,876,728	11
19	Tennessee	14.0	6,861,856	16	7,823,662	15
20	Minnesota	12.0	5,683,666	22	6,364,886	20
21	Nebraska	12.0	1,956,876	37	2,190,918	37
22	Hawaii	11.4	1,453,902	40	1,619,703	40
23	Maryland	11.1	6,161,345	19	6,842,902	19
24	Oklahoma	10.9	4,001,180	28	4,439,038	28
25	Massachusetts	10.9	6,982,092	15	7,742,628	16
26	Alaska	9.1	751,328	48	819,954	48
27	Louisiana	6.7	4,742,900	25	5,062,780	25
28	Iowa	6.5	3,184,240	31	3,392,783	32
29	Arkansas	5.9	3,038,491	33	3,217,535	33
30	Indiana	5.3	6,737,581	17	7,095,000	18
31	Wyoming	5.2	585,380	50	615,787	49
32	Kentucky	4.8	4,498,533	26	4,714,761	27
33	New York	4.2	20,031,150	4	20,873,488	4
34	New Jersey	4.2	9,088,074	11	9,470,012	13
35	Kansas	3.3	2,936,212	35	3,032,653	34
36	Missouri	3.2	6,161,471	18	6,359,970	21
37	New Hampshire	3.0	1,352,917	41	1,393,451	41
38	Alabama	3.0	4,911,278	24	5,056,796	26
39	Wisconsin	2.7	5,837,176	21	5,997,137	23
40	New Mexico	1.3	2,099,134	36	2,127,318	38
41	Ohio	0.4	11,705,262	7	11,751,540	9
42	Pennsylvania	-0.3	12,844,885	5	12,809,150	6
43	Michigan	-0.3	9,992,315	10	9,960,115	10
44	Rhode Island	-0.7	1,062,334	44	1,055,318	46
45	Maine	-0.9	1,338,780	42	1,326,159	42
46	Mississippi	-0.9	2,990,498	34	2,962,160	35
47	Connecticut	-1.4	3,593,542	29	3,542,707	31
48	Illinois	-3.1	12,791,188	6	12,397,564	8
49	Vermont	-3.4	622,868	49	601,865	50
50	West Virginia	-7.8	1,801,966	38	1,661,849	39

 

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