Technology

The Bullish and Bearish Case for Intel in 2014, Qualcomm and AMD Hover

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) ended up having a solid 2013 stock performance despite its ongoing pressures. The processor and chip giant had a total return of about 29.7%, slightly outpacing the 29.6% gain of the S&P 500 and beating the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain of 26.5%. 24/7 Wall St. has generated a bullish and bearish scenario for 2014 in each stock of the Dow, including Intel.

There are many macroeconomic and industry specific factors to consider. Most Wall Street strategists are expecting another year of gains in 2014. That should help most stocks rise. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing plan is expected to come with higher interest rates as well. European and Asian economies are exiting their recessions at the same time that U.S. gross domestic product is expected to tick up.

The outlook for Intel is one that investors should closely monitor in 2014. Its gain in 2013 was almost 30%, despite woes in the PC market and despite the industry demand being in smartphones and tablets rather than in PCs. Intel’s current dividend yield for 2014 is right at 3.5%. After closing out the year at $25.95, the stock pulled back slightly to almost $25.50 in the first few trading days of 2014. Intel’s consensus analyst price target is actually lower at $24.50, and the 52-week trading range is $20.10 to $26.04.

One issue to consider about the continued market gains at the end of the year is that Intel added almost 9% in the final month, for a total of almost 14% stock gains in the past quarter. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) may be getting a new CEO, but the mobile chip maker will be an ongoing threat to Intel. In fact, it may even be impossible to analyze Intel without first evaluating what is going on at Qualcomm.

The bullish case for Intel is that it is finally making its entrance into smartphones and PCs. Intel is also starting to act as a fabricator for other semiconductor companies that want to use its excess capacity and technological prowess. Intel also has that mammoth 3.5% dividend yield. Another strength is that sales have not slid handily despite the sea change happening in its markets. Some may consider the PC market a dead one, but Intel has a mega-share of this market, with Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) being way back in the rear-view mirror.

The bearish scenario for Intel is that rival Qualcomm has been eating Intel’s lunch. Even with Intel coming online in mobile, there is no assurance that Intel will dominate in the future. Intel also lost out against AMD in the latest video game console processor in the PlayStation and Xbox cycle upgrades. And many industry experts believe that some consumers simply will not spend way up to buy an old-school PC every again. A recent report even pointed to weaker PC trends in the March quarter.

The valuation analysis is close on earnings, but Intel’s $126 billion market value and Qualcomm’s $122 billion market value become harder to fathom when you consider that Intel is almost twice as large in revenues. Can Intel capture some of Qualcomm’s magic in mobility?

Intel is caught between a rock and a hard place as far as investors are concerned. Its core markets are discounted too much by analysts and investors. The consensus price target for 2014 is also handily below the current share price, with a drop of more than 5% expected in 2014. The flip side is that Intel’s transformation is in the opening rounds, and we outlined previously that Intel could be a stealth value stock worth closer to $30 ahead. Barron’s wrote in 2013 that the valuation could be much higher than $30.

 

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