Companies that sell hardware devices and the software that powers them can expect their total market to rise substantially this year. However, not every company will benefit as the battle for share continues to rage.

According to Gartner:

Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.5 billion units in 2014, a 7.6 percent increase from 2013, according to Gartner, Inc. Among the operating system (OS) market, Android is on pace to surpass one billion users across all devices in 2014. By 2017, over 75 percent of Android’s volumes will come from emerging markets.

And:

Mobile phones are expected to dominate overall device shipments, with 1.9 billion mobile phones shipped in 2014, a five percent increase from 2013. Ultramobiles, which include tablets, hybrids and clamshells, will take over as the main driver of growth in the devices market from 2014, with a growth rate of 54 percent.

As has been the case in the recent past, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) can expect to benefit most from the trend. Shipments of devices that run on iOS or Mac OS will rise from 344 million this year to 397 million in 2015. Anyone worried about the fate of Apple can take cheer in the forecast. The success of the iPhone and iPad will trump concerns about their slow demise. Because Apple is believed to make the highest margins on its portable devices, its profits should keep besting those of competition.

While the size of Google’s Android OS deployment will be better than any of its competitors, most observers continue to wonder about the direct benefit to the search company, unless it is to help move Google’s core advertising product to portable devices. Android device shipments should improve from 1.1 billion this year to 1.25 billion in 2015. That should be a sign that the largest users of Android in their devices, particularly Samsung, will continue to do well.

There is no reason to assume that market share equals earnings, which erodes the value of the Gartner data. Without some indication of the economic value of operating systems, the analysis is incomplete.

Worldwide Device Shipments by Operating System (Thousands of Units)

Operating System	2012	2013	2014	2015
Android	503,690	877,885	1,102,572	1,254,367
Windows	346,272	327,956	359,855	422,726
iOS/Mac OS	213,690	266,769	344,206	397,234
RIM	34,581	24,019	15,416	10,597
Chrome	185	1,841	4,793	8,000
Others	1,117,905	801,932	647,572	528,755
Total	2,216,322	2,300,402	2,474,414	2,621,678

Source: Gartner (December 2013)

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