According to new research, PC shipments will fall 6% in 2014, and the decline will continue through 2018. The “death of the PC” may be an exaggeration. However, companies that rely on PC sales will continue to be troubled.

In a new report, research firm IDC said it expects PC shipments to fall by 6% in 2014 and decline through 2018.

The drop in emerging markets will be from 182 million sales last year to 172 million in 2018. In mature markets, the number is forecast to drop from 133 million to 120 million over the same period.

Worldwide, desktop sales are expected to fall from 137 million to 119 million from 2013 to 2018. Portable sales are expected to fall from 178 million to 123 million. In sum, all PC sales are expected to drop from 315 million to 291 million over that period.

Any hope that emerging markets might help global PC sales has been lost for the time being:

“Emerging markets used to be a core driver of the PC market, as rising penetration among large populations boosted overall growth,” said Loren Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers. “At the moment, however, we’re seeing emerging regions more affected by a weak economic environment as well as significant shifts in technology buying priorities. We do expect these regions to recover in the medium term and perform better than mature regions, but growth is expected to stabilize near zero percent, rather than driving increasing volumes as we saw in the past.”

Many forecasters believe that the smartphone will eventually kill the PC. That has not happened so far, but the IDC data indicate the process is well underway.

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2013 – 2018 (Shipments in millions)

Region	Form Factor	2013	2014*	2018*
Emerging Markets	Desktop PC	85.6	80.5	77.2
Emerging Markets	Portable PC	96.2	87.2	94.5
Emerging Markets	Total PC	181.9	167.7	171.7
Mature Markets	Desktop PC	51.1	48.6	42.0
Mature Markets	Portable PC	82.2	79.6	77.9
Mature Markets	Total PC	133.3	128.2	120.0
Worldwide	Desktop PC	136.7	129.1	119.2
Worldwide	Portable PC	178.4	166.8	172.5
Worldwide	Total PC	315.1	295.9	291.7

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, February 2014

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