Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is on deck to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday. This company can greatly influence how its peers in networking and communications equipment are treated ahead, and Cisco is also a Dow Jones Industrial Average component.

Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.48 in earnings per share (EPS) for this past quarter, down from $0.51 a year ago. Revenues are expected to be down almost 7% to $11.38 billion. For the coming quarter, Cisco’s estimates are $0.51 EPS (versus $0.52 a year earlier) and for revenues to be down 5% to $11.77 billion.

Cisco’s real problem is that it has had a hell of a time growing. That is even with the billions upon billions spent in acquisitions. Revenues for this year are not expected to be much more than the $46.06 billion from back in 2012. And revenues in 2015 are expected to be $48.2 billion, down slightly from the $48.6 billion recorded in 2013.

The big question that no one asks any longer is whether CEO John Chambers plans to hang around much longer. We think a transition time is coming ever closer, and we would point out that Chambers has been CEO for longer than just about any major technology chief executive among the S&P 500 — sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

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So, what are analysts thinking? It is trading near $22.86, and the consensus price target is just under $24. If Credit Suisse’s analyst Kulbinder Garcha is right, investors could be in for another weak quarter. Garcha just this week reiterated his Underperform rating and downside price target of $20. Garcha said:

Cisco will be challenged by product transitions in switching and routing, set-top boxes, weakness in emerging markets and broadly, the emergence of SDN will pressure industry gross profit dollars over time. While Cisco has materially lowered estimates, recent results have indicated a mixed IT spending environment, which creates continued headwinds for the company.

Another concern in the Garcha note was that gross margin issues would remain, in part from aggressive pricing approach during the current product transition. Product gross margin hit new lows of 58.8% last quarter, and the estimates are closer 62% ahead.

The good news is that Cisco’s yield is 3.3% now, and the company continues to endlessly buy back stock. Its 52-week trading range is $20.22 to $26.49. Cisco’s chart is at a critical junction. Its 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging. Trading at $22.86 ahead of earnings, its 50-day moving average is $22.49 and the 200-day moving average is $22.50. The chart shows resistance up around $23.50 and support down around $22.50.

Oddly enough, Cisco shares are right back where they were last quarter. The February 12 closing bell price ahead of the last earnings report was $22.85, before taking dividends into account.

This could be a make or break quarter for Cisco, and maybe for John Chambers.

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