Alibaba Likely to Dominate Q2 Earnings From Yahoo! (Updated)

Please note that this report has been updated to include WhisperNumber.com forecasting (see blow).

UPDATE: Also, here is the post-preview earnings report from Yahoo! that includes the after-hours reaction.

What is obvious is that all eyes will be focused on Yahoo’s external gains from the Alibaba IPO. After that, investors will probably digest the internal metrics of the company and they will decide whether Mayer’s string of more hip acquisitions will lead to revenue growth ahead. We also will be paying attention to how its relationship is going with Microsoft, now that Satya Nadella is fully in control of the company.

Estimates are $0.38 earnings per share (EPS), or up three cents from last year, and revenue growth of 1.2% to $1.08 billion. While Yahoo has more than doubled under Marissa Mayer’s tenure, the stock is actually down over 11% so far in 2014. Next quarter estimates are $0.40 EPS and $1.1 billion in revenue.

On a longer-term basis, from Thomson Reuters consensus data, Yahoo is expected to grow revenue 1.7% to $4.5 billion in 2014 and then grow revenue 3.2% more to $4.65 billion in 2015.

Trading at $35.35, its consensus price target is up at $41.12. Note that Yahoo’s chart pattern currently has the stock wedged between its longer-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average is below at $34.89, and the 200-day moving average is up above at $36.21.

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Updated information has been provided to us by WhisperNumber.com:  The Yahoo! whisper number is $0.37, one cent behind the analysts’ estimate and showing little confidence from investors. Whispers range from a low of $0.25 to a high of $0.45. Yahoo! has a 62% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 39 of the 63 earnings reports for which we have data). The overall average price move is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.