Technology

Can Micron Keep Up With Earnings in Its Turnaround and Expansion?

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is set to report earnings on Thursday after the market closes. Over the past couple of years, the company and its stock have experienced phenomenal growth. The question that investors need to ask now is whether that growth rate and expected slower growth will be enough to maintain an exponential stock rally we have seen since the end of 2012.

Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates for the quarter of $0.81 in earnings per share and $4.15 billion in revenues. This would compare to the same quarter for the previous year’s reading of $0.20 in earnings per share and $2.84 billion in revenues. Estimates for the following quarter are $0.85 in earnings per share and $4.36 billion in revenues.

Year over year, from fiscal year 2013 to fiscal year 2014, we have seen a giant leap in sales growth. Consensus estimates put this growth in the neighborhood of almost 80%. This growth is mainly due to the acquisition of Elpida in 2013, which skyrocketed revenues and opened Micron up to new markets.

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Looking ahead to the 2015 fiscal year, consensus estimates only predict sales growth of roughly 8% from this current year. 24/7 Wall St. cannot help but wonder how the investment community will digest this trend. Sure, it is expected and that is what should be priced in. The problem is that turnaround stories and hyper-growth deals that then see slowing trends often make some investors trade around a stock as though the best is behind it.

Micron has seen its shares rise and fall in the weeks ahead of the report. The semiconductor industry can be very volatile, particularly around earnings and forecasts. Micron’s stock has been stuck in a trading range of $30 to $33 for most of the past month. Its 50-day moving average has also been a magnet since the start of August, and that 50-day moving average is currently at $32.08. The stock’s 200-day moving average is all the way down a $27.30, proof of how much it has risen over the last year.

UPDATED: Micron shares were up 2.4% at $31.96 in mid-afternoon trading on Wednesday, with more than 24-hours until earnings. The consensus price target is $38.86, and the 52-week range is $16.17 to $34.85. It has a market cap of roughly $34 billion.

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Looking forward, the stock is trading at roughly nine times next year’s expected earnings per share. Keep in mind that the last report was one in which we asked if Micron was priced for too much perfection. Its consensus price target may be $38.86, but the highest analyst price target is now up at $50.00 — and more than one analyst shares that $50 price target prediction. Prior to that, Micron shares were up 300% in 18 months.

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