Technology

Symantec Breakup Analysis: Are Two Dogs Better Than One Dog?

Reports that Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) is considering a split-up into two companies have created a stir on Wednesday. It seems that the split would turn the current Symantec back into the old data security play that it was and would move Veritas back out of the company.

If you can trust one thing to be true on Wall Street, it is that corporate strategies will change on a dime and then one decade later (or less) the new logic is that there is more value by breaking the companies back up.

Would the maker of the Norton anti-virus software really undo a decade of work? After terminating CEO Steve Bennett earlier this year, and now that John Thompson is long gone as well, anything is possible. The question from 24/7 Wall St. is simple enough: Are two dogs are better than one?

A firm called Summit Research has shown the potential split in a good light. Investors might want to reconsider that outside of the short term. Let’s take a walk in history here. First off, Symantec now has a market cap of $16.2 billion. Go all the way back 10 years to the end of 2004, and Symantec agreed to acquire Veritas Software for its data storage and management solutions for some $13.5 billion. Symantec would own roughly 60% of the combined company.

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Symantec shares were close to $28 at the time and had just challenged $30. This stock had risen in a straight line, rising from about $5 in 2002 to $30 at the end of 2004, if you adjust for stock splits. For those who witnessed this merger live at the time, one recollection stood out after Symantec’s shares cratered on the M&A news: Symantec had broken its uptrending chart.

The stock went in short order down to under $20, and in the years following the debacle investors made money hand over fist buying when Symantec got close to $15 and selling each time got back near $20.

Now take history forward, and the new trading range seems to be $20 to $25. Symantec’s market cap is now $16.2 billion. Despite the growth of storage and despite the need for data security, Symantec never recovered to where it was before the Veritas deal was announced.

So, is now the time to break these up again? Based on the poor results, it simply seems like this will be creating two weak companies rather than one weak company made up of two weak units.

This breakup is a bit like a personal analogy of work camp prisoners busting up rocks all day. The prisoners ask why they are busting up rocks and are told that the smaller rocks will be used to make concrete. When they ask what the concrete will be used for, they are told that it will make more rocks.

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Investors can hope that this works. Unfortunately, Symantec alone or a move back to the old Symantec and the old Veritas may have the same result. Symantec’s stock was up 1.5% at $23.55 on Wednesday afternoon, against a 52-week range of $17.95 to $25.60 and against a consensus analyst price target of $24.25.

 

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