Technology

Analysts Take Very Mixed View of Sudden AMD CEO Change

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) has not handled very well to the sudden and unexpected news that Rory Read is stepping down as chief executive of AMD. While the replacement by Dr. Lisa Su was called a succession plan, the SEC filing showed that Read and Su were both still in negotiations over their packages. The long and short of the matter is that this means the succession likely came to a head rather quickly. The company made a slightly different case.

It turns out that we are not the only ones questioning the timing. Analysts have chimed in on Read’s departure and Su being appointed as CEO. For whatever it is worth, AMD shares were challenging $3.00 premarket, and the stock hit a new 52-week low of $2.97 after the open on Thursday. Stocks hitting 52-week lows are not exactly ringing endorsements.

24/7 Wall St. has received several analyst reports opining on the transition. One of the very negative calls was from Wedbush Securities, which downgraded AMD to Neutral from Outperform and slashed the price target to $3 from $6 in that call. Wedbush also removed AMD from its key Best Ideas List. So, outside of that downgrade, there are several other mixed analyst reports covering the new AMD.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the new CEO is good choice, but the firm said it is questionable timing. Merrill Lynch has an Underperform rating on AMD, but it maintained a $4.00 price objective. The report said:

AMD abruptly announced the promotion of its current COO Lisa Su to the role of President and CEO, replacing Rory Read who had been in the CEO role for only ~3 years. We view Dr. Su’s selection very positively and believe she is immensely capable in products, technology and execution. However we question the timing of the announcement, just a week prior to Q3 earnings call and can only assume it potentially presages weak results/guidance and possibly indicates further restructuring/asset divesture actions in the core PC/graphics business that accounts for ~70% of sales. Note AMD did not update financial guidance on the CEO transition call. We maintain Underperform on AMD and highlight incremental positive for rivals Intel and Nvidia. … Until we see Q3 results/Q4 guide, it’s hard to call for a possible near-term bottom in the stock. However, we do positively note the company’s strong actions to shore up its balance sheet and cash position could provide some support to the stock.

Canaccord Genuity has a Buy rating and a $4.50 price target on AMD. The firm said that there is long-term value but noted that headwinds remain during this transition. Canaccord further anticipates PC-exposure of less than 50% by the fourth quarter of 2015 as gaming and embedded sales increase. Still, it noted that AMD is significantly underexposed to the recent enterprise PC strength and Intel is adding pressure.

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Canaccord Genuity’s note said that investor questions regarding timing of this announcement were not fully answered on the management call, which means that the uncertainty could make shares volatile into quarterly results reported next Thursday. The firm also said that it believes this leadership transition has been planned for some time. Canaccord lowered 2014 and 2015 operating earnings estimates from $0.16 and $0.28 down to $0.14 and $0.25, respectively. The firm’s $4.50 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 18 times its 2015 non-GAAP EPS estimate.

Canaccord Genuity’s Mattew Ramsey said:

AMD’s Board named COO Dr. Lisa Su as the company’s new President and CEO, effective immediately. Former CEO Rory Read will remain a company advisor through the end of the year. We maintain our belief that AMD’s diversification strategy remains on track and positions the company to drive gradual long-term, top-line growth and sustained profitability. However, an underexposure to recent enterprise PC strength, Intel’s renewed focus on entry-level consumer sockets, and crypto-currency GPU headwinds remain near-term challenges. Turnarounds take time, but we believe Dr. Su is the right leader to continue the strategy. Her first hurdle is to deliver new semi-custom wins promised by year end. We take this opportunity to lower near-term PC estimates, but reiterate our BUY rating as we believe AMD’s new strategy will deliver long-term value.

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Wells Fargo has also reiterated its Outperform rating on AMD and also maintained its super-high value range of $5 to $7. The firm’s David Wong led the report.

Wong’s take from the conference call was that AMD indicated this transition is something that has been under discussion internally for some time and that this was not a result of any special recent events. Wong also noted that Read implemented many changes in the past three years, but he also said that the next logical and organic step would be to bring Su in as CEO so that she can begin enacting the third transformation phase of AMD’s strategy. Read even noted that a portion of his time as CEO was devoted to grooming Su so that this transition would be as smooth as possible.

Wells Fargo’s David Wong said:

We think that AMD has made significant progress in the last few years in stabilizing its finances and developing a long term product strategy. We expect that the company will be able to continue on its trajectory of establishing revenue growth and consistent profitability. … We expect that the game console business will remain a high visibility source of profitable revenue for AMD over the next several years. … Our valuation range is based on approximately 0.6 to 0.9x our 2014 Sales estimate. We think this multiple range is reasonable given AMD’s current low profitability. Company-specific risks include the possibility of market-share losses, a potential inability to keep pace with Intel on microprocessor innovation, potential delays in manufacturing transitions or new product introductions, and a weak balance sheet. Sector risks include the possibility of decelerating PC growth in the current economic environment.

Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer called AMD’s announcement a “Questionable Timing of CEO Transition” and he maintained his Underperform rating. Shafer said:

On the surface, we believe Dr. Su’s semiconductor pedigree makes her a logical successor to Mr. Read, but the timing of the announcement, eight days before the company is scheduled to report its 3Q earnings, the lack of finalized compensation packages, and absence of guidance reaffirmation leave more questions than answers. We now must look to AMD’s 10/16 earnings announcement for financial updates, but believe any material upside to current Street estimates is unlikely. … Despite a changing of the guard, we continue to see de minimis top-line growth and virtually no FCF-generation ability near term. With looming balance sheet concerns, little/no earnings power and limited valuation support, we’d remain sellers here.

One last issue we would address is that AMD short interest has remained very high, even if it has been lower for three straight short interest reports. The mid-September short interest of 129.25 million shares was down from the prior sequential reports of 130.05 million shares, 139.9 million shares and a peak of 153.2 million shares.

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As far as AMD’s shares, the stock briefly broke under $3.00 and hit a new 52-week low of $2.97 right after the opening bell on Thursday. In the first 35 minutes of trading, we had already seen some 17 million shares trade hands against an average day’s volume of 29.5 million. The stock was down 6.4% at $3.07, and the consensus analyst price target was still above $4.00 as of Thursday.

 

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