Technology
Oppenheimer Switches to Favorable View on Apple, Without Mentioning Carl Icahn
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was transferred for analyst coverage at Oppenheimer right at the start of September. The firm only decided to initiate coverage with a Perform rating then, but in just over a month Oppenheimer has decided to upgrade Apple shares to Outperform. This is of course on the same day that Carl Icahn issued his open letter to Tim Cook — but Icahn is not mentioned a single time in the analyst upgrade report.
Oppenheimer has assigned a $115 price target along with its Outperform rating in the call. The Thomson Reuters consensus price target for Apple is $111.86 and the street-high analyst price target is $139.
Thursday’s analyst report was from Andrew Uerkwitz and Martin Ying and was titled “Entering a New Cycle.” The analysts also raised estimates based on the iPhone 6 models being far and away the most successful phone launch to date, with excellent sales prospects well into 2015. The firm simply expects a shorter replacement cycle and expects Apple to keep investor interests high when Apple Pay and Apple Watch piggyback on the iPhone’s success. That being said, the earnings contribution from Apple Pay and the Apple Watch are expected initially to be minimal.
The analyst call raised fourth-quarter 2014 and fiscal 2015 revenues and earnings above the Wall Street consensus. Its 2015 projection for iPhone revenues is at $121.7 billion, versus a consensus estimate of $114.1 billion.
The report said:
We believe iPhone 6 and 6 Plus combined will be the best selling iPhone generation to-date as iOS 8 and larger displays draw much broader consumer appeal than before — ultimately growing Apple’s market share. … We believe iPhone 6 and iOS 8 will bring important features to Apple’s overall ecosystem that increases user stickiness: 1) Apple Pay, 2) HealthKit and Health App, and 3) integration between OS X and iOS, and 4) HomeKit. We believe these will drive market share gains.
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Oppenheimer did hedge the report with risks, which most detailed reports do. They see the risks to their thesis being a heavy dependence on iPhone, uncertainties with regulatory oversight and political risks in emerging markets, and headline risks from a potentially disappointing Apple Watch initial launch.
The report ends:
We believe we are in a new up-cycle for Apple with new devices and revamped interfaces. We expect the stronger-than-ever iPhone sales to enable Apple to deliver “beat-and-raise” quarters into the first half of calendar 2015. Our new price target of $115 is based on 12.5-times fiscal 2015 earnings per share of $7.31 plus $23 of net cash per share.
Our take on the early September coverage with only a Perform rating was as follows:
Oppenheimer has transferred analyst coverage and has predicted that the iPhone 6 will be the best iPhone to date. Features are expected to include an upgraded iOS 8, a larger display and a sharper camera. Some Apple fanatics have gone as far to say that this new iPhone will be a true “game changer.”
What stood out was that Apple was only given a Perform rating with at least some caution included in the positive commentary. Oppenheimer did not give a price target, but it expects earnings per share to grow by 15% over the next three to five years.
Oppenheimer now only expects the company to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12 to 18 months. This is also considering the release of the iPhone 6 and the fanfare that comes from it.
ALSO READ: Carl Icahn Says True Value of Apple Share Is $203 — in Over 4,500 Words
The long and short of the matter is that anyone has the right to change their formal views. That is what has happened in the Apple coverage of Oppenheimer. Apple shares were up by 1.2% at $102.05 in late morning trading on Thursday. The 52-week range is $69.31 to $103.74.
Now just keep in mind that Apple’s market cap is a whopping $611 billion.
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