Technology

Why Analysts and Investors Are Loving Intel Again (and Should in 2015)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) hosted its analysts day and brought big cheers, in part on solid guidance, but mostly due to the unexpected dividend hike. Intel is still underloved on Wall Street, but 24/7 Wall St. sees more and more analysts getting on board as the mobile-only emphasis begins to take a back seat. Intel is now the top-performing Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock of 2014, with gains above 41%, so investors and analysts simply will not be able to keep ignoring the largest processor company in the world.

24/7 Wall St. had initially prepared notes for this article after the analysts day for a weekend story, only to see that Barron’s wrote that it is calling for another 30% upside — rising to $48 in the next two years. Again, Intel is still underloved on Wall Street because everyone was thinking (or still do think) that the only game in town is mobile computing via smartphones and tablets — where Intel has greatly lagged, and where it will lose money in 2015 as it ramps up. So, here are the driving forces and views behind what is creating a more favorable view of Intel.

Outside of an unexpected dividend hike, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) dropping support of Windows XP was a huge driver that reset demand trends for 2014. The old WinTel alliance had not been worth much of late, but Microsoft’s departure from supporting XP drove enterprise spending for the Windows 7 operating system, which also created the demand for much higher processors and more powerful PCs.

In addition, Intel’s new adjusted 2.7% dividend yield will put it back in the upper half of DJIA dividend yields. It also will be a very high dividend yield for a technology giant, with a yield ranking of about number 15 out of the 70 tech stocks in the S&P 500.

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Intel offered 2015 guidance at its analysts day for revenues to grow in the mid-single-digit range, with gross margin of 62% (±2%), and R&D plus MG&A spending as a percentage of revenue is expected to fall with spending of around $20 billion (±$400 million). Capital spending in 2015 is expected to be $10.5 billion (±$500 million). The dividend hike was the big surprise because as recently as 2013, and even in early 2014, some reports had said Intel may still be unable to raise that payout.

The Barron’s report was based on the notion that Intel is only halfway through a five-year doubling process and trades at a 7% discount to the S&P 500. Barron’s feels that the stock is still unpopular and will start to win more favorable ratings.

Here are several short analyst calls: FBR Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating but raised its target to $40 from $36. J.P. Morgan predicted that Intel will exit next year with $3.00 in share of earnings in sight. Stifel has a Buy rating, but it raised its target price to $39 from $36 after the meeting. Bank of America Merrill Lynch reiterated its Buy rating ahead of the analysts day, along with a $43 price target.

Even the less aggressive firms have increased their views. RBC Capital Markets has only a Sector Perform rating, but it raised its price target to $38 from $35. Cowen has a Market Perform rating but raised its target price to $36 from $34.

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Wells Fargo has an Outperform rating on Intel, but it also a Top Pick of the firm, with a valuation range of $36.00 to $43.00. The firm sees continued growth and said:

Intel’s strategy includes a commitment to driving manufacturing technology leadership and remaining in the PC processor market, expanding growth in data center platforms and moving into complementary markets (i.e. Internet of Things). … We think Intel’s competitive strength and technology leadership will drive revenue, profitability and share value over the next several years. … We think that Intel’s manufacturing advantage is an important differentiating factor competitively for Intel’s server, PC and mobile processors, and we think that it also provides a compelling reason for major companies to consider using Intel as a foundry. … and we expect that ramping 4G sales and alliances with companies such as Spreadtrum in China will help Intel grow its modem/smartphone chip presence in 2015.

Credit Suisse’s John Pitzer has an Outperform rating and a $40 price target, but the Intel report after the analysts day was called “Structural Re-rating Very Much On Track.” He sees upside potential for both gross and operating margins. The firm’s estimates do not reflect all potential buybacks, which at somewhere close to $2 billion per quarter could add $0.05 to $0.10 in earnings per share. Pitzer continues to see $4.00 plus of earnings per share potential, and he thinks investors are still too hung up on PC exposure and are not valuing the significant barriers to entry, scale of investment and intellectual property and optionality around Intel’s Moore’s law lead.

S&P Capital IQ has a Buy rating and $39 price target. The firm said its buy recommendation reflects the view of improving fundamentals, attractive valuation and the company’s plan to return cash to shareholders. They said:

We remain optimistic about stabilization in the PC space, demand prospects in the enterprise space, and potential refresh of aging PCs. We see opportunities in both its server business and ‘Internet of Things’ category. We think Intel’s next generation chips and recently announced partnerships in Asia significantly improves its competitiveness in the mobile device market, where it has substantially underperformed. We expect INTC to grow cash flows to enable it to continue to raise its dividend and repurchase shares.

Note that there was at least one downgrade, so the hype and bullishness is not universal and not everyone was as enthralled. Credit Agricole’s CLSA downgraded Intel from Underperform to Sell with a price target of $31. Analysts warned of destocking risk in the first half of 2015, and the firm believes that Intel’s forecast for 2015 mid-single-digit revenue growth was optimistic.

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Here is what did not happen in 2014 that could have wrecked Intel. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) won the refresh for the processor and graphics package for both the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One. This was very negative for Intel at first, but Intel has survived, and AMD simply did not win what Intel did in the core processor upgrade cycle for PCs after Microsoft jettisoned support for Windows XP earlier in 2014. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) was supposed to keep winning and winning in smartphones, but perhaps emerging markets are going for cheaper mobile processors in smartphones and tablets. Well, it turns out that Qualcomm shares are down just over 2% so far in 2014, while Intel shares are up more than 41%.

That market cap conundrum for Intel versus Qualcomm has also rectified itself in the process. Intel is expected to have $58 billion in revenues for 2015 and its market cap is $172 billion. Qualcomm is expected to have almost $28 billion in 2015 revenues and its market cap is $119 billion. We were a bit perplexed when Intel’s market cap was inverted versus Qualcomm’s, and that was just this past May.

Are we being too optimistic? If so, it is only a continuation of what we saw in the past. We had been much more bullish in 2013 when we called for Intel to rise to $30 or higher. And our 2014 Intel outlook at the start of the year showed that analysts were still far too conservative at that time.

Trading at $35.60, Intel has a 52-week trading range of $23.40 to $36.46. Its consensus analyst price target is only about $35.50, but the highest price target for the stock is still closer to $50. Intel also trades at less than 15 times next year’s expected earnings. Stay tuned.

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