Technology

What to Expect Beyond Apple Earnings: iPhone 6, Watch and More

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report its first-quarter earnings Tuesday after the markets close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $2.59 in earnings per share and $67.50 in revenue. The first quarter from the previous year had $2.07 in earnings per share and $57.59 billion in revenue.

Ahead of Apple’s earnings, Wells Fargo moved up its estimates due to a favorable holiday season for the tech giant. Wells Fargo increased its estimates to $2.77 in earnings per share from $2.54, as well as $69.1 billion in revenue from $66.6 billion. The increase is making an adjustment for higher gross margins and average selling price (ASP) due to mix, as well as higher unit expectations.

Other analysts are also boosting their estimates the first quarter. The two main reasons for this are China and higher ASPs. Analysts at UBS estimated that China accounted for 36% of iPhone shipments in the quarter, compared with the United States, which accounted for 24% of shipments. If that turns out to be true, then Apple CEO Tim Cook’s prediction that China would overtake the United States in iPhone sales will have come true sooner than he probably expected.

The headline number for how many iPhones were sold globally appears to now be around 70 million units. At UBS, analyst Steve Milunovich expects sales of 67 million units at an ASP of $685. According to Milunovich, a consensus Street estimate calls for 65.5 million units at $680. Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha told Forbes that he expects iPhone volumes of 71 million units in the first quarter, while Brian Blair at Rosenblatt Securities has modeled sales of 72 million units.

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Wells Fargo raised Apple’s valuation range to $100 to $110 from $92 to $102, while maintaining its Market Perform rating. The firm expects a strong outlook for Apple going forward, but it has some concerns:

We believe these are known and worry about tougher compares, lack of new large carriers to add, increasing challenges to differentiate the next cycle, and questions about memory strategy on mix.

For the 2015 full year, Wells Fargo increased the earnings per share estimate to $7.87 from $7.39, and for 2016 it was increased to $8.37 from $8.26. For 2015, there are consensus estimates of $7.84 in earnings per share and $213.03 billion in revenue from Thomson Reuters.

Apple peaked at almost $120 back in November, and while the broader market has risen — Apple has not. In fact, Apple’s stock chart has faced hard resistance at $114 since early in December. Apple was trading above $113 late on Monday. Its 50-day moving average is close by at $112.30, and the 200-day moving average is all the way down at $98.63. Those levels will change slightly on Tuesday.

There are of course other considerations above and beyond the iPhone record sales. Expectations have already been set very high there, but what about the coming Apple Watch? What about iPhone accessories, and what about sales of apps, downloads, music and more?

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Shares of Apple were up about 0.5% at $113.63 in the second half of Tuesday’s trading. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $123.33 and a 52-week trading range of $70.51 to $119.75. Apple still has the largest market cap in the world at roughly $665 billion.

Be advised that some firms have moved their earnings releases as a result of a large blizzard hitting New York, and it is very possible that more earnings might be shifted around.

 

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