Technology
Full 360-Degree Apple Earnings Preview: iPhone, China, Watch and Beyond
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to report its quarterly earnings after the close of trading on Tuesday. The preliminary analyst and media reports have signaled that expectations have been growing and growing on each new milestone. That means that investors likely will have be extremely impressed to be kept happy, and that means exceeding estimates is almost certainly a must for Tim Cook and his team.
24/7 Wall St. has put together a 360-degree preview for Apple investors. This goes far beyond the consensus earnings estimates. We have included many individual analyst views, what options traders are bracing for, what the stock chart is saying, Apple’s shareholder capital program, what currency could mean for Apple, and also what to consider above and beyond the actual earnings.
Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $2.60 in earnings per share (EPS) and almost $67.70 billion in revenue. In the first quarter of the previous year, Apple posted EPS of $2.07 and revenue of $57.59 billion. Note that these estimates keep climbing ahead of the report — and Apple’s guidance for this quarter was between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion in revenue, with gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%. Apple also ended its most recent quarter with some $155 billion in cash and short-term and long-term investments combined.
Apple does offer guidance for one quarter ahead, but the guidance is almost always deemed to be intentionally conservative (if not sandbagged). The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for the coming quarter are $2.01 EPS and $53.80 billion in revenues, versus $1.66 EPS and $45.65 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
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The first consideration is that Apple shares were down nearly 3% in late-morning trading ahead of earnings. This is not likely a concern about Apple as much as it is what happened to Microsoft and other Dow giants after they reported earnings. The tailwind of 2014 is viewed as in the past, and currencies are hurting almost all exporters.
If you don’t think this currency issue matters much, remember that Apple said last quarter that international sales accounted for 60% of the period’s revenue.
So, who has moved up expectations? Wells Fargo raised its estimates due to a favorable holiday season. It is also looking for higher gross margins and average selling price and overall unit sales expectations. UBS recently forecast that China accounted for 36% of iPhone shipments in the quarter. If so, then Tim Cook’s prediction that China would overtake the United States in iPhone sales may have come true sooner than expected.
24/7 Wall St. has looked at various reports, and the current headline number for how many iPhones were sold appears to now be around 70 million units. Credit Suisse sees iPhone volumes of 71 million units in the first quarter, and a boutique analyst now expects that 72 million units were sold or shipped.
Apple’s chart brings up issues of concern ahead of earnings. The stock peaked at almost $120 back in November, yet it was down close to $110 in late morning trading ahead of the earnings report. Apple’s stock chart has faced hard resistance at $114 since early in December, and now the 50-day moving average is $112.27. Apple’s 200-day moving average is all the way down at $98.81.
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On top of iPhone sales being the best launch ever, 24/7 Wall St. will be looking for news on other sales of iPhone accessories, apps, downloads, music and more. We also will be looking for updates on the coming Apple Watch.
Options traders are far more skewed to the buy side on Apple, at least the call option open interest in the close strike price calls dwarfs that of the put options. Even the midday options volume on Tuesday was skewed to call option trading volume over put option volume, and that is even with Apple shares and the broad market having negative performance on the day. Those options traders also appear to be looking for a stock move in either direction of up to $4.25 or $4.50 as well.
On the cash management and capital return program, Apple’s most recent quarter saw spending of over $20 billion in the quarter alone for share buybacks and dividends. Apple further said that this brought its cumulative capital returns to shareholders to about $94 billion. It seems a given that this will be well above $100 billion after the latest numbers are disclosed.
Shares of Apple were down 2.1% at $110.68 shortly before the noon hour on Tuesday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $123.51 and a 52-week trading range of $70.51 to $119.75. Apple still has the largest market cap in the world at roughly $665 billion.
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Here are several other issues to consider for Apple ahead of, and beyond, its earnings report:
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