What to Expect From Twitter Earnings

By Paul Ausick Updated Apr 28, 9:57AM EDT · Published Feb 5, 12:20PM EST

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Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2014 earnings after markets close Thursday. Consensus estimates call for quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06 and revenues of $453.14 million. For the full year, analysts are expecting EPS of $0.09 on revenues of $1.38 billion.

Just about the only thing that matters to investors and analysts is whether Twitter’s user numbers are growing and how fast they are growing. Even the more buoyant ratings are typically accompanied by a reference to how much and how fast Twitter can grow its user base. Secondarily, analysts try to figure out how the company can monetize those users.

In December Argus initiated coverage with a Buy rating and price target of $44. The analysts expect annual EPS of $0.10 and revenues of $1.37 billion for 2014 and $0.34 in EPS on revenues of $2.32 billion in 2015. Also in December, JMP Securities started Twitter with an Outperform rating.

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When Twitter unveiled new group messaging and video features late last month, the introduction was greeted with a big “So what?” Shares dropped more than 4% the next day. It did not help that Taylor Swift’s account was hacked that day and in an internal memo obtained by The Verge, the company’s CEO said:

We suck at dealing with abuse and trolls … and we’ve sucked at it for years. We lose core user after core user by not addressing simple trolling issues we face every day.

Expect to read and hear some strong words about trolls in the earnings release and on the conference call. Twitter’s appeal to celebrities like Swift is, perhaps, its strongest feature and it simply cannot afford to lose people like Swift and Lady Gaga. CEO Dick Costolo is right to say that the company has to do better.

Looking at the company’s numbers is a unique experience. Twitter’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is 123.49 and the price-to-book value is 7.22. The company’s enterprise value divided by EBITDA is nearly negative 30. No one will care though if the company posts a big gain in user numbers.

And one last word on recent chatter that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) may acquire Twitter: unlikely. Twitter’s market cap of more than $26 billion is probably too rich even for Google.

Twitter’s stock traded at $41.78 in the noon hour on Thursday, within a 52-week range of $29.51 to $58.98. The consensus price target on the stock is around $50.00.

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About the Author Paul Ausick →

Paul Ausick has been writing for a673b.bigscoots-temp.com for more than a decade. He has written extensively on investing in the energy, defense, and technology sectors. In a previous life, he wrote technical documentation and managed a marketing communications group in Silicon Valley.

He has a bachelor's degree in English from the University of Chicago and now lives in Montana, where he fishes for trout in the summer and stays inside during the winter.