Why Intel Fallout Is Muted in Key PC and Semiconductor Giants

By Chris Lange Published Mar 12, 10:40AM EDT

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Is there good news or bad news in the semiconductor and PC cycle sectors? Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) disappointed the market after revising its outlook lower for the first quarter of 2015. 24/7 Wall St. has already identified the actual guidance and outlook with color, and has already given an analyst synopsis of fallout elsewhere that was ahead of Intel’s confession. What investors need to be focused on now is the extra fallout that will be seen in PC-related companies — and the moves do not all exactly line up with what your first expectations might have been.

The key thing is that Intel’s mid-point is now $900 million lower than its preliminary first-quarter revenue guidance. It also said that other guidance was withdrawn, which sets the stage for lower 2015 guidance at the next earnings report.

So, what further fallout should investors be considering?

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is perhaps the most obvious loser, along with Intel. It is not just the WinTel alliance of days in the past either. Intel specifically named the Windows XP among the top excuses. Maybe Intel’s move away from being so PC-dominant is still a good idea. Microsoft shares felt some pressure from this announcement, as they were down about 1.2% at $41.46 just after the opening bell. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $47.81 and a 52-week trading range of $37.51 to $50.05.

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Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) is Intel’s only real processor rival for the PC and server markets. AMD did not win with the Windows XP refresh cycle like Intel did last year. If PCs are weak, chances are high that they did not pick up much ground. AMD even has a stock performance that would back that up. AMD shares were down 2.6% at $2.77, in a 52-week trading range of $2.14 to $4.80. The consensus analyst price target is $3.11.

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is the king of DRAM, and DRAM is a key component for all PCs. As we have noted, Micron’s growth days and stellar turnaround has been seen, so now Micron has an identity crisis: will investors want to own it as a value stock again rather than a growth stock? We pondered this when questioning the share buyback impact. Micron was not shocked like other companies in the supply chain, as its shares were up 0.7% at $28.07, in a 52-week trading range of $21.02 to $36.59. Analysts are calling a consensus price target of $42.35.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is the king of capital spending and capital equipment up and down the entire semiconductor chain. Its lead times are often not exactly in line with semiconductor and processor trends due to many moving parts, but if one leader is suffering it would make sense that the other leader is suffering with it. Plus, when Intel said “all other guidance,” it did not give any changes to its capital expenditures (capex) guidance. So, if it did not update capex then maybe that is good, which would explain why Applied Materials was not materially lower on the day. In fact, shares of Applied Materials were relatively flat, down just under 0.5%, at $23.36, after the Intel revised its guidance. The consensus price target is $27.58. The 52-week trading range is $18.27 to $25.71.

ALSO READ: Short Sellers Lose Conviction in Major Semiconductor Stocks

Just because one industry leader lowers its outlook, it does not automatically translate to market carnage with related companies, as some might expect. As was shown in the fallout from Intel, the reactions were mixed. Sometimes the market adequately acts as a barometer for sentiment, two or three quarters out. Sometimes.

Finally, Intel shares are dealing with the worst out of this group as they were down 3% at $31.37 Thursday morning. The stock is continuing to pull off its 52-week high that it set back in December. The 52-week trading range is $24.40 to $37.90. Intel has a consensus analyst price target of $37.38.

About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.