Years after buying the pioneering personal computer (PC) division of International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Lenovo has turned the company into the largest PC manufacturer in the world. Despite its part in an industry that has been undermined by smartphones and now wearables, Lenovo has the global market share lead and likely will not give it up. Its position in the huge Chinese market almost ensures that.

The PC industry as a whole has not been healthy recently, particularly because of the spectacular growth of smartphone sales. Gartner Research analysts point out:

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 71.7 million units in the first quarter of 2015, a 5.2 percent decline from the first quarter of 2014, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

“The PC industry received a boost in 2014 as many companies replaced their PCs due to the end of Windows XP support, but that replacement cycle faded in the first quarter of 2015,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “However, this decline is not necessarily a sign of sluggish overall PC sales long term. Mobile PCs, including notebooks, hybrid and Windows tablets, grew compared with a year ago. The first quarter results support our projection of a moderate decline of PC shipments in 2015, which will lead to a slow, consistent growth stage for the next five years.

“Desk-based PC shipments declined rapidly, with business desk-based PCs being impacted the most. Mobile PCs are being driven by a separate underlying replacement cycle, which led mobile growth in the first quarter. PC replacements will be driven by thin and light notebooks with tablet functionality. Our early study suggests strong growth of hybrid notebooks, especially in mature markets, in 1Q15.”

After years when Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell jockeyed for the global market share lead, HP now has taken that position regularly. HP recently said its management has decided to spin out its PC and printer businesses, which are considered the strongest among its several divisions.

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HP and Dell continue to sit just behind Lenovo in share, although Dell continues to lose ground:

Lenovo and HP were the only two vendors among the top five worldwide that experienced an increase in PC shipments in the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 1). Lenovo experienced its strongest growth in EMEA and the U.S. It has become one of the top providers of hybrid notebooks, especially its Yoga line in mature markets. HP performed moderately well in the first quarter, and it kept its top position in the U.S. and EMEA. HP increased share in the U.S., but in EMEA the share delta from Lenovo, the second-largest vendor in the region, narrowed compared with 4Q14.

The perpetual hope among PC companies is that a new version of Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows will re-energize sales from time to time. With a new version just beyond the horizon, sales are likely to increase again.

Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 1Q15 (Thousands of Units)

Company	1Q15 Shipments	1Q15 Market Share (%)	1Q14 Shipments	1Q14 Market Share (%)	1Q15-1Q14 Growth (%)
Lenovo	13,584	18.9	12,846	17.0	5.7
HP	12,442	17.3	12,143	16.0	2.5
Dell	9,038	12.6	9,527	12.6	-5.1
ASUS	5,306	7.4	5,462	7.2	-2.9
Acer	5,183	7.2	5,562	7.3	-6.8
Others	26,179	36.5	30,153	39.8	-13.2
Total	71,733	100.0	75,694	100.0	-5.2

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