Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings Monday after the markets close. Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $2.16 in earnings per share (EPS) on $56.06 billion in revenue. In the same period of last year, Apple posted $1.66 in EPS on $45.65 billion in revenue.

The consensus forecasts from Wall Street analysts indicate that as part of Apple’s upcoming report, there will have been between 45 million and 55 million iPhones sold in the most recent quarter. Anything at the low end of these predictions exposes Apple’s shares to a significant sell-off. Anything well above and closer to 60 million should support a continued rise in the share price.

Investors have focused on the Apple Watch as the company’s next critical product. Sales of the smartwatch might hit 5 million in the first month, if Apple has created a product that is as good as many early press reports say. Since Tim Cook became CEO, Apple has depended almost exclusively on the iPhone for surging sales. Nothing shows that more than the quarter that ended on December 27. iPhone unit sales hit 74.4 million, which drove $51.2 billion of Apple’s quarterly total of $74.6 billion for the period. The ratio has to remain or improve.

Wells Fargo expects a beat in the fiscal second quarter and an inline outlook. Estimates are driven by strength in iPhone sales plus channel inventory fill to build in roughly an extra two weeks. The brokerage firm expects this to offset any potential softness in MacBook sales driven by a potential pause due to the new MacBook announcement in March, as well as iPad softness. Wells Fargo’s gross margin forecast of 40.2% may be slightly aggressive, given potential for a lower end iPhone mix shift relative to last quarter and warranty accruals.

ALSO READ: Why Apple Dividend Hike and Buybacks Matter More Than Earnings

Regarding currency, Apple appears to have raised some pricing to offset currency impacts, though potential negative impact on unit elasticity bears watching.

Buried among the news of Apple’s successful launch of its smartwatch, Cook’s $65 million payday and a forecast that the public company’s market cap might reach $1 trillion is that, in the final tally of net income among American companies for 2014, Apple was the county’s most profitable firm.

Shares of Apple were up 1.7% at $132.52 Monday afternoon ahead of earnings. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $142.13 and a 52-week trading range of $81.79 to $133.60.

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