Key Analyst Sees Over 20% Upside in Google After Earnings

The price target on already Buy-rated Google was raised to $850 from $675 by Argus, implying an upside of 22% from current prices. Also the firm maintained its 2015 earnings per share (EPS) forecast at $28.38 and 2016 EPS forecast at $32.16.

As Google has transitioned to a unified advertising model across both desktop and mobile devices, the independent research firm noted a decline in cost per click, although the decline has been moderating.

Argus noted in its report:

Google’s growth has been driven by its ability to accelerate revenue as advertising dollars shift to the internet, as well as by its extraordinary positioning as the search engine leader. The company is now in the midst of another paradigm shift — from desktop to mobile.

The company has ramped up hiring and made acquisitions in order to expand on its core internet search business and to develop fast-growing businesses like mobile and local search. These investments have led to margin compression in recent quarters, though the company has maintained its dominant market share in core search and ramped up its display, YouTube, and mobile businesses.

Advertising makes up roughly 90% of Google’s revenue. As Google has transitioned to a unified advertising model across desktop and mobile devices, there has been a decline in cost per click, even as paid click growth remains strong and the traffic acquisition costs (TAC) margin has been stable. In the second quarter, total advertising revenue rose 12% year-over-year, though it fell 1% sequentially. At Google sites, paid clicks grew 10% year-over-year in the second quarter as growth at partner sites fell 2%.

Google’s management sees the company gaining traction, particularly in mobile advertising, YouTube video ads, and the programmatic advertising platform DoubleClick. The company is also making changes in its search algorithm policy that it says improve the user experience and boost efficiency, even to the detriment of its content partners.

Shares of Google were down 0.5% at $695.97 on Monday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $716.55 and a 52-week trading range of $490.91 to $697.80. Google shares are up about 32% year-to-date, compared to a 3% increase in the S&P 500 and a 5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology index.

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