The Driving Force for Apple Earnings

By Chris Lange Published Jul 21, 11:25AM EDT

Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter financial results Tuesday after the markets close. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $1.81 in earnings per share (EPS) on $49.31 billion in revenue. In the same period of the previous year, it posted EPS of $1.28 and revenue of $37.43 billion.

According to WhisperNumber.com, Apple’s EPS is expected to be $1.83, a slight beat above current estimates. This falls within the range of a low of $1.70 to a high of $1.97. Apple has a 71% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper number in 48 of the 68 whisper earnings reports).

It will be interesting to see how Apple stacks up against Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) for this earnings report. Microsoft has a whisper number of $0.56 for its EPS. There are consensus estimates of $0.56 in earnings per share (EPS) on $22.06 billion in revenue. In the same period of last year, Microsoft posted EPS of $0.55 and revenue of $23.38 billion.

So the question for this quarter is how many Apple Watch units Apple sold in the most recent quarter. Did iPod sales top iPad sales? Has the Mac cut into sales of tradition personal computers? None of those things matter if Apple did not sell 46 million or so iPhones.

ALSO READ: UBS’s 4 Top Technology Stocks to Buy Now

Wall Street research by and large shows Apple will sell 44 million to 48 million iPhones. Anything below 46 million will send the stock into a spiral, dropping it well down from its nearly 52-week high. CNBC expects that Apple will ship 47.3 million iPhones in this quarter, as well as 3.9 million Apple Watches.

Apple is coming off perhaps its most spectacular quarter. The company’s revenue in the April quarter reached $58 billion, with iPhone sales of 61 million. Apple management said that revenue in the most recent quarter would be $46 billion to $48 billion. Apple is notorious for offering very conservative forecasts. Some analysts believe that this tactic allows the company to almost always beat expectations, which in turn drives its stock higher.

Analysts weighed in on Apple prior to its earnings report:

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Buy rating with a $195 price target.
Wells Fargo reiterated a Market Perform rating.
Cowen reiterated an Outperform rating with a $140 price target.
Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating with a $155 price target.
JPMorgan reiterated a Buy rating.
Credit Suisse reiterated a Buy rating with a $145 price target.

ALSO READ: The 6 Most Shorted Nasdaq Stocks

Shares of Apple were down 0.8% at $131.01 Tuesday before earnings were reported. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $149.28 and a 52-week trading range of $93.02 to $134.54.

About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.