Volume already topped by about 15% the daily average of around 21 million shares.
When the company reported second-quarter results last week, the company’s new, interim CEO Jack Dorsey, who is a founder of Twitter, and also CEO of privately held Square, said that innovation at Twitter had all but disappeared and that the website would be unlikely to grow its user numbers for some time to come. Investors did not want to hear that.
There may also be some disenchantment with Dorsey himself. After all, there are plenty of rumors that Square is preparing an IPO, which may be distracting Dorsey from setting things straight at Twitter — or vice versa, if you’re an investor in Square.
Twitter’s caught in the social media chicken-or-egg question: which comes first, user growth or revenues? The traditional way Web companies have been valued is first on their user bases and only later on their revenues. The thinking is grow users and revenue will follow, provided the company is offering something people want. In Twitter’s case the “people” are advertisers.
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Dorsey seems to be admitting that Twitter has lost some of its luster for advertisers and that it has to get the mojo back if the company is to continue growing users and ultimately profits.
The company introduced a variety of new ad products in the first half of the year, but none has moved the needle much either in terms of users or revenues.
The CEO situation may need to be solved first, though, unless another company makes an offer that Twitter cannot refuse. Twitter has about 672 million shares outstanding. If the share price falls to around $25, an offer of $20 to $22 billion might sound good to investors. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has often been mentioned as a possible buyer, perhaps for the sole reason that the search company could afford to pay cash at that valuation. Whether the two companies are a good fit seems to matter less. But if Twitter cannot figure out a way to grow its base and monetize it, there is little reason for investors to believe that Google can make it happen.
Twitter needs to fix its own house. First, probably, is hiring a new CEO focused on just Twitter, one who can hit the ground running and make decisions quickly about what needs to be done. Next, give the advertisers what they want without turning off the user base. Feeding more ads to users has a limit after all. Finally, if neither of these moves gets the job done, cozy up to Google.
Twitter traded down about 6% at $29.21 shortly after the noon hour on Monday. The stock’s new 52-week range is $28.91 to $55.99. The consensus price target is $41.39.
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