You can feel the market pushing back every day, and when momentum stocks report good numbers and forward guidance and still get sold off, the buyers are getting tired. The research team at Jefferies is focused each week on finding good value stock calls, and it makes sense for investors in an increasing risky and expensive market to rotate to solid value ideas.
While some of the stock picks may not seem like the quintessential value variety, what the analysts are looking for is not only valuation from a fundamental and technical metric, but also companies that are in the right sectors. We found four this week that could hold outstanding upside for investors.
Calix
This company is in the technology communication equipment industry and could prove to be a big winner. Calix Inc. (NYSE: CALX) is a global leader in access innovation. Its Unified Access portfolio of broadband communications access software, systems and services enables communications service providers worldwide to transform their networks and become the broadband provider of choice to their subscribers.
The Jefferies analysts were very positive on the company’s second-quarter earnings and note that the stock has been weak for some time, but they feel based on other companies’ results there is a very positive tone on the overall commitment to broadband and Calix should benefit. With second-quarter results beating expectations and third-quarter guidance very solid, the company may be poised for a move higher soon.
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The Jefferies price target for the stock is $11. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is $10.25. Shares closed Tuesday at $8.27.
CommVault Systems
This stock is down almost 28% this year. CommVault Systems Inc.’s (NASDAQ: CVLT) exclusive single-platform architecture gives companies unprecedented control over data growth, costs and risk. Commvault’s Simpana software suite of products was designed to work together seamlessly from the ground up, sharing a single code and common function set, to deliver superlative data protection, archive, replication, search and resource management capabilities.
Over the past year the company announced numerous additions to its product portfolio that enable organizations to thrive in the next wave of cloud adoption by turning data residing in public and hybrid clouds into a powerful strategic information asset. With the release of CommVault Cloud Disaster Recovery, CommVault Cloud Development and Test, CommVault Cloud Gateway and CommVault Cloud Replication, the company is addressing several critical needs demanded by enterprises today.
The Jefferies team notes that the company again posted disappointing numbers and it is now trading at a very cheap multiple. They also make that case that at this cheap level, the company could be a takeover candidate as other peers have been.
The Jefferies price target is $45 as the firm upgrades the stock to a Buy rating. The consensus target is $43.50. Shares closed Tuesday at $37.78.
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Oracle
This is old-school large cap tech stock that is very reasonable valuation-wise for investors. Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) trades at 14.6 times estimated 2016 earnings and still provides solid free cash flow yield. Oracle plans to make almost all of its services available via the Internet by mid-October, as the database-software company changes its business model to fit a new competitive landscape. Around 65% of Oracle’s products are available on the cloud today, and that is expected to climb to 95% by the time the company holds its annual Oracle OpenWorld conference in October.
The Jefferies analysts point out that the stock is down 11% so far this year, and they expect version 2 of the 12c database to drive an Exadata product cycle, and plain and simple believe that is not sufficiently discounted in the stock. They did lower the near-term cash flow because of the cost of the very aggressive move to the cloud, but they are boosting long-term growth and upgrade the stock to a rating of Buy.
Oracle investors are paid a 1.51% dividend. The Jefferies price target is posted at $50, and the consensus target is $46.42. Shares closed Tuesday at $39.66.
Western Digital
This company is a leader in the total addressable hard disk drive market at a very impressive 43.6% and is also a Franchise Pick at Jefferies. Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC) reported earnings that were better than expected on the earnings-per-share side but missed on revenues. During the second quarter, Western Digital shipped 48.5 million hard drives at an average selling price of $60. While selling prices for the quarter were down from $61 in the previous quarter, they were up from $56 in the year-ago quarter.
The drop off in the personal computer (PC) business helps to spur initiative in the company’s cloud business, and the Jefferies analysts estimate that the company’s gross profit contribution from Business Critical (cloud) drives will exceed that of PCs by the second half of next year. Of all the stocks beaten down due to the poor PC environment, the Jefferies team feels Western Digital may have the most upside potential.
Western Digital investors are paid a 2.33% dividend. Jefferies has a $116 price target, and the consensus target is much lower at $101.95. Shares closed Tuesday at $84.39.
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When these kinds of top stocks are put on sale, there is very little risk for long-term, patient investors. Some have solid and mature franchises, and others are good values and could be potential takeover targets. All these stock picks could have big return potential and less downside risk than crowded momentum stocks.
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