Technology

When Apple Has 2 Analyst Downgrades and a Weak Chart at the Same Time

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the worst drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors have been growing worried about how its chart is looking, but they have seen Apple downgraded by two major brokerage firms over the past week. Investors have to start wondering if this is the front end of a serious downgrade wave, after seeing quarter after quarter in which analysts raised their price targets. This also comes at the same time that Apple’s stock chart has broken handily under its 200-day moving average.

One thing that investors must have already figured out is that Apple is now solely a product of the iPhone’s growth and future success. The Apple Watch has been nothing more than a media side-show. Unfortunately, most people just do not want to wear an Apple Watch, and one person (yours truly) would sure like for Apple to have not used an iPhone icon up where you cannot delete the Apple Watch icon.

The more recent downgrade from this week was via Jefferies. The firm has a Hold rating on Apple and it trimmed its price target to $130 from $135. This is in part due to Apple’s exposure to China, and the fresh yuan valuation cut makes Apple products that much more expensive locally — or less profitable, relatively, for Apple. The firm also thinks there is an incremental loss in investor confidence over just how much more Apple can grow ahead.

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Apple’s big, or real, downgrade was last week, when Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its official rating on Apple to Neutral from Buy, while cutting the prior price objective down to $130 from $142. While we covered this call in much more detail, the call from Wamsi Mohan specifically pointed out a deceleration in iPhones creating near-term headwinds for Apple. The driving force, also pointed out then, was that 25% of iPhone sales were in China.

Merrill Lynch did note that the firm still sees the long-term opportunity being significant. Meanwhile, Apple is not exactly without its bulls. This week we have seen Morgan Stanley and UBS defend their bullish views on Apple.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating for Apple with its price target of $155. This is based on gross margin expansion, as well as the belief that the Apple iPhone upgrade cycle may be only about one-third of the way through.

UBS has a Buy rating and kept its $150 price target alive. The firm thinks that iPhone 6 may have slowing sales growth, but the belief here is that this trend still has not even matured. UBS also thinks Apple shares are cheap from a valuation view, when considering the purchase commitments remain strong for the iPhone 6.

Last week we further discussed the implications of the Apple chart breakdown. The 200-day moving was an issue then and it remains an issue now. Apple’s 200-day average is at $120.28 and the 50-day moving average is up at $124.51.

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