Technology

Jefferies Issues Top Virtual Reality Stock Picks Going Into 2016

Jon C. Ogg

Published: December 22, 2015 4:48 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 3:47 pm

If one area of future technology can garner just as much or even more attention than video games, it is virtual reality. This can revolutionize communications and interaction with technology on more fronts than can easily be counted.

Now the research team at Jefferies has issued a report with virtual reality stock picks. Jefferies even titled the report “Virtual Reality Handbook: The Next Computing Platform.”

The long and short of the matter is that Jefferies views 2016 as a watershed in computing. It sees at least three Virtual Reality Platforms launching within the next 6 months.

Jefferies expects that gamers will be the early adopters, but the team believes that virtual reality will ultimately transforms business processes in many (if not most) industries. Its own analysis suggests the potential for annual unit shipments of 10 million in 3 years to 5 years, and it even sees 50 million unit shipments over a 5 year to 10 year horizon.

The long and short of the matter is that Jefferies sees these companies potentially winning in the hundreds of millions of dollars to billions of dollars.

AMD & NVIDIA

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) were listed as the near-term beneficiaries here. This should go without surprise considering that the ATI (AMD) and NVIDIA graphics cards and graphics processor units (GPUs) are winning right now – ATI/AMD in video games, and NVIDIA in PCs and other platforms.

Jefferies sees VR shipments translating to as much as $3 billion in additional sales to NVIDIA and AMD, or $750 million in additional non-GAAP operating income. Jefferies has not yet modeled any upside to its projection of $1.1 billion in operating income for NVIDIA and a loss of $180 million for AMD in 2015.

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INTEL

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is viewed as a longer-term beneficiary. Jefferies sees virtual reality platforms requiring higher performance microprocessor units (MPUs). Intel did not win on the Sony and Xbox platforms in the last cycle (AMD won), but this may have been a cost issue and due to other factors at the time the video game console refresh cycle took place.

FACEBOOK & OCULUS

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is viewed as the winner in the Internet for VR. That is largely due to the acquisition of Oculus Rift and Gaming front. Jefferies said:

Facebook’s $2 billion pre-revenue purchase of Oculus two years ago tells us that social networking may have the biggest potential – already there is an app being developed that will allow users to select an avatar and go to virtual nightclubs to meet friends, dance, and maybe even more.

Taking the Oculus product as a benchmark, we estimate the goggles (Oculus Rift) will retail around $350 and the hand controllers (Oculus Touch) for $150. If you are a gamer with a high end graphics card (>$300), then your VR entry cost is about $350. However, if you are non-gamer starting from scratch, Oculus will steer you to a $1,000 VR ready desktop PC – so your starting point is $1,500.

On Facebook, CEO Mark Zuckerberg suggested that he expects to ship hundreds of thousands of units in 2016. If Jefferies assumptions are correct, with Facebook selling half a million units priced between $350 and $500, this implies $175 million to $250 million of incremental low-margin Oculus revenue for Facebook.

ACTIVISION-BLIZZARD & ELECTRONIC ARTS

In the world of video games, Jefferies sees Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) and Activision-Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) being the key beneficiaries. Jefferies does not expect much AAA video game content from Activision and Electronic Arts until at least 2017. That is when the install base could start to approach critical mass. The team said:

Management teams across the sector sound optimistic on VR from a medium-to longer-term perspective, but they have yet to green-light the creation of AAA content for these platforms. We see two issues. First, the publishers will likely wait until the install base reaches a critical mass before they invest in VR in earnest. Second, the tried-and-true keyboard & mouse control scheme has to be completely rethought for VR, and there will be some trial and error before standards emerge.

We note video game publishers have already been creating highly realistic 3D worlds like World of Warcraft. With Virtual Reality, gamers finally have the opportunity to be placed directly inside these worlds instead of viewing them through a 2D monitor.

SONY

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) was viewed as a VR winner on the platform front due to efforts in the PS4. Jefferies expects that Sony will benefit from better PS4 sales, and that it will get a bump in sales of additional hardware — like an additional processing unit, head mounted displays, controllers, and from software sales.

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Before investors just run and jump into virtual reality, there are some risks. Video game play and excessive video watching can already be dangerous, and they may have very enhanced risks in the world of VR. Risks that could impede VR Adoption are latency, nausea and actual health issues.

While this report is not complete with price targets and historical trading data, Jefferies did show that the companies mentioned in this report all have “Buy” ratings by the firm’s analysts.